Finding the upset: week 4

We’re rolling large! After a Thursday night stumble in which Houston soundly defeated my Cincinnati upset pick (though Cincinnati did lead entering the fourth quarter), all three upsets singled out by my model rang true on Saturday. The two weeks I’ve ran out the Excel-based metrics model that draws from Bill Connelly’s S&P+, ESPN’s FPI, and the Massey Ratings, the model has nailed all five upsets that have happened between a Top 25 opponent and an unranked opponent.  It even sold me on North Dakota State over formerly #13 Iowa, which is a gigantic deal! Thanks to Mark Helfrich being a poor head coach, we came through on Nebraska over #22 Oregon. Even California and Sonny Dykes beat #11 Texas.

As a note, the normal Las Vegas underdog win rate is around 21%. I’m at 83% after two weeks and six games (5-1). This is meaningless because small sample sizes are terribly meaningless, but if I can end up breaking 60% by season’s end, we might have something really special here.

This week, the models expect anywhere from 3.55 losses in 12 games (S&P+) to 3.04 (Massey). Collectively, they average an expectation of 3.3 upsets this weekend. We finished one below expectation last weekend, so just as it was last week, we’ll include three upset picks and a fourth stretch pick as sort of a regression to the mean.

For the first time, I’m including my metrics below, with Top 25 v. Top 25 teams included and highlighted:

And without, which is much more important to this article.

Spreadsheet legend for the numbers on the top right: the top number is the total number of expected wins from that group; the bottom number is the percentage likelihood that the noted group goes undefeated.

As usual, the groups by win percentage are listed below:

• 40-49% (1-1 last week): #24 Utah (vs. USC) (47.3%)
• 50-59% (1-1 last week): #7 Stanford (at UCLA) (55.6%), #18 LSU (at Auburn) (58.8%)
• 60-69% (3-0 last week): #16 Baylor (vs. Oklahoma State) (62.1%), #20 Nebraska (at Northwestern) (65.2%), #13 Florida State (at South Florida) (66.2%)
• 70-79% (1-0 last week): #9 Washington (at Arizona) (75.8%), #5 Clemson (at Georgia Tech) (79.9%)
• 80-89% (0-1 last week): #4 Michigan (vs. Penn State) (82.4%), #3 Louisville (at Marshall) (85.5%)
• 90-99% (8-0 last week): #6 Houston (at Texas State) (91.6%), #1 Alabama (vs. Kent State) (99.4%)

The expected win totals for each of these groups:

• 40-49%: 0.473 of 1
• 50-59%: 1.144 of 2 (32.7% chance of 2-0)
• 60-69%: 1.935 of 3 (26.8% chance of 3-0)
• 70-79%: 1.557 of 2 (60.6% chance of 2-0)
• 80-89%: 1.679 of 2 (70.5% chance of 2-0)
• 90-99%: 1.91 of 2 (91.1% chance of 2-0)

Now, let’s note that the 60-69% group went 3-0 last week. That’s unlikely to happen again, not least because Georgia needed a fourth and 10 touchdown from a true freshman QB with a minute left to beat Missouri, but also because of these probabilities. The odds of this group going 3-0 last week were just 25.3%; the chances of the group moving to 6-0 over two weeks would be 6.7%.

Anyway, let’s make some picks. Based on the above probabilities in the Excel spreadsheet, here’s the expected number of wins for each fifth of the Top 25, broken down further:

• Top 1-5: 3.47 of 4 (56% chance of 4-0)
• Top 6-10: 2.23 of 3 (38.6% chance of 3-0)
• Top 11-15: 0.662 of 1 (66.2% chance of 1-0)
• Top 16-20: 1.86 of 3 (23.8% chance of 3-0)
• Top 21-25: 0.473 of 1 (47.3% chance of 1-0)

If we’re looking for three upsets, we’re going to hit the following categories, as they’re the most likely to find upsets: Top 6-10, Top 16-20, and Top 21-25. Adjusting this for the above win probability categories and composite ratings that show us one upset win for each of the three lowest groups in win percentage (40-49%, 50-59%, and 60-69%), we get the following most likely upsets: USC over #24 Utah, UCLA over #7 Stanford, and Oklahoma State over #16 Baylor.

