East Tennessee high school football projections, week six

Last week’s record: 17-6, one short of our expected record of 18-5. On the year now, we’re 87-30 (.744), just one game under where I need to be to break the 75% threshold.

Thursday

Rockwood 32.1, Harriman 22.5 (Model 67.6%, S&P+ 71.1%)

Friday

Brentwood Academy 41.0, Knoxville Catholic 24.4 (Model 80.4%, S&P+ 83.2%)
Maryville 37.7, Fulton 23.4 (Model 76.1%, S&P+ 79.6%)
Dobyns-Bennett 29.3, Alcoa 27.8 (Model 52.8%, S&P+ 53.4%)
Farragut 39.3, West 9.9 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 95.5%)
Greenback 30.6, Grace Christian 21.7 (Model 66.2%, S&P+ 69.6%)
South-Doyle 35.1, Carter 24.6 (Model 69.1%, S&P+ 72.8%)
Morristown East 27.2, Gibbs 25.8 (Model 52.6%, S&P+ 53.2%)
Oak Ridge 30.4, Sevier County 23.0 (Model 63.5%, S&P+ 66.6%)
Morristown West 38.1, Cherokee 22.1 (Model 79.3%, S&P+ 82.3%)
Bearden 47.8, CAK 10.9 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 98.4%)
Central 32.8, Clinton 20.7 (Model 72.1%, S&P+ 75.9%)
Anderson County 37.9, Heritage 22.6 (Model 78.0%, S&P+ 81.1%)
Karns 29.7, Scott 29.1 (Model 51.1%, S&P+ 51.4%)
Austin-East 41.9, Halls 18.3 (Model 93.3%, S&P+ 91.4%)
Kingston 28.7, Stone Memorial 20.7 (Model 64.6%, S&P+ 67.9%)
Jefferson County 38.5, William Blount 13.0 (Model 96.7%, S&P+ 93.0%)
Trinity Academy 35.7, Gatlinburg-Pittman 22.5 (Model 74.2%, S&P+ 77.7%)
Powell 30.4, Lenoir City 22.1 (Model 65.3%, S&P+ 68.5%)
Loudon 32.8, Northview 23.3 (Model 67.4%, S&P+ 70.8%)
Cocke County 31.5, Pigeon Forge 29.7 (Model 53.3%, S&P+ 54.1%)

And this week’s games grouped by win probabilities:

• 50-59% (4 games, 1-3 last week, 18-13 on year): 2.12 expected wins-1.88 expected losses
• 60-69% (4 games, 3-1 last week, 9-10 on year): 2.73-1.27
• 70-79% (6 games, 2-2 last week, 17-4 on year): 4.48-1.52
• 80-89% (3 games, 5-0 last week, 22-2 on year): 2.47-0.53
• 90-99% (4 games, 6-0 last week, 22-1 on year): 3.78-0.22

 

East Tennessee high school football projections, week five

Finally, some correction in the projection world. After a bizarre first three weeks that had teams in the 50-59% range going 15-8 but those in 60-69% going 2-9, these started to regress to a theoretical mean: 50-59% teams went 2-2 and 60-69% teams went 4-0. In fact, our picks went 21-2 last week, bring us to 70-24 (74.5%) on the year. That probably won’t happen again, but it shows we’re heading down the right path. The goal by year’s end should be for this projection system to hit on about 75% of games. We’re right there!

