Deeply weird week last week – every single game in the 60-69% range on S&P+ went for the underdog. There was a 1.66% chance that every single one of those underdogs would win. That’s the beauty of this sport – it’s still unpredictable just when we think we’ve got it nailed down. We went 16-7 overall, which moves us to 49-22 on the season for our picks.
50-59% (4 games, 15-8 on season): 2.09 wins-1.91 losses
60-69% (4 games, 2-9 on season): 2.6-1.4
70-79% (5 games, 10-2 on season): 3.75-1.25
80-89% (8 games, 9-2 on season): 6.78-1.22
90-99% (2 games, 14-1 on season): 1.83-0.17
First off, holy crap, it’s terrible to be a favorite of about 4.5 to 9 points: you’re gonna lose 9 of every 11 games so far. For this to happen is a massive statistical anomaly, and we’ll either have to wait on the system to shake itself out with more data or for regression to the mean. Same with 50-59%: its 15-8 record is a solid 2.35 games above expectation. That’s not nearly as bad as 60-69%. Together, these constitute a 17-17 record if you’re a 0 to 9 point favorite. The expected record of these groups is about 20-14 – flagging a bit behind, but not as major as they look when broken down otherwise.
If you’re a major favorite, you’re sitting fairly pretty: double-digit or greater favorites are 33-5 on the season, or just one game above expectation. The 70-79% group should regress a tiny bit, but both 80-89% and 90-99% are generally fine.
Last week was tough because of all the close games – I believe I counted 22 of the 27 that were within the 50-79% range for the favorite, which is crazy. That almost never happens with what we do. So it wasn’t surprising for our model to go 17-10 (33-15 on the season) despite just eight expected losses. We’ve reworked and tweaked the methods used for the first two weeks in an attempt to get better numbers for week three. I’m excited to share it with you!
I love doing these, and I’m looking forward to seeing what else we can do this season. At some point, I’m hoping to debut individual team pages that show the most likely outcomes for each team for the rest of their season. I’ve already used up enough words, so here’s this week’s picks:
Hey, look at that! Right at the end, my model and Bill Connelly’s model predict the exact same likelihood of a win. That’s neat. Anyway, here’s how many close, middling, and blowout games we have this week, per S&P+:
50-59% (3 games): 1.65 wins-1.35 losses
60-69% (4 games): 2.56-1.44
70-79% (2 games): 1.48-0.52
80-89% (7 games): 6.01-0.99
90-99.9% (7 games): 6.66-0.34
In contrast to last week, this week looks like a lot of blowouts. I think we’ll see probably one pretty surprising upset – maybe Morristown West or Karns pull off a shocker? – and a few in the lower regions. Combining the models, we expect favorites to win 18.3 of the 23 games this week.
POSTSCRIPT: I’d like to shout out my high school, Warren County, located in McMinnville. For the first time since 2007, we’ve started out 2-0. This is important because Warren County has not finished a season with a winning record since 1990, the longest active streak in the state. This is harrowing to all who have come through the program, but there’s reasons to be excited about this start. In both games, the Pioneers have exceeded my pregame point spread by at least a touchdown (beat DeKalb Co. by 16, expected to win by 7.6; beat White Co. by 41, expected to win by 13.2).
This Friday, they play Cookeville at home in what could be a pivotal game en route to a winning season. I have Warren County favored in three more games – at Shelbyville, at Coffee Co., and at Fayetteville. Win those and 5-5 is on the table – tied for the best season of the last 27 years. All they have to do to get to 6-4 is beat Cookeville (16.2 point underdogs) or Siegel (12.3 point underdogs). Those are tall tasks, but Warren County has about a 37% chance of winning one or the other. That’s not bad at all, and it will likely go up with a good performance against Cookeville this weekend. Judging on their first two games, this may be the first team in a while to seriously exceed expectations. I’m hoping for the best. Good luck to my hometown!
We’re back for another week! The projection models combined for a solid 16-5 record last week, two games above the expected 14-7 record. We’ll see how well this holds up, but it’s a nice start. Below is the same intro from last week; the picks follow.