Let’s rationalize these as best as we can, starting with the pick I hate the most. USC has looked about as excited to start the Clay Helton regime as I am when my friend group decides on Regional Tex-Mex Restaurant of the Week. This isn’t quite as much about USC’s strengths as it is about Utah’s very prominent weaknesses. The Utes currently rank 98th in offensive S&P+ and have yet to drop more than 34 points on any opponent despite drawing Southern Utah and San Jose State in two of their first three games. New QB Troy Williams has already thrown four interceptions, and he’ll be playing a USC secondary that is far and away the least-awful part of a very disappointing defense thus far. If Utah wins this, it’ll be because they topped 200 yards on the ground, not because of anything Williams does or doesn’t do. I don’t see at all how Utah can score enough to put USC away, so I’m taking Sam Darnold and company on the road here.

UCLA, much like their crosstown partners, are also waiting to post an impressive performance of some kind, though at least UCLA forced overtime with their opening week SEC sparring partner. UCLA’s offensive points per game is lagging far behind their statistical expected output, which usually means a breakout is nigh. Why not against a Stanford defense performing far ahead of what the stats expect? Regression to the mean is very real in sports, and I think this might be a great test case for it. Critical to UCLA’s success: force Ryan Burns to pass and you will win. He’s yet to attempt more than 18 passes in either of Stanford’s first two games, and Christian McCaffrey has yet to really look like Christian McCaffrey.

Oklahoma State is a great buy-low. They came out flat in a weird noon home game against a secretly good Central Michigan team, won a close one anyway, then lost on a play that shouldn’t have happened. They play a Baylor defense that allowed 36.3 points per game to top 25 offenses in 2015 and likely isn’t any better. Oklahoma State rebounded from the CMU loss by dumping 45 points on a Pat Narduzzi defense against Pittsburgh. I think people are selling this OSU team in the wrong spot because of the wacky loss; win this and they have a great October schedule to get back in the national conversation.

Now, if we’re anticipating a fourth upset to make up for the lack of a fourth last weekend, we need to go big again. We found gold in the 80-89% range with North Dakota State last weekend, but it was situationally perfect: Iowa at home with a mediocre offense against a great coach and team that was underrated because of being in the FCS. I would prefer to fade that this week, as expecting the rough equivalent of a 1 in 7 event to happen two weeks in a row is fool’s gold. That’ll rule out #4 Michigan and #3 Marshall. We’ve already picked out the three groups most likely to find an upset with one upset from each level of confidence, so that takes away #18 LSU, #20 Nebraska, and #13 Florida State. It is incredibly unlikely that a 90+% team loses, so remove #6 Houston and #1 Alabama. That leaves us with 70-79% and two games: #9 Washington at Arizona and #5 Clemson at Georgia Tech.

Let’s go back and look at that AP Top 25 breakdown: we’ve already bought our upsets from Top 6-10, Top 16-20, and Top 21-25. By taking out Florida State from consideration, we’re ruling out Top 11-15. That leaves the Top 5. Which one of these teams is the most likely team to lose from the Top 5, though it’s far from a certainty? Clemson. Let’s throw a dart and have some fun with a game in a weird and uncomfortable situation for the favorite: Georgia Tech over #5 Clemson on a Thursday night in Atlanta.

Here’s my rationale: Clemson technically has all of four days to run and prepare for a triple option offense. They finally looked like the Clemson everyone anticipated seeing this year on Saturday, but it was against woeful South Carolina State. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, dropped 38 points and 516 yards on a top 20 Vanderbilt defense. Paul Johnson is quietly pretty successful against Clemson and Swinney, having more wins against the Tigers than anyone not named Florida State. ACC favorites in Thursday night games are also just 7-6 over the last three years. I’m not totally positive this one happens, but after upsets coming from the 90-99% and 80-89% groups the last two weeks with one per week, it looks like it’s 70-79%’s turn this time out. Sorry, Clemson. (Alternately, if this one misses: sorry, Washington.) As the metrics only see three upsets, I don’t advise this one, but it’s worth a roll of the dice towards the season total. We’ll use this as a subjective test vs. the metrics, and I will still count it to my total.