Here’s this week’s picks:

Thursday

Sevier County 33.3, South-Doyle 19.0 (Model 76.1%, S&P+ 79.5%)

Friday

Webb 32.2, Grace Christian 17.6 (Model 76.6%, S&P+ 80.1%)
Alcoa 45.5, Pigeon Forge 6.7 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 98.8%)
Morristown West 24.6, Hardin Valley 21.9 (Model 54.9%, S&P+ 56.1%)
Science Hill 35.0, Bearden 19.4 (Model 78.5%, S&P+ 81.7%)
Farragut 40.4, Jefferson County 16.8 (Model 93.2%, S&P+ 91.3%)
Campbell County 37.2, Gibbs 16.3 (Model 88.2%, S&P+ 88.7%)
Knoxville Catholic 47.4, Soddy-Daisy 16.6 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 96.3%)
Oak Ridge 25.6, West 19.6 (Model 61.1%, S&P+ 63.9%)
Ooltewah 45.5, William Blount 13.2 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 97.0%)
Fulton 48.0, Karns 11.5 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 98.3%)
Central 35.6, Seymour 15.9 (Model 86.1%, S&P+ 87.2%)
McMinn County 29.2, Heritage 21.3 (Model 64.4%, S&P+ 67.5%)
Rhea County 35.1, Lenoir City 16.0 (Model 85.0%, S&P+ 86.7%)
Chattanooga Christian 29.4, CAK 25.9 (Model 56.5%, S&P+ 58.3%)
Gatlinburg-Pittman 35.4, Scott 24.8 (Model 69.4%, S&P+ 72.9%)
Carter 37.4, Halls 26.0 (Model 70.9%, S&P+ 74.5%)
Morristown East 28.5, Tennessee 25.0 (Model 56.5%, S&P+ 58.3%)
Anderson County 46.7, Howard 8.0 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 98.7%)
Kingston 33.6, Northview 25.2 (Model 65.4%, S&P+ 68.7%)
Mt. Juliet Christian 30.9, King’s Academy 29.1 (Model 53.4%, S&P+ 54.5%)
Powell 32.6, Clinton 26.5 (Model 61.3%, S&P+ 63.9%)
Loudon 29.2, Signal Mountain 15.0 (Model 76.0%, S&P+ 79.4%)

And S&P+ win probabilities:

• 50-59% (4 games, 2-2 last week, 17-10 on year): 2.21 expected wins-1.79 expected losses
• 60-69% (4 games, 4-0 last week, 6-9 on year): 2.64-1.36
• 70-79% (4 games, 5-0 last week, 15-2 on year): 3.06-0.94
• 80-89% (5 games, 8-0 last week, 17-2 on year): 4.24-0.76
• 90-99% (6 games, 2-0 last week, 16-1 on year): 5.80-0.20

The teams from 70-99% have an expected record on the year of about 45-8; they’re three games ahead of that now at 48-5. The 70-79% group is especially overperforming at 15-2: their expected record is about 13-4. I’d guess that you see at least one significant upset this week and probably a few more smaller ones. The expected record of favorites this week is 18-5.

East Tennessee high school football projections, week four

Deeply weird week last week – every single game in the 60-69% range on S&P+ went for the underdog. There was a 1.66% chance that every single one of those underdogs would win. That’s the beauty of this sport – it’s still unpredictable just when we think we’ve got it nailed down. We went 16-7 overall, which moves us to 49-22 on the season for our picks.

Here’s this week’s picks:

Thursday

Bearden 37.3, South-Doyle 17.0 (Model 87.1%, S&P+ 88.0%)