I’ve been working on a projection model for the last few months that, hopefully, will help make an unpredictable sport slightly more predictable. Using past performance, I’ve combined the two known projection models in Tennessee high school football: Sonny Moore’s Power Ratings and Cal Preps, which also operates as Max Preps. These are two very different models. The Cal Preps model covers all schools in the United States, so it adjusts ratings to the national average. By proxy, there are several more Tennessee schools considered below average than Sonny Moore’s ratings would suggest. Moore’s ratings are Tennessee exclusive.
With that in mind, we’ve blended a national and state model to attempt to produce a good product. I’m looking into creating my own model based on something resembling Bill Connelly’s S&P+, but it’s very hard to do so until coaches and teams begin to submit more fully-realized statistical data. Until then, we’re using this.
I’ve included my spreadsheet at the end so you can peruse some of the data I’ve got. Here’s a legend for reading everything you’ll see below:
Excitement Score: A score that calculates a team’s program quality and success based on wins over the last four years. Formula goes like this: 2016 wins + 2015 W*0.7 + 2014 W*0.4 + 2013 W*0.2 = total.
Power Score: The combined ratings of the two teams. Higher = better quality game.
Combined: Excitement Score + Power Score.
Projected Total: The amount of total points scored in the game per a projection combining last year’s data with adjustments based on returning production. We can’t get comprehensive production numbers for most of these teams, but I’ve tried to assemble projected points scored and allowed as best I can.
Projected Outcome: Projected scoring margin. If it has a minus/negative sign in front of it, that means the home team is favored.
Away, Home, and Favorite Win%: Based on a formula I whipped up and was able to test with solid success, the likelihood that the away or home team (and the favored team) will win the game.
S&P+ Win%: Using Bill Connelly’s S&P+ data, the projected likelihood of the favored team winning the game.
Last week’s results called 16 of 21 games correctly. They missed on David Crockett over Seymour (47.5% chance of happening per S&P+), Christ (NC) over CAK (44%), Austin-East over Gibbs (34.3%), Lenoir City over William Blount (31.4%), and Clinton over Scott (24.8%). At least four of those had solid potential to happen, and the only real surprise was the Clinton win. Here’s how each level of win probability fared:
50-59% (7 games, exp. record 3.75-3.25): 5-2
60-69% (3 games, exp. record 1.97-1.03): 1-2
70-79% (5 games, exp. record 3.68-1.32): 4-1
80-89% (3 games, exp. record 2.56-0.44): 3-0
90-99% (3 games, exp. record 2.95-0.05): 3-0
Not bad at all. We need at least five more weeks of data to see if we’re heading in the right direction.
Now, onto the games:
Thursday
Jefferson County 28.2, Morristown East 22.2 (Model 61%, S&P+ 63.5%) (Game already played; Jefferson County won 26-6.)
There are a TON of toss-up type games this week that could go either way. That’s awesome, because it means there should be very few blowouts. Here’s what the models expect this week:
I’ve been working on a projection model for the last few months that, hopefully, will help make an unpredictable sport slightly more predictable. Using past performance, I’ve combined the two known projection models in Tennessee high school football: Sonny Moore’s Power Ratings and Cal Preps, which also operates as Max Preps. These are two very different models. The Cal Preps model covers all schools in the United States, so it adjusts ratings to the national average. By proxy, there are several more Tennessee schools considered below average than Sonny Moore’s ratings would suggest. Moore’s ratings are Tennessee exclusive.
With that in mind, we’ve blended a national and state model to attempt to produce a good product. I’m looking into creating my own model based on something resembling Bill Connelly’s S&P+, but it’s very hard to do so until coaches and teams begin to submit more fully-realized statistical data. Until then, we’re using this.
I’ve included my spreadsheet at the end so you can peruse some of the data I’ve got. Here’s a legend for reading everything you’ll see below:
Excitement Score: A score that calculates a team’s program quality and success based on wins over the last four years. Formula goes like this: 2016 wins + 2015 W*0.7 + 2014 W*0.4 + 2013 W*0.2 = total.