To recap, our picks last week: Houston over #6 Cincinnati (miss), California over #11 Texas (make), North Dakota State over #13 Iowa (make), and Nebraska over #22 Oregon (make). Through two weeks, we’re 5-1.

This week: Utah over #24 USC, UCLA over #7 Stanford, Oklahoma State over #16 Baylor, and Georgia Tech over #5 Clemson (stretch pick, subjective choice).

Finding the upset: week 3

Last week’s first edition of upset spotting worked so well that the streets demand a new episode. Well, not exactly – I just really like doing these. New week, new probabilities!

My two upset picks went 2-0 this Saturday both on ridiculous finishes, with Central Michigan winning on a play that shouldn’t have happened and Arkansas using a wide receiver pass to get to overtime to beat TCU. I don’t know that we’ll need that much luck again, but we’ll see.

Anyway: out of the Top 25 teams, eight are playing each other, which leaves 17 teams that will be playing unranked teams. ESPN’s FPI system ran back at me with the following: based on their win probabilities, 13.19 of these 17 teams will defeat their (likely) underdog opponents. Bill Connelly’s S&P+ sees almost the exact same, coming in at 13.38. This week, we’re going to use the Massey Ratings as well, which I use for lots of prediction work. They roll in with a prediction of 13.17 games won out of 17, which makes every system in near-harmonious agreement. Just like last week, we’ll merge the metrics for a group of ~3.75 teams that will lose this weekend. The odds of all 17 teams going 17-0 this weekend are hilariously miniscule: 0.8%. Upsets are coming.

The trick: finding what 3.75 (alternately, four) of these teams will lose.

This week’s categories of victory likelihood, per the merged metrics:

• 40-49%: #17 Texas A&M (at Auburn) (43.2%), #22 Oregon (at Nebraska) (45.6%)
• 50-59%: #11 Texas (at California) (51.7%), #25 Miami (at Appalachian State) (59.7%)
• 60-69%: #6 Houston (at Cincinnati) (61%), #16 Georgia (at Missouri) (64.3%), #7 Stanford (vs. USC) (64.5%)
• 70-79%: #20 LSU (vs. Mississippi State) (76.1%)
• 80-89%: #13 Iowa (vs. North Dakota State) (86.6%)
• 90-99%: #4 Michigan (vs. Colorado) (91.3%), #21 Baylor (at Rice) (95.2%), #9 Wisconsin (vs. Georgia State) (95.8%), #15 Tennessee (vs. Ohio) (95.9%), #24 Arkansas (vs. Texas State) (97.1%), #8 Washington (vs. Portland State) (98.5%), #23 Florida (vs. North Texas) (98.6%), #5 Clemson (vs. South Carolina State) (99.9%)

Now, the number of games that each of these groups would win on average:

• 40-49%: 0.888 of 2 (19.7% of winning both)
• 50-59%: 1.114 of 2 (30.1% of winning both)
• 60-69%: 1.898 of 3 (25.3% of going 3-0)
• 70-79%: 0.761 of 1 (76.1% of winning)
• 80-89%: 0.866 of 1 (86.6% of winning)
• 90-99%: 7.723 of 8 (75.2% of going 8-0)

Based on this, we can expect to see at least three upsets, one from each of the three least confident percentage lines. Based on the odds, I’m not sure we will see a ground-shaking upset by the numbers, but anything can happen. To achieve a fourth, we’ll have to reach a bit from one of these groups, but we can get to that later.

Our initial upset picks for week 3 are as follows: Nebraska over #22 Oregon from the 40-49% group, California over #11 Texas from 50-59%, and Cincinnati over #6 Houston from 60-69%.

My reasoning for each, starting with Nebraska: Oregon’s defensive efficiency against two very poor offenses and teams (2-9 in FCS UC Davis and a Virginia team that just lost to an FCS team) has come in at an unadjusted 84th in America per ESPN. Tommy Armstrong is unbelievably frustrating, but the odds on him having a strong game here are very high. Another key stat: under head coach Mike Helfrich, the Ducks are 2-5 (0-3 OOC) in games where they have between a 40-60% chance to win, suggesting a lack of consistent ability to win close games. The projections expect almost exactly one loss on average from teams ranked 21-25 this week, and Oregon has far and away the worst odds of winning their game from that group.