Friday

Maryville 34.2, Alcoa 21.4 (Model 73.5%, S&P+ 77.2%)
Farragut 40.5, Oak Ridge 21.1 (Model 85.5%, S&P+ 86.8%)
Knoxville Catholic 38.9, Cleveland 23.9 (Model 77.5%, S&P+ 80.7%)
Fulton 38.3, Austin-East 21.6 (Model 80.5%, S&P+ 83.3%)
McCallie 37.0, Webb 19.6 (Model 81.8%, S&P+ 84.3%)
Dobyns-Bennett 30.8, Sevier County 25.2 (Model 60.2%, S&P+ 62.7%)
Hardin Valley 24.8, Central 17.8 (Model 62.8%, S&P+ 65.6%)
Greenback 36.1, King’s Academy 23.8 (Model 72.5%, S&P+ 76.1%)
Campbell County 30.1, Morristown East 22.5 (Model 63.9%, S&P+ 67.0%)
West 35.4, Halls 12.5 (Model 91.8%, S&P+ 90.7%)
Anderson County 38.0, Clinton 27.2 (Model 69.7%, S&P+ 73.4%)
Jefferson County 38.2, Carter 18.2 (Model 86.5%, S&P+ 87.7%)
David Crockett 23.9, Gibbs 23.6 (Model 50.5%, S&P+ 50.6%)
Hampton 33.7, Gatlinburg-Pittman 32.9 (Model 51.5%, S&P+ 51.9%)
Lenoir City 28.3, CAK 27.5 (Model 51.5%, S&P+ 51.9%)
Kingston 28.4, Rockwood 18.4 (Model 68.4%, S&P+ 71.8%)
Cherokee 31.9, Seymour 29.8 (Model 53.9%, S&P+ 54.9%)
Heritage 35.7, William Blount 17.1 (Model 84.0%, S&P+ 85.8%)
Powell 34.9, Karns 22.2 (Model 73.3%, S&P+ 76.9%)
Loudon 28.9, Sequoyah 22.6 (Model 61.5%, S&P+ 64.2%)
Northview 37.8, Oliver Springs 22.3 (Model 78.5%, S&P+ 81.5%)
Pigeon Forge 36.2, Cumberland County 11.6 (Model 95.0%, S&P+ 92.3%)

Win probabilities per S&P+:

• 50-59% (4 games, 15-8 on season): 2.09 wins-1.91 losses
• 60-69% (4 games, 2-9 on season): 2.6-1.4
• 70-79% (5 games, 10-2 on season): 3.75-1.25
• 80-89% (8 games, 9-2 on season): 6.78-1.22
• 90-99% (2 games, 14-1 on season): 1.83-0.17

First off, holy crap, it’s terrible to be a favorite of about 4.5 to 9 points: you’re gonna lose 9 of every 11 games so far. For this to happen is a massive statistical anomaly, and we’ll either have to wait on the system to shake itself out with more data or for regression to the mean. Same with 50-59%: its 15-8 record is a solid 2.35 games above expectation. That’s not nearly as bad as 60-69%. Together, these constitute a 17-17 record if you’re a 0 to 9 point favorite. The expected record of these groups is about 20-14 – flagging a bit behind, but not as major as they look when broken down otherwise.

If you’re a major favorite, you’re sitting fairly pretty: double-digit or greater favorites are 33-5 on the season, or just one game above expectation. The 70-79% group should regress a tiny bit, but both 80-89% and 90-99% are generally fine.

East Tennessee high school football predictions, week three

Last week was tough because of all the close games – I believe I counted 22 of the 27 that were within the 50-79% range for the favorite, which is crazy. That almost never happens with what we do. So it wasn’t surprising for our model to go 17-10 (33-15 on the season) despite just eight expected losses. We’ve reworked and tweaked the methods used for the first two weeks in an attempt to get better numbers for week three. I’m excited to share it with you!

I love doing these, and I’m looking forward to seeing what else we can do this season. At some point, I’m hoping to debut individual team pages that show the most likely outcomes for each team for the rest of their season. I’ve already used up enough words, so here’s this week’s picks:

Thursday

Farragut 39.1, Morristown West 20.6 (Model 83.9%, S&P+ 85.8%)
Northview 41.6, Gatlinburg-Pittman 22.3 (Model 85.3%, S&P+ 86.7%)