Power Score: The combined ratings of the two teams. Higher = better quality game.
Combined: Excitement Score + Power Score.
Projected Total: The amount of total points scored in the game per a projection combining last year’s data with adjustments based on returning production. We can’t get comprehensive production numbers for most of these teams, but I’ve tried to assemble projected points scored and allowed as best I can.
Projected Outcome: Projected scoring margin. If it has a minus/negative sign in front of it, that means the home team is favored.
Away, Home, and Favorite Win%: Based on a formula I whipped up and was able to test with solid success, the likelihood that the away or home team (and the favored team) will win the game.
S&P+ Win%: Using Bill Connelly’s S&P+ data, the projected likelihood of the favored team winning the game.
Now, onto the games:
Thursday
Alcoa 42.7, Grace Christian 6.6 (Combo Model 99.9%; S&P+ 98.5%)
Carter 38, Anderson Co. 28.9 (Combo Model 66.7%; S&P+ 70%)
Central 41.3, Tennessee 9.3 (Combo Model 99.9%; S&P+ 96.8%)
Friday
Maryville 37.9, Knoxville Catholic 26.1 (Combo Model 71.6%, S&P+ 75.2%)
Farragut 34.5, Bradley Central 25.0 (Combo Model 67.4%, S&P+ 70.9%)
Oak Ridge 26.1, Hardin Valley 22.2 (Combo Model 57.1%, S&P+ 58.9%)
Gibbs 31.3, Austin-East 24.4 (Combo Model 62.7%, S&P+ 65.7%)
Heritage 26.8, South-Doyle 26.5 (Combo Model 50.5%, S&P+ 50.8%)
Morristown West 34.4, Morristown East 18.5 (Combo Model 79.1%, S&P+ 82.2%)
Campbell County 40.9, Cherokee 18.9 (Combo Model 90.4%, S&P+ 89%)
Greenback 42.2, Loudon 8.4 (Combo Model 99.9%, S&P+ 99.4%)
Jefferson County 24.9, Sevier County 24.1 (Combo Model 51.4%, S&P+ 51.7%)
Seymour 25.0, David Crockett 24.0 (Combo Model 51.9%, S&P+ 52.5%)
Kingston 31.4, Harriman 25.7 (Combo Model 60.4%, S&P+ 63.0%)
William Blount 29.7, Lenoir City 21.3 (Combo Model 65.4%, S&P+ 68.6%)
Cloudland 33.0, Gatlinburg-Pittman 31.4 (Combo Model 52.8%, S&P+ 53.8%)
Powell 36.5, Halls 23.8 (Combo Model 73.2%, S&P+ 76.9%)
Pigeon Forge 32.3, West Greene 14.8 (Combo Model 82.1%, S&P+ 84.5%)
CAK 29.6, Christ (NC) 27.0 (Combo Model 54.7%, S&P+ 56.0%)
Scott 36.3, Clinton 24.5 (Combo Model 71.6%, S&P+ 75.2%)
Saturday
Bearden 21.9, West 21.2 (Combo Model 51.3%, S&P+ 51.7%)
Programming notes:
The best of these games is clearly Catholic-Maryville for several reasons. For one, the two teams combined have more Division I prospects than potentially the other 20 games combined. For another, Catholic must replace tons of talent while Maryville has to replace possibly the greatest coach in East Tennessee high school history.
Under-the-radar good game: Farragut at Bradley Central. The defending state champs travel to Cleveland for game one, and Bradley Central’s been very good for a while now.
The third good game: Hardin Valley at Oak Ridge. Oak Ridge must replace Tee Higgins; Hardin Valley had the best season in school history last year (9-4 and a quarterfinals run), but they only return eight starters from that team and have to replace basically every option in the passing game. Aaron Dykes (2* RB, committed to Furman) had nearly 1,500 yards on the ground last year.