California is a less certain pick for me, as my friend Harrison knows very well of my considerable disdain for one Sonny Dykes. I think he’s a smart offensive coach who has zero idea how to win at a Pac-12 program, simply because he has zero idea what he wants defensively. I’ll set that aside for this week alone, because their 48.3% odds of winning are both alarming and eye-opening. I do like QB Davis Webb a lot, but this comes from projection systems being very skeptical of one home win against a poor Notre Dame offense meaning the true comeback of Texas football. Also, Charlie Strong is 2-4 in his career in September road games against Power 5 opponents. For teams ranked 11-20, the projection systems anticipate a 4.178-1.822 record, and Texas’s odds were the worst of the 50-59% range.

Cincinnati over Houston will appear to be a very bizarre pick to just about everyone, but the projection systems were unusually strong in pushing back against a Top 10 team: neither FPI nor S&P+ give Houston greater than a 58% chance to win, and Massey’s 72% even comes with the caveat that they expect it to be a one-touchdown defeat for a pesky Cincinnati team. But: the collected projections anticipate around 0.89 losses from the six Top 10 teams playing this week against unranked opponents, and it was either Cincinnati on a Thursday night in a weird spot for Houston or expecting USC to win a big game after two very disappointing performances. My comfort in this pick comes from a combination of this being a terrible situation for Houston (four days rest, a near seven-hour game this past Saturday, Ward Jr. battling shoulder issues, and a long travel week from Houston to Cincinnati) and of Cincinnati’s surprisingly strong offense, anchored by QB Hayden Moore (7.7 YPA, 147.5 QBR) and a solid rushing game. The fun part: Cincinnati allowed six yards per play to Purdue, but has picked off opposing quarterbacks seven times through two games. I look forward to seeing if Tommy Tuberville has the capability left to force Greg Ward, Jr. into tough situations. I would also prefer to take Missouri over Georgia here, but this is a test for these systems and for my own subjective biases.

There’s the three big picks I’m making this week. Now, let’s get a little weird for the fourth.

Percentage-wise, the Top 11-20 is much more likely to lose twice than once this week, so our fourth upset is most likely to come out of this group. Here’s where it gets wild: the chances of all ten 70-99.9% teams going undefeated are just 49.6% (still high, but more likely that one loses than doesn’t), the number of games this group wins on average is 9.35 of 10, and the number of upsets expected from the 40-69% range is 3.1, which means we’ve exhausted our supply there. To find the fourth .65 of an upset, we’re going big. Keeping it in the Top 11-20 range, this means eliminating #11 Texas (who we’ve already picked against), #16 Georgia, and #17 Texas A&M. Congrats! That leaves us with the following three schools to pick from for a giant loss: #13 Iowa (vs. North Dakota State), #15 Tennessee (vs. Ohio), and #20 LSU (vs. Mississippi State).

Tennessee has by far the best odds of beating their opponent, and I feel confident and unbiased in ruling them out from an earth-shattering loss. Teams that were underdogs to Kansas do not beat good teams, sorry. So, let’s pick from Iowa or LSU for the stretch upset. There are solid cases for both this weekend: Iowa was nowhere near as good as the polls suggested last season (finished 47th on Football Outsiders) and still isn’t very trusted by advanced metrics this year, polling at 35th on FO and 25th on ESPN’s FPI. LSU had an unbelievably bad loss to Wisconsin to open up the season and still doesn’t have a quarterback. They actually both have similar odds on ESPN to defeat their lower-tier opponent: LSU at 86.4% for a Mississippi State team that lost to South Alabama, Iowa at 90.9% for FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, who would be ranked above 46 FBS teams right now. I expect neither of these upsets to happen, if I’m being honest.