Friday

Ensworth 29.9, Knoxville Webb 20.3 (Model 67.5%, S&P+ 71.0%)
Knoxville Catholic 33.5, Eagle’s Landing 29.1 (Model 58.1%, S&P+ 60.2%)
Maryville 42.8, McMinn Co. 11.9 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 96.3%)
Alcoa 44.5, Scott 11.7 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 97.1%)
Campbell Co. 27.9, Oak Ridge 27.4 (Model 50.9%, S&P+ 51.0%)
Gibbs 30.8, South-Doyle 23.8 (Model 62.7%, S&P+ 65.6%)
Fulton 49.6, Powell 10.3 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 98.9%)
Notre Dame 38.4, CAK 20.9 (Model 82.0%, S&P+ 84.5%)
Central 28.3, Sevier Co. 19.4 (Model 66.2%, S&P+ 69.6%)
Grace Christian 29.0, Boyd-Buchanan 14.4 (Model 76.7%, S&P+ 80.1%)
Cleveland 43.4, William Blount 12.4 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 96.3%)
Bearden 27.1, Jefferson Co. 23.9 (Model 55.8%, S&P+ 57.3%)
Seymour 32.4, Carter 28.0 (Model 58.1%, S&P+ 60.2%)
Hardin Valley 32.6, Pigeon Forge 13.4 (Model 85.2%, S&P+ 86.6%)
Austin-East 33.1, Kingston 20.3 (Model 73.5%, S&P+ 77.2%)
Morristown East 31.1, Cherokee 28.2 (Model 55.4%, S&P+ 56.7%)
West 32.3, Karns 12.4 (Model 86.3%, S&P+ 87.5%)
Anderson Co. 44.0, Hixson 15.3 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 95.1%)
Soddy Daisy 38.2, Lenoir City 15.4 (Model 91.7%, S&P+ 90.6%)
King’s Academy 41.1, Middle Tennessee Christian 17.3 (Model 93.5%, S&P+ 91.5%)
Loudon 35.3, Brainerd 13.8 (Model 89.3%, S&P+ 89.3%)

Hey, look at that! Right at the end, my model and Bill Connelly’s model predict the exact same likelihood of a win. That’s neat. Anyway, here’s how many close, middling, and blowout games we have this week, per S&P+:

• 50-59% (3 games): 1.65 wins-1.35 losses
• 60-69% (4 games): 2.56-1.44
• 70-79% (2 games): 1.48-0.52
• 80-89% (7 games): 6.01-0.99
• 90-99.9% (7 games): 6.66-0.34

In contrast to last week, this week looks like a lot of blowouts. I think we’ll see probably one pretty surprising upset – maybe Morristown West or Karns pull off a shocker? – and a few in the lower regions. Combining the models, we expect favorites to win 18.3 of the 23 games this week.

POSTSCRIPT: I’d like to shout out my high school, Warren County, located in McMinnville. For the first time since 2007, we’ve started out 2-0. This is important because Warren County has not finished a season with a winning record since 1990, the longest active streak in the state. This is harrowing to all who have come through the program, but there’s reasons to be excited about this start. In both games, the Pioneers have exceeded my pregame point spread by at least a touchdown (beat DeKalb Co. by 16, expected to win by 7.6; beat White Co. by 41, expected to win by 13.2).

This Friday, they play Cookeville at home in what could be a pivotal game en route to a winning season. I have Warren County favored in three more games – at Shelbyville, at Coffee Co., and at Fayetteville. Win those and 5-5 is on the table – tied for the best season of the last 27 years. All they have to do to get to 6-4 is beat Cookeville (16.2 point underdogs) or Siegel (12.3 point underdogs). Those are tall tasks, but Warren County has about a 37% chance of winning one or the other. That’s not bad at all, and it will likely go up with a good performance against Cookeville this weekend. Judging on their first two games, this may be the first team in a while to seriously exceed expectations. I’m hoping for the best. Good luck to my hometown!

East Tennessee high school football predictions, week two

We’re back for another week! The projection models combined for a solid 16-5 record last week, two games above the expected 14-7 record. We’ll see how well this holds up, but it’s a nice start. Below is the same intro from last week; the picks follow.