Lastly, win probabilities for percentage categories, using both our model and S&P. My model first:
50-59% (7 games): 3.7 wins-3.3 losses
60-69% (5 games): 3.23-1.77
70-79% (4 games): 2.96-1.04
80-89% (1 game): 0.82-0.18
90-99.9% (4 games): 3.9-0.1
And S&P+:
50-59% (7 games): 3.75-3.25
60-69% (3 games): 1.97-1.03
70-79% (5 games): 3.68-1.32
80-89% (3 games): 2.56-0.44
90-99.9% (3 games): 2.95-0.05
On average, we can expect around six upsets this weekend, all most likely between 50-79%. If it comes to what is inferred by the original model, look for three 50-59% upsets, two from 60-69%, and one from 70-79%. We’ll see how this shakes out, with an update next week.
This is yet another dumb idea I had late on a weekday night, based on a recent podcast from the guys at the Solid Verbal. They offhandedly mentioned their still-to-come hipster college football teams for 2017. I love dumb stuff like this, because it helps me waste time and think about my favorite four months of the year. However, this is the first time I’ve gotten into it to this extent. Below, I’ve created Rules to even be considered a Hipster Team in the first place and Preferences to narrow down our true champion for 2017. Consider this the preamble to a much larger post coming down the pipe ranking the watchability of teams this season.
There are several rules and regulations in this post to try and create a list of teams that casual college football fans probably don’t know much about. Some entries will obviously surprise you (Louisville? Houston?) but a large amount of these teams are effortlessly lovable. Kind of like my new favorite band of the year. Below, your eleven 2017 Hipster Teams.
Rules:
Must not be ranked in the preseason AP Top 10. We’re currently assuming this to be ten of the following 12 teams: Alabama, Florida State, Clemson, Ohio State, USC, Penn State, Auburn, Washington, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Michigan, and LSU.
Must have won less than 10 games in the regular season in 2016. I hate to do this, but once a team hits double digits in wins, the secret’s sort of out. True hipsters hate when the secret’s out and they have to deal with these dumb normals being fans. We’re allowing a 9-3 record with a bowl win under special circumstances – you didn’t finish in the AP Top 10 (if you’re a G5 team, the Top 25), which means you weren’t that popular. Sorry, USF and San Diego State – the Bulls will crush in the 2017 ESPN GamePlan Power Rankings of the most relentlessly watchable teams.
Must have appeared in a bowl game in 2016. Sorry, Oregon and Texas Tech. It’s not your fault. Well, it is, but you get the point. Even hipsters like winners.
Must be projected to be a top-20 scoring offense in the nation (38 PPG or higher). I’m using Phil Steele’s guide for this, which is based predominantly on returning production and past performance. It’s a good resource.
Preferences:
Group of Five status preferred, but not a requirement. We’ll accept Power Five conference teams that meet our requirements.
Quirky or otherwise attractive coaches preferred. I get it if you like Paul Chryst because he’s a good coach (he is). No one likes him because he has an unusual personality.
Electric or exciting QBs preferred. Must be projected for 1,000 rushing yards or more.
Have a ridiculously fast or shifty punt returner/utility guy? Perfect! We love guys that see the field eight times per game. Required: 4 punt returns of 30+ yards OR 4 kick returns of 40+ yards.
Top-25 per-play offense in 2016.
If G5, game vs. Power Five on national TV. For P5s, game vs. projected Top 10 team.
Head coach is at his first job. Half-point for second job if at Group of Five school.
Prolific QB through the air. Must be projected for 3,600 passing yards or more.
Team averaged 3+ sacks per game in 2016. Sacks are dope.
Team forced 27+ turnovers in 2016.
Projected as Top 15 team in total offense.
Projected as Top 15 team in passing offense.
If you meet the Rules, you get three points each. Preferences earn you one point each, and Preference #6 earns you one point for each game or occurrence.
11. Kansas State (15.5 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Interesting head coach, 1,000+ rushing yard QB.