But: when my hand is forced and I have to pick one to happen, why not North Dakota State over #13 Iowa? Do you really trust Iowa? Do you really think they’re going to do the undefeated thing again? Have you watched Kirk Ferentz football at any point before 2015? (A reminder that an 11-2 Iowa team came within a blocked field goal of losing to FCS Northern Iowa in 2009.) Also, NDSU has won five in a row against FBS opponents, is coming off of their fifth straight FCS national championship, and Iowa has not gone undefeated in out of conference play in the Kirk Ferentz era. Again, I don’t anticipate this happens – I have much more faith in #17 Texas A&M losing to Auburn – but this is worth a flyer.

As a reminder, last week’s picks were Central Michigan over #22 Oklahoma State and Arkansas over #15 TCU, both of which came through. At 2-0 on the season, we’ll roll the dice with Nebraska over #22 Oregon, North Dakota State over #13 Iowa (stretch pick), California over #11 Texas, and Cincinnati over #6 Houston.

Projecting the best viewing weekends of the 2016 college football season

There are some disclaimers that probably should be noted at the top of this post: the tagline you see on the site says ‘170 days of NBALP,’ or NBA League Pass. I love the NBA and primarily write about basketball, because it comes much easier for me. Writing about my other favorite sport, college football, has proven to be near impossible for me at times; the mythology and coverage of the sport is such that I’m afraid of mishandling it much more than I am confident in providing an original viewpoint.

Lucky for me, writing about college football schedules is no major frame of art on the level of a Picasso or a Kanye West; perhaps more on the level of a Tame Impala openly ripping off others to make a flaccid and mildly agreeable recipe. (Sorry, fans of this band who I have been subjected to excess marketing of for four years now. It is not your fault.) To make sure I tried to get the best of both stories, I used both a subjective and an objective take, neither my own view: Phil Steele’s end-of-year Top 40 rankings and Bill Connelly’s freely available S&P rankings.

To my joy and surprise, both came back with enough variance that I can provide both rankings. The top two weeks as judged by Connelly’s stats ranked fifth and seventh in the Steele rankings, while Steele’s #1 and #2 came in third and fifth with S&P. I have no idea why this makes me so fascinated, but I also plan out my weekends months in advance during football season so as to avoid unnecessary circumstances in which an important moment can be missed.

For the final calculation of weeks, I used a simple equation: Tier One games + 0.5(Tier Two games) = result. Tier One games are any game featuring two projected Top 25 opponents facing each other; Tier Two games are:

• Any game between projected Top 21-40 opponents
• A top 26-40 team playing a Top 25 team on the road
• A Top 50 home dog playing a Top 30 team within 7 projected points

Basically, Tier Two games are all about low-end Top 25 teams or teams solidly located in the Others Receiving Votes category. These games are still watchable, but certainly not on the level of the Tier One games.

Finally, I averaged the two calculations together to try and give you an average picture of what the best weeks of this season should end up being. This inspired an idea that I’ll go into on a subsequent post: what are the best weeks of college football (as judged by the AP Poll Archive) since 2005 (the last season that Matt Sarzyniak‘s site goes back to)? The three readers of this site will see that soon, with any luck.

Your weeks are ranked in ascending order below, so as to make an inverted pyramid as I was taught in high school and college journalism classes and so as to show that I learned something from said classes. Tiers are in parentheses, and (T1/T2) represents where one system believed a game was Tier One and the other determined Tier Two.

1. Week 13, November 22-26 (Average rating: 8.5 good or better games)

Phil Steele: 8.5, S&P: 8.5

I think Week 13 and Week 5 are the only two weeks that both systems came up with the same number of viewable games for, which makes sense to me. One week is agreeably great by everyone’s standards; the other is agreeably mediocre. Anyway, Week 13 is awesome and has a lot of awesome games spread throughout its long, Thanksgiving weekend:

• LSU at Texas A&M (T1), Thursday
• NC State at North Carolina (T2), Friday
• Arkansas at Missouri (T2), Friday
• TCU at Texas (T1/T2), Friday
• Nebraska at Iowa (T1/T2), Friday
• Florida at Florida State (T1), Saturday
• Michigan at Ohio State (T1), Saturday
• Michigan State at Penn State (T2), Saturday
• Notre Dame at USC (T1), Saturday
• Auburn at Alabama (T1), Saturday
• Mississippi State at Ole Miss (T1/T2), Saturday

That’s eleven games total worth watching in a 48-ish hour span, with 5 absolutely must-watch games and four of those occurring in one day. What a great weekend to be alive.

