I think about my own youth pretty often – I’m 22 hinging on 23, and it seems crazy to me to think about what I already am but also the fact that I have a long, long road of growth and development ahead. I would prefer to think this is not at all dissimilar with the current wave of great young players in the NBA. Thanks to free time, I’ve ranked the 15 best 23 and under players in the NBA based on several past performance metrics combined with future WARP projections based on 538’s CARMELO tool.
Of course, you’ll notice that there are a lot of problems with this formula. I am no mathematician. My best answer to give you is a mostly-unbiased look into what the statistics are telling me, and mostly it’ll line up with your own eyes. Past performance stats don’t necessarily give you the best picture of where a player is going, though: that’s why we need metrics to measure out those predictions.
There were two imperfect answers to this assignment:
- Using past performance metrics such as VORP, RPM, WARP, On/Off ratings, etc.;
- Using predictive metrics such as 538’s CARMELO tool.
So, in imperfect mathematical fashion, I’ve merged both answers with preferences to the future predictions to see what they could be as opposed to what they already are. However: this is a ranking that features both. The rankings for each past and future are provided here and here. The three rules for this assignment:
- All players listed must be 23 years of age or younger on October 1st, 2016. (I was willing to fudge a few days here or there.)
- Each player must have played at least 1000 minutes in 2015-16.
- They also must have a Usage Rate of 15% or higher, to rule out offensive albatrosses.
Lastly, some honorable mentions of near-misses who could very well jump onto this list by next summer: Gary Harris, Clint Capela, Myles Turner, Trey Lyles, and Zach LaVine.
15. Evan Fournier, SG/SF, Orlando Magic (5 years, $85 million), 23 years old
Never Google is a happy addition to this list and was one of a slim few reasons to watch the Magic after December. The franchise itself is a management disaster, now on their fourth coach in two years and now having traded possibly their two most talented players in Tobias Harris and Victor Oladipo. As a fully intended consequence, this freed up more shots for NG, despite unwilling doofus Scott Skiles bringing him off the bench for eight games in January and February. NG was fun before the All-Star break (44.5% FG, 39.8% 3s, 14/3/3 statline in 31.5 MPG), but after, he was capable of some very exciting performances (such as this) en route to the following: an 18/3/3 statline on 49% from the field, including 40.3% from 3 and a 61.1 TS%. Those are pretty good stats, and any time you end up on the same small list as Stephen Curry, you’re doing well.
14. Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards (5 years, $128 million), 23
This is pretty easily the player and contract I dislike the most on this list. The Beal max deal was a terrible decision from Wizards management from the moment it was signed, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if they’re trying to find a trade-deadline taker on him by 2019. But: with all that said, Beal is still a good basketball player. He’s just never healthy. Beal has missed 81 games over his four years in Washington so far, and while there’s only so much that can be done about that, it’s an alarming thing to miss 25% of your team’s games on average. But, again: Beal can do some amazing things as evidenced in the video above, and, when available, he is absolutely capable of helping John Wall carry a poor Wizards roster to the #8 seed or a little better. (Again, not his fault.) Plus, last year, he finally decided to cut down the long twos (36.1% of his attempts in 2013-14, 17.9% last season) and shoot more threes (career 39.7% rate), which is a very positive step in the right direction. Just don’t make me watch him or the Wizards play more than twice a year.
13. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Detroit Pistons (1 year, $3.7 million), 23
Caldwell-Pope seems like an obvious candidate for a huge salary upgrade next summer, and regardless of if it’s with Detroit or not, he probably deserves it. Few players in the league seem to be more quietly important than KCP, who has a career On/Off rating of +7.2 per 100 possessions and is Detroit’s best perimeter defender by a significant margin. That’s almost more of a compliment to the Pistons, who are building what should be a very tough defense to beat over the next three years. It would be a missed opportunity to not recognize KCP’s importance in shutting down key opponents such as the ones you’ll see in the video above. He still isn’t really a good shooter (30.9% from 3 last year on 369 attempts), but he’s 23, so there’s time. (As a Pistons fan, time cannot move fast enough for me.)
12. Cody Zeller, C, Charlotte Hornets (1 year, $5.3 million), 23
Obviously the most shocking inclusion on this list by a wide margin. I can’t remember a single Cody Zeller play for the life of me other than when he got his ass kicked in the Sweet 16 by Syracuse when he was at Indiana. But – and I’m just as shocked by this as you are – he’s a huge benefit for the Hornets on the floor (+7.0 and +3.2 On/Off ratings the last two seasons), his defense has always been very stout (1.8 DRPM or better all three seasons), and look how often his name pops up in the Hornets’ best lineups. His PER has steadily climbed from 13.1 to 14.1 to 16.1. He skated in past my 15% Usage rule with a 15.4% Usage Rate, so he’s still a bit invisible offensively. But I don’t know if it matters much: he runs the pick-and-roll with Kemba well, his rim protection is strong for a team that needs it, and he’s reliable at almost everything on the court. He’s the perfect Just Another Guy to have on your 4 seed.