Kansas State met all four conditions we required just to make this list of rankings: not a top 10 team, went 9-3 or worse in the 2016 regular season, appeared in a bowl game (and won!), and is projected to be a top-20 offense by scoring. Good enough! Seriously, Kansas State football is never anything less than interesting, has a literal wizard as a head coach, and has beaten Top 25 opponents often enough (though not since 2014) for us to always be on alert. It’s worth noting that despite losing their last nine against Top 25 competition, four came by one possession. Against non-Top 25 teams in games decided by one possession from 2012 on? 10-3 (2-4 vs. Top 25). Kansas State has a weird ability to make nearly any game entertaining, and having a quarterback who led the team in rushing last year in Jesse Ertz (1,184 non-sack yards on 183 carries) helps. Worth noting: Bill Snyder is 30-11 ATS as an underdog of any kind since 2009 and is 42-12 at home in the same span. Guess who comes to Manhattan in 2017? Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. Not bad.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Texas (October 7), TCU (October 14), Oklahoma (October 21), at Oklahoma State (November 18)
T-9. Tulsa (16.75 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Potentially fun QB, multiple Top 25 opponent opportunities, rising star coach
You last saw Tulsa obliterating a Central Michigan team that kind of beat Oklahoma State. They were secretly one of the most fun teams in college football last year: dumped 42.5 points per game on opponents, posted 40+ points in 10 of 13 games, played Tom Herman and Houston down to literally the final yard of the game, and crescendoed with a wild comeback against Cincinnati and a 55-10 bowl win. They lose a lot – no more Dane Evans (3,348 yards), James Flanders (1,629 rushing yards), or two 1,000 yard receivers. But: the presumed starting QB is named Chad President, their coach does some weird yoga stuff with his wife, D’Angelo Brewer (1,435 rushing yards) returns, and including his time as the lone offensive coordinator at Baylor (co-OC 2008-2011), there’s yet to have been even a good Philip Montgomery offense. They’ve all been great or elite.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Oklahoma State (August 31), at USF (November 16)
T-9. Louisiana Tech (16.75 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Top 25 per-play offense, 3+ sacks per game, top 15 passing offense
Louisiana Tech closed a quietly extremely fun season where nearly every game either had a ridiculous scoreline or a crazy finish with a game that had both – the Armed Forces Bowl against Navy. The Bulldogs won 48-45 in what might’ve been the most purely fun game of the postseason not involving Penn State or USC. Anyway, it’s with regret that I note they lost the three top producers from an insane offense: QB Ryan Higgins (4,617 yards) and receivers Trent Taylor (1,803 yards) and Carlos Henderson (1,535 yards). The good news: Tech could have their best running QB in some time if J’Mar Smith starts and overcame similar issues last year (9 returning starters in 2016). Supposedly, their offense will decline slightly while their defense will be better. So, yet again, a terribly frustrating team no one wants to play and everyone gets to enjoy. Fine by me! The Week 2-4 stretch of Mississippi State/WKU/South Carolina will be a delight, and the chances they pick off one of the two SEC teams seems fairly high. Get in before those late to the party do, and try to stay on board when they inevitably drop a game to North Texas or Rice.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: Mississippi State (September 9)
8. TCU (17.25 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Interesting coach, 3+ sacks per game, top 15 total yardage
2016 TCU oscillated wildly between irrelevance and straight-up wild. Back-to-back-to-back weeks produced this: a listless overtime loss to a garbage Texas Tech team, a 62-22 road blowout of 6-1 Baylor, and a 31-6 home loss to Oklahoma State. Also, they gave up 41 to South Dakota State, lost in overtime to Arkansas in a super entertaining game, lost 52-46 to Oklahoma in a throwback of 2012 Bonkers Big 12, beat Kansas by a point, and beat Texas 31-9 out of nowhere in between 31-6 and 30-6 losses. It’s a very strong version of Young Team Things. TCU is now Older and won’t be as prone to this, but their SEO is down a bit thanks to last year’s 6-7 run that concluded with a loss to the worst Georgia team since 2009. However, let me submit the following: Kenny Hill quietly ran for 813 non-sack yards last year and threw for 3,208 yards. TCU brings back their top eight receivers. Their defense dropped 43 sacks on opponents last year and returns 22.5 of those this season. Gary Patterson is wildly entertaining and a great coach. Plus, if you’re looking for a team that is guaranteed to play in an instant classic, TCU’s pulled it off in eight of the last nine seasons. On the negative side, I doubt TCU fans are enthralled with left politics.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Oklahoma State (September 23), vs. Texas (November 4), at Oklahoma (November 11)
T-6. Pittsburgh (17.5 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Electric return man, top 25 yards per play, rising star coach, 3+ sacks per game
I hate to do this, but when you think of Pittsburgh, you don’t think excitement. You either think about (no longer!) boring, title-winning football or boring, title-winning hockey. (Sorry, Pirates.) Or you think of food. Anyway, you don’t really think about an exciting, unknown college football team. That changed in the span of a few seconds last fall.