2. Week 11, November 8-12 (Average rating: 8)

Phil Steele: 9, S&P: 7

There are no true brightly-blinking MARQUEE GAMES!!! at this point in time, but it seems like there are about 12 A-minus games. Also, huge week for the Pac-12!

• Utah at Arizona State (T2), Thursday
• Michigan at Iowa (T1/T2), Saturday
• Pittsburgh at Clemson (T2), Saturday
• Baylor at Oklahoma (T1), Saturday
• West Virginia at Texas (T2), Saturday
• Stanford at Oregon (T1), Saturday
• USC at Washington (T1), Saturday
• Auburn at Georgia (T1), Saturday
• Mississippi State at Alabama (T1/T2), Saturday
• LSU at Arkansas (T1/T2), Saturday
• Ole Miss at Texas A&M (T1), Saturday

Also eleven games worth watching and five must-watch games, but the best game of this week (either Stanford at Oregon or USC at Washington) would be about the third-best game of Week 13.

3. Week 3, September 15-17 (Average rating: 7.75)

Phil Steele: 6.5, S&P: 9

There’s a lot of good games that could become great here as well, but there is a ton of name power to be found.

• Florida State at Louisville (T1), Saturday
• Alabama at Ole Miss (T1), Saturday
• Oregon at Nebraska (T1/T2), Saturday
• Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State (T2), Saturday
• Texas A&M at Auburn (T1), Saturday
• Mississippi State at LSU (T1/T2), Saturday
• Michigan State at Notre Dame (T1), Saturday
• Ohio State at Oklahoma (T1), Saturday
• USC at Stanford (T1), Saturday
• UCLA at BYU (T2), Saturday

Look at all those high-profile and very important games! Six Tier One games, which I believe is the most of any week. If nothing else, this will be my personal favorite week of the year…that I have to miss for a wedding between two people I love very much. Can’t win them all.

4. Week 1, September 1-5 (Average rating: 7.75)

Phil Steele: 8, S&P: 7.5

It’s very remarkable that an opening weekend called one of the greatest weekends of all time slots fourth in these rankings, but some context is required. In my friend group, there was instant surprise to the announcement of Oklahoma-Houston, a game between two 2015 top ten teams, being a noon game. However: neither ranking system I used seems to particularly buy into Houston very much (Phil Steele 30th in Power Poll, S&P 54th) and both really love Oklahoma as a legitimate top 5 team, which may lend some credence to my growing thought that this is a blowout-in-waiting. The other factor in this being a somewhat overhyped weekend: there are no Tier One or Two games until Saturday at noon, only Oklahoma-Houston in the noon slot is really worth watching, and games like Notre Dame-Texas and BYU-Arizona (I’m serious) are suffering from just a little too much name recognition. But! It’s still a very good schedule.

• Oklahoma vs. Houston (T2), Saturday
• LSU vs. Wisconsin (T2), Saturday
• UCLA at Texas A&M (T1), Saturday
• North Carolina vs. Georgia (T1/T2), Saturday
• USC vs. Alabama (T1), Saturday
• Clemson at Auburn (T1), Saturday
• Notre Dame at Texas (T1/T2), Sunday
• Florida State vs. Ole Miss (T1), Monday

5. Week 4, September 22-24 (Average rating: 7.25)

Phil Steele: 5.5, S&P: 9

This week had easily the largest variance in rankings, and I think the explanation of why lacks much difficulty. Look at the below list of games and tell me how many you could go from “somewhat interested” to “very interested” in depending on the results of prior games:

• USC at Utah (T2), Friday
• Nebraska at Northwestern (T2), Saturday
• Pittsburgh at North Carolina (T2), Saturday
• Oklahoma State at Baylor (T1/T2), Saturday
• BYU vs. West Virginia (T2), Saturday
• Penn State at Michigan (T2), Saturday
• Wisconsin at Michigan State (T2), Sautrday
• Stanford at UCLA (T1), Saturday
• Florida at Tennessee (T1), Saturday
• LSU at Auburn (T1), Saturday
• Georgia at Ole Miss (T1), Saturday
• Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (T1/T2), Saturday