I’ve been working on a projection model for the last few months that, hopefully, will help make an unpredictable sport slightly more predictable. Using past performance, I’ve combined the two known projection models in Tennessee high school football: Sonny Moore’s Power Ratings and Cal Preps, which also operates as Max Preps. These are two very different models. The Cal Preps model covers all schools in the United States, so it adjusts ratings to the national average. By proxy, there are several more Tennessee schools considered below average than Sonny Moore’s ratings would suggest. Moore’s ratings are Tennessee exclusive.

With that in mind, we’ve blended a national and state model to attempt to produce a good product. I’m looking into creating my own model based on something resembling Bill Connelly’s S&P+, but it’s very hard to do so until coaches and teams begin to submit more fully-realized statistical data. Until then, we’re using this.

I’ve included my spreadsheet at the end so you can peruse some of the data I’ve got. Here’s a legend for reading everything you’ll see below:

• Excitement Score: A score that calculates a team’s program quality and success based on wins over the last four years. Formula goes like this: 2016 wins + 2015 W*0.7 + 2014 W*0.4 + 2013 W*0.2 = total.
• Power Score: The combined ratings of the two teams. Higher = better quality game.
• Combined: Excitement Score + Power Score.
• Projected Total: The amount of total points scored in the game per a projection combining last year’s data with adjustments based on returning production. We can’t get comprehensive production numbers for most of these teams, but I’ve tried to assemble projected points scored and allowed as best I can.
• Projected Outcome: Projected scoring margin. If it has a minus/negative sign in front of it, that means the home team is favored.
• Away, Home, and Favorite Win%: Based on a formula I whipped up and was able to test with solid success, the likelihood that the away or home team (and the favored team) will win the game.
• S&P+ Win%: Using Bill Connelly’s S&P+ data, the projected likelihood of the favored team winning the game.

Last week’s results called 16 of 21 games correctly. They missed on David Crockett over Seymour (47.5% chance of happening per S&P+), Christ (NC) over CAK (44%), Austin-East over Gibbs (34.3%), Lenoir City over William Blount (31.4%), and Clinton over Scott (24.8%). At least four of those had solid potential to happen, and the only real surprise was the Clinton win. Here’s how each level of win probability fared:

• 50-59% (7 games, exp. record 3.75-3.25): 5-2
• 60-69% (3 games, exp. record 1.97-1.03): 1-2
• 70-79% (5 games, exp. record 3.68-1.32): 4-1
• 80-89% (3 games, exp. record 2.56-0.44): 3-0
• 90-99% (3 games, exp. record 2.95-0.05): 3-0

Not bad at all. We need at least five more weeks of data to see if we’re heading in the right direction.

 

Now, onto the games:

Thursday

Jefferson County 28.2, Morristown East 22.2 (Model 61%, S&P+ 63.5%) (Game already played; Jefferson County won 26-6.)