Never gets old. We really thought Clemson was done in the title race! (For about three hours.) Anyway, that was just one of a bunch of bizarro classics Pitt played in, in order: 42-39 W against Penn State, 45-38 L to Oklahoma State, 37-36 L to North Carolina, 37-34 W against Georgia Tech, 39-36 L to Virginia Tech, and the highest-scoring FBS game in regulation of all time, a 76-61 W over Syracuse. With a defensive head coach and not much name power, this was one of the last teams you’d expect to be aggressively watchable, and yet they were. Now, they have to figure out how to replace future NFL bench guy Nathan Peterman and excellent OC Matt Canada, which means fans are preemptively abstaining from jumping on the bandwagon. Screw ’em. They’ve still got maybe the most fun kick returner in college football who can do anything at any time, a coach that could be taking a major job in the near future in Pat Narduzzi, and a defense that dropped 43 sacks last year. Will they be as good as last year’s edition? Probably not. But what if things come together quickly and Narduzzi’s as good as some think? Then you’ll want to say you were there when they were playing shows to 17 people.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Penn State (September 9), vs. Oklahoma State (September 16), vs. Miami (FL) (November 24)
T-6. Houston (17.5 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Coach at first job, 3+ sacks per game, top 15 pass offense
Houston was the most interesting team in college football for about six weeks last year. They dumped Oklahoma on the side of the road to start the year, came back in waves against Cincinnati, and avoided any sort of letdown…until October 8, when they went to Navy and the Midshipmen blasted them with an unstoppable option game. Then the wheels fell off in proportion with Tom Herman’s coaching rumors shooting up: a goal-line stand to beat Tulsa the next week. A 38-16 loss to SMU. A near-collapse at home against UCF. They came out of nowhere to obliterate Louisville, but then lost at Memphis the next week. After that, Herman was gone. Now, for me, they might be more interesting to start the year: Major Applewhite’s in his first year as a head coach. They had a great defense last year that sacked QBs relentlessly and bring back seven starters from it, including future first round pick Ed Oliver. The offense brings back eight, with the new QB being a former five-star recruit who was fine in his one year at Texas A&M. They’ll go from a rushing-dominant offense to one that can light up opponents through the air – subjectively way more fun. No one will be paying attention to them to start.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Arizona (September 9), vs. Texas Tech (September 23), at USF (November 4)
5. Colorado St. (17.75 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Top 25 yards per play, coach at first job, QB with 3,600+ pass yards, top 15 total offense
As someone who has written postgame columns about Tennessee football for two seasons, I was taken aback by how ridiculously efficient their clogged-toilet offense became out of nowhere in November. A team that languished around the 40s and 50s for efficiency was suddenly the #1 per-play offense in the nation for a month. More shocking to me was #2: the Colorado State Rams. There was basically no reason for national commentators to care or know about Colorado State football last year thanks to a slow start (3-4, including a 44-7 loss to rival Colorado) and a bland and boring team. Nothing stood out about them until a six-game offensive run to end the year like this: 42, 37, 46, 49, 63, and 50 points. Suddenly, the Rams lit up every team they played. Why was this? A thrilling quarterback in Nick Stevens who was hurt earlier in the season, a very underrated offensive coach in Mike Bobo, and a team much better than their record showed. No one seems to know this, but the Rams will likely be favored in 10 of their 12 games this year and possibly 11. Might be time to see them while the shows are still cheap.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: Oregon State (August 26), Colorado (September 1), at Alabama (September 16), vs. Boise State (November 11)
4. Louisville (18 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Interesting coach, fun QB, top 25 yards per play, multiple Top 10 opponent opportunities