There are a lot of games just prior to these that have massive implications on this week’s national importance: USC-Alabama, USC-Stanford, Nebraska-Oregon, North Carolina-Georgia, Oklahoma State-Pittsburgh (yes), Penn State-Pittsburgh (also yes), LSU-Wisconsin, Michigan State-Notre Dame, UCLA-Texas A&M, Tennessee-Virginia Tech, Clemson-Auburn, Florida State-Ole Miss, Arkansas-TCU. This weekend could be one of the greatest of the last decade, or it could be Just Another Weekend. I have no idea how this shakes out right now, but a Saturday in October (otherwise a dead month) with a potential six Top 25 vs. Top 25 matchups is a fantastic thing to hope for.

6. Week 6, October 5-8 (Average rating: 6.5)

Phil Steele: 7, S&P: 6

This one, in comparison, looks easy to see the highs and lows of.

• Texas vs. Oklahoma (T1/T2), Saturday
• Notre Dame at NC State (T2), Saturday
• Florida State at Miami (T1/T2), Saturday
• Virginia Tech at North Carolina (T2), Saturday
• BYU at Michigan State (T2), Saturday
• Washington at Oregon (T1), Saturday
• UCLA at Arizona State (T2), Saturday
• LSU at Florida (T1), Saturday
• Alabama at Arkansas (T1/T2), Saturday
• Auburn at Mississippi State (T1/T2), Saturday
• Tennessee at Texas A&M (T1), Saturday

A massive Saturday for the SEC West. (And the East too, if you think about it.) Also a good Saturday for could-be-very-important ACC games!

7. Week 10, November 1-5 (Average rating: 5.75)

Phil Steele: 6, S&P: 5.5

One massively important game to the entire college football landscape and then a lot of A-minus games. However, they could be pretty important if the ball bounces their way.

• Iowa at Penn State (T2), Saturday
• Nebraska at Ohio State (T2), Saturday
• Florida State at NC State (T2), Saturday
• Pittsburgh at Miami (T2), Saturday
• TCU at Baylor (T1/T2), Saturday
• Oregon at USC (T1), Saturday
• Florida at Arkansas (T1/T2), Saturday
• Alabama at LSU (T1), Saturday
• Texas A&M at Mississippi State (T1/T2), Saturday

The misfortune of CBS typically demanding (correctly so) that Alabama-LSU be broadcast in 8 PM Eastern prime time is the likelihood of Oregon-USC being a direct competitor at 8 PM that night on ABC. This isn’t going to be USC’s year of a return to dominance, but for them to be 6-2 and in the top 15 facing a top 8 Oregon team at 7-1 and in direct and heated competition for the Pac-12 North title would be a very important game for many teams. PlusThe solution: multiple televisions, or a laptop.

8. Week 9, October 27-29 (Average rating: 5.75)

Phil Steele: 5.5, S&P: 6

Less exciting than the next week, but more exciting than the previous…I think. This is generally what your average week will look like this season:

• Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh (T2), Thursday
• Miami (FL) at Notre Dame (T1/T2), Saturday
• Georgia vs. Florida (T1/T2), Saturday
• Nebraska at Wisconsin (T2), Saturday
• Clemson at Florida State (T1), Saturday
• West Virginia at Oklahoma State (T2), Saturday
• Baylor at Texas (T1/T2, Saturday)
• Michigan at Michigan State (T1), Saturday
• Washington at Utah (T2), Saturday
• Auburn at Ole Miss (T1), Saturday

It’s really almost perfect: decent ACC game on Thursday? Check. Presumably freezing Tier Two Big Ten game late in the day for no reason? Check. Historically competitive rivalries with at least one of the two teams underperforming their projected talent? Double check! Likely late-night overload of promising games between likely Top 15 (or 10) teams that have strong humiliation potential for one or both teams involved? CHECK!!!!!! Oh, and multiple Big 12 games throughout the day that go down to the last possession and shed years off of the lives of devoted fans? Check and check. West Virginia-Oklahoma State is this year’s dark horse candidate for best Vine game.