Friday

Oakland 28.8, Maryville 27.2 (Model 52.8%, S&P+ 53.6%)
Baylor 27.8, Knox Catholic 26.8 (Model 51.8%, S&P+ 52.2%)
Fulton 32.9, Central 21.4 (Model 71%, S&P+ 74.6%)
Farragut 36.8, McMinn Co. 20.8 (Model 79.4%, S&P+ 82.3%)
Greeneville 31, Morristown West 25 (Model 61%, S&P+ 63.5%)
Greenback 31.4, CAK 29.3 (Model 53.8%, S&P+ 54.9%)
Oak Ridge 30.8, Dobyns-Bennett 29.4 (Model 52.5%, S&P+ 53.2%)
Bearden 32.2, Cleveland 23.1 (Model 66.7%, S&P+ 70.1%)
Hardin Valley 25.3, West 10.7 (Model 76.6%, S&P+ 80.1%)
Campbell County 30.7, David Crockett 16.5 (Model 76.1%, S&P+ 79.4%)
South-Doyle 38.2, Cherokee 22.8 (Model 78.2%, S&P+ 81.3%)
Heritage 25.8, Sevier County 24.4 (Model 52.6%, S&P+ 53.3%)
Grace Christian 31.6, King’s Academy 23.5 (Model 64.8%, S&P+ 68%)
Oneida 31.4, Gatlinburg-Pittman 24.2 (Model 63.1%, S&P+ 66.2%)
Sullivan North 34.1, Northview 29.1 (Model 59.2%, S&P+ 61.4%)
Anderson County 37.2, William Blount 24.8 (Model 72.7%, S&P+ 76.3%)
Carter 42.4, Cocke County 24.3 (Model 83.1%, S&P+ 85%)
Clinton 31.8, Seymour 27 (Model 58.9%, S&P+ 61%)
Grainger 28, Pigeon Forge 23.5 (Model 58.2%, S&P+ 60.3%)
Austin-East 47.9, Brainerd 8 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 99%)
Karns 37.5, Halls 22.2 (Model 78%, S&P+ 81.1%)
Kingston 34.8, Oliver Springs 15.8 (Model 84.8%, S&P+ 86.4%)
Lenoir City 26.3, Loudon 19.4 (Model 62.6%, S&P+ 65.5%)
Powell 33.5, Cumberland County 16.7 (Model 80.7%, S&P+ 83.4%)
Webb 44.1, Asheville (NC) 7.7 (Model 99.9%, S&P+ 98.2%)

Saturday

Corbin (KY) 26.6, Alcoa 26.1 (Model 50.9%, S&P+ 51.1%)

There are a TON of toss-up type games this week that could go either way. That’s awesome, because it means there should be very few blowouts. Here’s what the models expect this week:

• 50-59% (9 games!): 4.91 wins, 4.09 losses
• 60-69% (6 games): 3.79-2.21
• 70-79% (7 games): 5.32-1.68
• 80-89% (3 games): 2.49-0.51
• 90-99% (2 games): 1.99-0.01

 

East Tennessee high school football predictions, week one

I’ve been working on a projection model for the last few months that, hopefully, will help make an unpredictable sport slightly more predictable. Using past performance, I’ve combined the two known projection models in Tennessee high school football: Sonny Moore’s Power Ratings and Cal Preps, which also operates as Max Preps. These are two very different models. The Cal Preps model covers all schools in the United States, so it adjusts ratings to the national average. By proxy, there are several more Tennessee schools considered below average than Sonny Moore’s ratings would suggest. Moore’s ratings are Tennessee exclusive.

With that in mind, we’ve blended a national and state model to attempt to produce a good product. I’m looking into creating my own model based on something resembling Bill Connelly’s S&P+, but it’s very hard to do so until coaches and teams begin to submit more fully-realized statistical data. Until then, we’re using this.

I’ve included my spreadsheet at the end so you can peruse some of the data I’ve got. Here’s a legend for reading everything you’ll see below:

• Excitement Score: A score that calculates a team’s program quality and success based on wins over the last four years. Formula goes like this: 2016 wins + 2015 W*0.7 + 2014 W*0.4 + 2013 W*0.2 = total.
• Power Score: The combined ratings of the two teams. Higher = better quality game.
• Combined: Excitement Score + Power Score.
• Projected Total: The amount of total points scored in the game per a projection combining last year’s data with adjustments based on returning production. We can’t get comprehensive production numbers for most of these teams, but I’ve tried to assemble projected points scored and allowed as best I can.
• Projected Outcome: Projected scoring margin. If it has a minus/negative sign in front of it, that means the home team is favored.
• Away, Home, and Favorite Win%: Based on a formula I whipped up and was able to test with solid success, the likelihood that the away or home team (and the favored team) will win the game.
• S&P+ Win%: Using Bill Connelly’s S&P+ data, the projected likelihood of the favored team winning the game.