It really can’t be said enough that Louisville rehired a coach who left them without warning to run the Atlanta Falcons for 13 games and had a mistress on a motorcycle. Bobby Petrino is as fascinating as they come. He’s also really good at coaching! I know what you’re thinking: wasn’t Louisville in the Top 10 for most of last season? Weren’t they in the national conversation for three months? Didn’t their incredibly fun quarterback win the Heisman Trophy?!?!? Yes, all of this is true. What’s also true is they lost their final three games to go 9-4. They qualify for this, and just barely. Think of it like your favorite band getting onto a major label and having a phenomenal album followed by a stinker that causes people to stop paying attention. Or something. Anyway, people aren’t paying as much attention to what will be a very fun team that will be on TV often. Plus, Louisville’s still an underrated city and they were very close to ranking second or first on this list.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: Clemson (September 16), at Florida State (October 21)
3. Memphis (18.25 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Rising star coach, QB with 3,600+ pass yards, top 15 total offense, top 15 pass offense
Memphis was quietly fun last year and then became very fun right at the end: a lot gelled together in November and bowl season, and they closed the final five games with 51, 42, 34, 48, and 31 points. Not bad! Even better: they beat Houston on Black Friday, smashed Cincinnati, and pushed 11-win South Florida to the brink. This was a really fun team that had the misfortune of losing some SEO after Justin Fuente left for Virginia Tech, but Mike Norvell appears to be pretty good in his own right. Memphis secretly had the top Group of Five recruiting class this past offseason, and their days as a confusingly bad program seem to be over. They return Riley Ferguson, a Tennessee transfer who dropped 3,698 yards and 30 TDs last year. The offense is projected to be top 15 in total yardage and pass offense. They’ll have a few opportunities to prove themselves on a national stage, including what could be an Absolutely Giant Game for the Tigers on September 16th at home against UCLA (the biggest-name non-Tennessee opponent to visit Memphis since potentially 1996 Miami). The schedule sets itself up for a 5-1 or 6-0 start hinging on the UCLA game. Both of their high-end AAC games are played on weeknights for higher visibility. It’s a real from-the-ground-up opportunity.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: UCLA (September 16), Houston (October 19), Tulsa (November 3)
2. Oklahoma St. (18.5 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Interesting coach, top 25 yards per play, QB with 3,600+ pass yards, top 15 total offense, top 15 pass offense
Everyone’s favorite Hipster Team was so, so close to being #1. Subjectively, this might be the team I watch the most this year: there’s no better mix of intoxicating offense, beloved coach, rapid-fire attacks, and schedule both on this list and maybe in all of college football. They’ll play a Top 10 team at home on November 4th in Oklahoma. That concludes a four-week run of epic offensive competition: Baylor, Texas, West Virginia, and the Sooners. Those four games may combine for 300+ points. They play three of the teams on this list in the first four weeks: Tulsa, Pittsburgh, and TCU. They play a fourth in November (Kansas State). Mason Rudolph may be a Top 5 pick in the next NFL Draft. They have one of the best receivers in football, known only as Junkyard Jim. I would eliminate precisely one testicle if it meant Mike Gundy would coach my beloved Tennessee. And they came up just shy. They’re #1 on my subjective list, but coming up second to our first-place team is no dishonor. These Cowboys will be a favorite of many.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: Every game but South Alabama, Iowa State, and Kansas.
1. Western Kentucky (18.75 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Interesting coach, electric return man, top 25 yards per play, rising star coach, QB with 3,600+ pass yards, top 15 pass offense
Yes, the following’s all true:
Western Kentucky won 23 games in the last two seasons.
