This is a 2017-18 update of a simple and easy project I did last year: take the five projected starters for all 30 NBA teams, average their projected Box Plus-Minus by CARMELO, and rank the teams in each conference.
Teams’ projected over/unders for wins by Las Vegas are in parentheses:
Eastern Conference
- Cleveland (56.5)
- Boston (N/A)
- Milwaukee (42.5)
- Toronto (47.5)
- Charlotte (40.5)
- Philadelphia (40.5)
- Washington (45.5)
- Detroit (40.5)
- Orlando (40.5)
- Miami (40.5)
- Indiana (30.5)
- New York Knicks (34.5)
- Brooklyn (21.5)
- Atlanta (34.5)
- Chicago (29.5)
Western Conference
- Golden State (67.5)
- Houston (55.5)
- Oklahoma City (46.5)
- San Antonio (55.5)
- Minnesota (46.5)
- New Orleans (43.5)
- Denver (42.5)
- Utah (N/A)
- Los Angeles Clippers (34.5)
- Portland (38.5)
- Memphis (42.5)
- Dallas (34.5)
- Phoenix (25.5)
- Sacramento (N/A)
- Los Angeles Lakers (36.5)
Some observations:
Systems such as this will overvalue the impact one player may have in a lineup of duds. I believe this to be the case with the New Orleans Pelicans, who, on the surface, were still bad even after the DeMarcus Cousins trade. In fact, this small sample size treasure exists: post-Cousins trade, the Pelicans went 4-4 without Cousins playing and 7-10 with. Together, that’s 11-14 (36-46 pace full season), which isn’t much different from the average 25-game sample before (10-15). However, New Orleans outscored their opponents (+0.3 per 100 possessions) over those final 25 games, a stark improvement from the -3.2 Net Rating they posted in the first 57. They were average-ish defensively (108.1 DRtg, 11th full season), but much better on offense – 108.4 ORtg (16th full season) over the final 25 games compared to 104.7 (28th) in the first 57. If they’re average offensively and defensively, they probably won’t make the playoffs. But the chance of them making the playoffs is much higher than most think.
The Eastern Conference version of this is Orlando, who actually ranks 8th in non-minutes-adjusted starting lineups. This seems very wrong, considering this same team with minimal adjustments went 29-53 last year and should’ve been much worse (24-58 by Pythagorean W-L). But – HOWEVER! – there’s reasons to be optimistic.
- None of Orlando’s top five minute-getters in 2016-17 were older than 26.
- Terrence Ross is somehow still only 26, too.
- The projected starting lineup in 2017-18 for Orlando, by age: 23, 25, 26, 27, 22.
- No projected starter for Orlando ranks worse in Box Plus-Minus than -0.5. Pretty good! That’s better than all but three teams in the Eastern Conference.
Of course, Orlando’s best player by BPM (Aaron Gordon) comes in at a projected +1.2. That’s the fourth-worst top player in the conference. We’ll see on this one, but it makes me a lot more curious about the Magic than I was previously. My early guess is that it’ll take around 38-40 wins to make the playoffs in the East next year, and Orlando’s O/U is 40.5. Why not take a stab here?
Here’s a couple teams these rankings see as major sells: Washington and the Los Angeles Lakers. (I’m letting Memphis slide, because 42.5 is pretty absurd for a team with no Randolph/Allen/JaMychal Green.) My system likes John Wall and Bradley Beal, of course, but it sees two problems: Otto Porter’s departure to Brooklyn single-handedly takes their small forward position from fourth-best in the conference to second-worst (Oubre Jr. still can’t shoot from three) and is really disenchanted with the Morris/Gortat frontcourt. Porter was a major reason why the Wizards didn’t finish closer to their true expected wins of 45-37/46-36, and his departure could cost Washington as many as six wins if Wall/Beal don’t take yet another step upward. 42 or 43 wins may still get Washington the 5 seed, but I’m not in love with this lineup.
The Lakers are a lot simpler to figure out: the best player in the lineup (Brook Lopez) is the only positive BPM projection they’ve got. Lonzo Ball’s -0.8 projected BPM is #2. I think Lonzo will be quite a bit better than that, but I can’t quantify that right now. Plus, they’ll be starting Jordan Clarkson (has gotten worse every year), Brandon Ingram (the list of players who started their career with a -3.5 BPM or worse and went on to succeed is very small), and Julius Randle (probably about league average right now, but no real shooting range past 10 feet). If LaVar Ball’s prophecy comes true and the Lakers do make the playoffs, it’ll be primarily because of Lonzo and a massive Year 2 jump from Ingram.
In the Western Conference, there’s about ten teams that can make the playoffs. The cutoff is Portland; the starting lineup dropoff from Portland to Memphis was more than 4 points per 100 possessions. The top seven teams would all rank higher than the second-best team (Boston) in the East. That’s wild.
In the Eastern Conference, there appears to be 11 or 12 teams that can realistically make the playoffs. The cutoff is either Miami or the Knicks depending on how you look at it: Miami ranks about 1.6 points on average behind Orlando and Detroit on average, which can be made up with some end-of-game luck. The Knicks are closer to a 2.5 point deficit, which is very tough, but I’ll let it slide on the idea that Porzingis could continue to improve and carry the team.
The projected top five teams in the 2018 NBA Draft: Chicago, LA Lakers, Atlanta, Sacramento, Brooklyn.
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