Now, onto the games:

Thursday

Alcoa 42.7, Grace Christian 6.6 (Combo Model 99.9%; S&P+ 98.5%)
Carter 38, Anderson Co. 28.9 (Combo Model 66.7%; S&P+ 70%)
Central 41.3, Tennessee 9.3 (Combo Model 99.9%; S&P+ 96.8%)

Friday

Maryville 37.9, Knoxville Catholic 26.1 (Combo Model 71.6%, S&P+ 75.2%)
Farragut 34.5, Bradley Central 25.0 (Combo Model 67.4%, S&P+ 70.9%)
Oak Ridge 26.1, Hardin Valley 22.2 (Combo Model 57.1%, S&P+ 58.9%)
Gibbs 31.3, Austin-East 24.4 (Combo Model 62.7%, S&P+ 65.7%)
Heritage 26.8, South-Doyle 26.5 (Combo Model 50.5%, S&P+ 50.8%)
Morristown West 34.4, Morristown East 18.5 (Combo Model 79.1%, S&P+ 82.2%)
Campbell County 40.9, Cherokee 18.9 (Combo Model 90.4%, S&P+ 89%)
Greenback 42.2, Loudon 8.4 (Combo Model 99.9%, S&P+ 99.4%)
Jefferson County 24.9, Sevier County 24.1 (Combo Model 51.4%, S&P+ 51.7%)
Seymour 25.0, David Crockett 24.0 (Combo Model 51.9%, S&P+ 52.5%)
Kingston 31.4, Harriman 25.7 (Combo Model 60.4%, S&P+ 63.0%)
William Blount 29.7, Lenoir City 21.3 (Combo Model 65.4%, S&P+ 68.6%)
Cloudland 33.0, Gatlinburg-Pittman 31.4 (Combo Model 52.8%, S&P+ 53.8%)
Powell 36.5, Halls 23.8 (Combo Model 73.2%, S&P+ 76.9%)
Pigeon Forge 32.3, West Greene 14.8 (Combo Model 82.1%, S&P+ 84.5%)
CAK 29.6, Christ (NC) 27.0 (Combo Model 54.7%, S&P+ 56.0%)
Scott 36.3, Clinton 24.5 (Combo Model 71.6%, S&P+ 75.2%)

Saturday

Bearden 21.9, West 21.2 (Combo Model 51.3%, S&P+ 51.7%)

Programming notes:

• The best of these games is clearly Catholic-Maryville for several reasons. For one, the two teams combined have more Division I prospects than potentially the other 20 games combined. For another, Catholic must replace tons of talent while Maryville has to replace possibly the greatest coach in East Tennessee high school history.
• Under-the-radar good game: Farragut at Bradley Central. The defending state champs travel to Cleveland for game one, and Bradley Central’s been very good for a while now.
• The third good game: Hardin Valley at Oak Ridge. Oak Ridge must replace Tee Higgins; Hardin Valley had the best season in school history last year (9-4 and a quarterfinals run), but they only return eight starters from that team and have to replace basically every option in the passing game. Aaron Dykes (2* RB, committed to Furman) had nearly 1,500 yards on the ground last year.

Lastly, win probabilities for percentage categories, using both our model and S&P. My model first:

• 50-59% (7 games): 3.7 wins-3.3 losses
• 60-69% (5 games): 3.23-1.77
• 70-79% (4 games): 2.96-1.04
• 80-89% (1 game): 0.82-0.18
• 90-99.9% (4 games): 3.9-0.1

And S&P+:

• 50-59% (7 games): 3.75-3.25
• 60-69% (3 games): 1.97-1.03
• 70-79% (5 games): 3.68-1.32
• 80-89% (3 games): 2.56-0.44
• 90-99.9% (3 games): 2.95-0.05

On average, we can expect around six upsets this weekend, all most likely between 50-79%. If it comes to what is inferred by the original model, look for three 50-59% upsets, two from 60-69%, and one from 70-79%. We’ll see how this shakes out, with an update next week.