Their coach just left for Purdue.
Most people know about Western Kentucky football by now, right?
WRONG. If you asked casual football fans about Western Kentucky, their response would be one of the following: “the team that gave up the weird Hail Mary?”, “yeah, they play Alabama sometimes”, or “of course! 34 bowl confidence points last year!” I guarantee that almost none of them know how great Western Kentucky has been. That’s what makes WKU insanely attractive at all times: it feels like you’re being let in on a secret you’re not supposed to know about. The Toppers are the best program to come through Conference USA in a very long time. They get to bring back Mike White at QB, who tossed a pretty 4,363 yards/37 TD/7 INT combo last year. Here’s an insane and true stat: Western Kentucky didn’t score less than 44 points in any of their final ten games. Oh, and they have a legitimate contender for the most electric kickoff returner in college football. Lastly – and this one ashamedly put them even higher for me, personally – Mike Sanford, Jr. is easily the hottest coach on this list. Easily. WKU will be favored in at least 11 of their 12 games – all that stands between them and Normie Love are road wins at Illinois and Vanderbilt.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Illinois (September 9), at Vanderbilt (November 4)
I send this out in a weekly email to a few friends from Peter Tiernan’s old site, bracketscience.com. It was the best site I’d ever used for March Madness purposes. Pete is the creator of the Seed Guide, which he lovingly updated and worked on with frequency. Bracket Science collected all of Pete’s work. Pete’s gotten out of the game for now, but I and the fans of Bracket Science work together each year to continue his studies.
One of my favorite Tiernan works was his Champ Check, a list of qualities that every NCAA Basketball champion since 2000 (other than 2014 Connecticut) held. They are below:
A one, two or three seed
Member of a Power conference: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 or SEC
Either went to the previous year’s dance or have an All-American
Led by a coach with more than five tourney trips and at least one Elite Eight run
Averaging more than 73 points per game
Allowing fewer than 73 points per game
An average scoring margin of at least seven points per game
A schedule among the 75 strongest in the country
Based on those stats, here are your championship contenders based on this week’s AP Poll Top 20: Kansas, Villanova, Arizona, Louisville, North Carolina, Oregon, Notre Dame.
Notable non-qualifiers: Gonzaga (100+ SOS), Baylor (72.5 PPG; how is this still possible in 2017?), W. Virginia (89 SOS), Kentucky (allowing 73.9 PPG), Virginia (68.9 PPG scored), Wisconsin (92 SOS), UCLA (allowing 76+ PPG), Cincinnati (87 SOS), Florida State (no Elite Eights for Leonard Hamilton), Butler (no Elite Eights for Chris Holtmann), Maryland (no Elite Eights for Mark Turgeon), Saint Mary’s, South Carolina.
If you think this is an unusually small list of qualifiers, you’re not alone. Of course, give it time and some non-qualifiers close to qualifying may jump into the group. Duke will be a notable one when they jump back into the top 20.
Some more stats that we’ve used before – KenPom efficiency (every champ minus 2014 had above a 112.2 OE and below a 95.4 DE) and rankings (18th or higher in OE, 49th or higher in DE). Here’s your contenders based on these stats.
RANKINGS: Gonzaga (4th/4th), Virginia (17th/3rd), Villanova (6th/15th), WVU (3rd/19th), Kentucky (9th/16th), Kansas (5th/36th), UNC (7th/35th), Purdue (12th/22nd), St. Mary’s (10th/44th), Duke (14th/32nd).
Ranked in all three: Villanova
Ranked in two: Kansas, Arizona, Louisville, North Carolina, Oregon, Gonzaga, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Purdue
One: Notre Dame, Florida, Baylor, Wisconsin, FSU, SMU, Wichita State, Cincinnati, Iowa State, St. Mary’s, Duke
I look forward to seeing how this develops over the rest of the season. I’ll also post more of my work in CBB tournament analytics as the season ends, including a typical amount of first-round upsets, how to single out a pretender at a high seed, and more.
gyrateplus: the website 