11. Rodney Hood, SG, Utah Jazz (2 years, $3.8 million), 23
This dude is AWESOME. I could watch Rodney Hood play basketball for hours at a time – he just makes it look like so much fun! He was the best offensive player behind Gordon Hayward on last year’s snake-bit Jazz team that, when we’re in 2019 and this team is a perennial 2 or 3 seed, will seem confounding that they didn’t make the playoffs. Hood is already a solid, reliable shooter from all areas of the court (as you’ll see in the Lakers highlights above), and he quietly seems like a super-dark horse contender for the hallowed 50/40/90 club: Hood went 47/36/86 last year and he’s still just 23. Would I like to see him drive the ball even more and become a more diverse offensive player? Absolutely. But he’ll probably do that anyway regardless of my advice.
10. Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves (2 years, $13.5 million), 21
Subjectively, I would put Wiggins significantly higher on this list: I think he has most of the tools required to be a very good player in the modern NBA. But objectively, I totally understand the criticisms: he’s still a poor three-point shooter (30.4% career), he’s atrocious defensively (-2.1 career DRPM), and while he took a solid step up from his rookie year, he still takes way too many twos outside the paint (37.5% of his shots) and his rim efficiency actually went down last season (66.5% to 64.8%). So there are strong reasons to be skeptical of Wiggins and his future. But…look what he’s doing here. Not many players above the age of 23 can do some of the offensive moves he does. It’s all about putting the complete package together, and when he does, I’d imagine he’ll jump towards the top of this list. He’s got a phenomenal pull-up stroke already – just fill out the rest!
9. Otto Porter, Jr., SF, Washington Wizards (1 year, $5.9 million), 23
The summary of that video is pretty accurate to how Otto Porter can be summed up: “Is it because he kind of looks and plays like a savvy veteran already? Or because he plays for the Wizards? Maybe it’s due to the fact that he was only ever supposed to be a role player and now that he is one people have decided that they want something more out of a top 5 pick? Let’s go with ‘All of the above’ on this one.” Porter fills his role extremely well and did indeed put together the season of a quality role player this year: a 47/37/75 statline from the field, 1.8 RPM, strong defense (105 steals in 75 games and a 1.0 DRPM), and his first positive On/Off rating (+2.7). Porter feels destined to either be underappreciated by the impotent Wizards front office and released to a better team with better management in free agency or to get a 5 year, $100+ million contract from Washington that many will ridicule. Regardless, I hope he ends up in a role appropriate to his playing style: the fourth scoring option on a contender where he’s allowed to guard multiple positions. Basically, this is the modern NBA’s Derrick McKey, if slightly lesser.
8. Steven Adams, C, Oklahoma City Thunder (1 year, $3.1 million), 23
Like several other players on this list, Steven Adams is due to get a massive bump in pay next summer, and for good reason. The Thunder don’t come within four minutes of knocking a 73-win team out of the playoffs without him, and for most of the Warriors-Thunder series, Golden State struggled mightily to stop the pick-and-rolls he ran with Russell Westbrook and others. He was also phenomenal defensively in that series and gave Draymond Green all sorts of struggles, both internally and externally. Adams is pretty limited in his offensive versatility – 72% of his shots come at the rim – but he was a huge part of a better-than-they-looked Thunder team all year long (+7.8 On/Off) and was their best interior defender by a healthy margin. His next development will be to get better at free throws (55.1% career) and to get better at boxing out; his rebounding numbers are oddly average for such a strong rim protector. But without a doubt, this is a max-contract guy in summer 2017, and it will make sense.
7. Aaron Gordon, SF/PF, Orlando Magic (2 years, $9.8 million), 20
If you’re a casual NBA fan, you know Aaron Gordon for one thing: dunking. That’s okay, because Aaron Gordon is easily the second-best dunker in the NBA. (Congrats, Zach LaVine – you’re non-frustratingly good at something!) It’s also okay because at this point, Gordon has started a total of 45 games in two seasons. But it’s not okay if we don’t mention that he’s had four coaches in two years, his GM (Rob Hannigan) might be in over his head, and his team blew up around him without him having any say in it. Now, he’s a 6’9″ power forward forced to play the 3 because his GM decided a frontcourt of Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic was what was necessary to get a 35-win team to the playoffs. (Spoiler: it is not.) So please, root for Aaron Gordon to get out of this situation, because he is rapidly shooting towards being a top-25 player in the league by 2020, when he’ll be 24 and hopefully on the team of his choice. Please watch this awesome performance of his.