9. Week 8, October 20-22 (Average rating: 5.25)

Phil Steele: 4.5, S&P: 6

Oddly good Thursday slate to be found here, plus some other solid viewing experiences.

• Miami at Virginia Tech (T2), Thursday
• BYU at Boise State (T2), Thursday
• Ohio State at Penn State (T2), Saturday
• TCU at West Virginia (T2), Saturday
• Wisconsin at Iowa (T2), Saturday
• Utah at UCLA (T2), Saturday
• Texas A&M at Alabama (T1), Saturday
• Arkansas at Auburn (T1/T2), Saturday
• Ole Miss at LSU (T1), Saturday

Thanks to the SEC West for saving this week. Not sure what we’d do without you! There’s something oddly fascinating about a likely 7 PM LSU start where Hugh Freeze beats an undefeated Tigers team then loses at home to Auburn a week later. Subjectively, this would rank in my bottom three.

10. Week 12, November 15-19 (Average rating: 5.25)

Phil Steele: 5, S&P: 5.5

Blah week. I don’t have much to say about these, honestly.

• Louisville at Houston (T2), Thursday
• Virginia Tech at Notre Dame (T2), Saturday
• Miami at NC State (T2), Saturday
• Oklahoma State at TCU (T2), Saturday
• Oklahoma at West Virginia (T2), Saturday
• Ohio State at Michigan State (T1), Saturday
• USC at UCLA (T1), Saturday
• Oregon at Utah (T2), Saturday
• Arkansas at Mississippi State (T1/T2), Saturday

11. Week 5, September 29-October 1 (Average rating: 5)

Phil Steele: 5, S&P: 5

As a Tennessee fan, it gives me great joy (and great concern) to report that Tennessee’s three most visible games will be on the three worst weeks of the season. Better not screw it up. Someone please tell Butch Jones to hire a fourth-down coach.

• Stanford at Washington (T1), Friday
• Louisville at Clemson (T1), Saturday
• North Carolina at Florida State (T2), Saturday
• Texas at Oklahoma State (T2), Saturday
• Oklahoma at TCU (T1/T2), Saturday
• Wisconsin at Michigan (T2), Saturday
• Tennessee at Georgia (T1/T2), Saturday

What I’m saying is that if you have to get married in the fall and your team is not playing in one of these seven games…I won’t hold it totally against you. But I will also allow those in the audience to check their phones throughout the night in a semi-polite manner.

12. Week 7, October 13-15 (Average rating: 3.75)

Phil Steele: 3, S&P: 4.5

This is a good example of a weekend that looks very thrilling on the surface – three of these games will directly affect the national title race – but you’ll be very bored otherwise, especially at noon. A good weekend to actually go to a game, in case you’ve forgotten that’s doable.

• Mississippi State at BYU (T2), Friday
• Stanford at Notre Dame (T1), Saturday
• Ohio State at Wisconsin (T1), Saturday
• North Carolina at Virginia Tech (T2), Saturday
• Alabama at Tennessee (T1), Saturday
• Ole Miss at Arkansas (T1/T2), Saturday

Outside of the obvious three (and maybe a fourth with OM-Arkansas), not much to get excited about here. A couple games outside the national realm that could be fun but were solid Tier Three games: Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee (Saturday) and West Virginia at Texas Tech (Saturday).

13. Week 2, September 8-10 (Average rating: 2.5)

Phil Steele: 3, S&P: 2

This is simply horrific, and probably a crime against someone to follow up a very good opening weekend with easily the worst week of the season.

• Penn State at Pittsburgh (T2), Saturday
• Arkansas at TCU (T2), Saturday
• BYU at Utah (T2), Saturday
• Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (T2), Saturday

By my personal system, VT-Tennessee is the only game that could be reasonably pushed to Tier One…and it’s only because it’s in the middle of a NASCAR track. But the actual game will be poor – people are underestimating the effects that the distance of the stands and the overall odd layout of the field and track will have on quarterbacks. The team that runs better wins…which is very obviously Tennessee. Anyway, that’s beside my ultimate point: this week is horrid, skip it if you need to.

The aforementioned top 10 weeks ranking of the last 10 seasons will come soon.