6. Nerlens Noel, PF/C, Philadelphia 76ers (1 year, $4.4 million), 22
Wait, I’ve got something for this guy somewhere…where is it…
Ahhhhh. There it is! Terrible offensive player, future Defensive Player of the Year. Eventually he’ll have to figure out how to make shots, but maybe he’ll do that when he’s traded to a playoff team next year. God, I can’t wait.
5. Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, New York Knicks (3 years, $14.5 million), 21
If you are reading about the NBA on a little-read blog, you have watched Kristaps Porzingis play basketball. Multiple times, probably. So why waste the time of readers who already know this man’s appeal? Porzingis can already do the following things:
- Be 7’3″ and hit 81 threes in his rookie season
- Hold the best On/Off rating of any player on his team not named Carmelo Anthony (+5.2 v. Melo’s +5.4)
- Have the 5th best Block% in the NBA (5.0%)
- Average nearly two blocks per game
And when his body fills out, he will be able to do even more: draw fouls seemingly every other possession, hit threes with average regularity (I anticipate a career 3P% of around 35-36%), and get even more offensive rebounds. Instantly one of the most valuable players in the entire league after one year of basketball.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, PG/SG/SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks (1 year, $3 million), 21
It’s very difficult to put into words how Giannis makes the devoted NBA fan feel when he’s playing well: excited, jubilant, overjoyed, in awe, afraid. I can’t think of any recent player who could reasonably be described as a 6’11” point guard, unless you want to call Kevin Durant that. No one’s physical abilities are more astounding than Giannis right now. There isn’t a player I enjoy watching more when he’s playing well. And yet…he still can’t hit threes (25.7% in 2015-16), he struggles with fouls (3.3 per 36 minutes), and his free throw rate has dropped steadily since his rookie year (though it’s still high at 40.4%). In reverse: his PER has jumped from 10.8 to 18.8 from 2014 to now, he’s the best defender and best offensive player on his team, he was the only reason to watch the Bucks last year, he’s already a top-30ish player by almost any metric you choose, and he’ll be 21 until December. The only reason he’s stuck here at fourth is because the next three players are truly that impressive.
3. Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets (3 years, $4.2 million), 21
This dude is amazing. There isn’t a better passing frontcourt player in the game already. I’m able to say this after year one because he’s backed it up already – this video will tell you more. (Nick Sciria also did a great thread on Jokic recently.) He has the best contract value of anyone on this list, being worth nearly $217 million over the next five years while earning just $4.2 million. I’m not sure how, but everyone just kind of collectively missed on this kid except for Denver, and they are forever better off for it. He was already the second-best rookie in a strong upper tier behind Karl-Anthony Towns last year; Porzingis just got the better media coverage for very obvious reasons. Also, there’s weirdly several reasons to watch the Nuggets now: Jokic, Emmanuel Mudiay developing, Gary Harris, Will Barton, an interesting coach in Mike Malone. I nearly forgot: pretty good TV guys as well.
2. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves (3 years, $20 million), 20
This dude is even more amazing. He’ll be one of the five best players in the league (if not three) by the end of the decade if not before. I can’t believe Minnesota has all these assets.
1. Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans (5 years, $119.5 million), 23
A few notes on Anthony Davis: it is not Anthony Davis’s fault that he now officially has the most incompetent management in all of basketball. It is not Anthony Davis’s fault that he is on a roster with zero other quality NBA players. It is even less of his fault that he is required to score 30 points and bag 15 rebounds in order for the Pelicans to beat a team on the fringe of the playoffs. It is even less of his fault that 40 and 20 is required to beat a contender, and even that doesn’t work sometimes. This is the biggest waste of superstar talent since Tracy McGrady in early-2000s Orlando, and possibly since Kevin Garnett in Minnesota, and even more possibly since LeBron James in Cleveland the first time around. They are actively hindering Davis’s development by putting him on a 76ers-level roster. What’s amazing is I still think Davis can drag a healthy 76ers roster to the playoffs. He’s that amazing, and if he gets back on track after a disappointing 2015-16, he’ll be the best player in the world by 2019. Anything less would be a crime to his talents.
Thanks for reading – if you have any further suggestions for lists or articles I can write up, leave them in the comments.
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