Eventually, we will hit on an upset. We’re 0 for 6 this year, though we did correctly nail that there would be an upset from the 60-69% range and at least one from 50-59%. It’s still one short of expectation. That typically regresses throughout a season. Either way, we’ll get our upsets in eventually.
- 50-59% (5-1 on the season, expected record of 0.53-0.47): #25 UCLA (at Memphis) (53.3%)
- 60-69% (3-1 on the season, expected record of 2.62-1.38): #18 Kansas State (at Vanderbilt) (62.7%), #24 Florida (vs. #23 Tennessee) (63.5%), #3 Clemson (at #14 Louisville) (67.5%), #9 Oklahoma State (at Pittsburgh) (68.0%)
- 70-79% (3-1 on the season, expected record of 3.00-1.00): #19 Stanford (at San Diego State) (71.2%), #12 LSU (at Mississippi State) (72.3%), #10 Wisconsin (at BYU) (78.1%), #4 USC (vs. Texas) (78.6%)
- 80-89% (4-0 on the season, expected record of 2.54-0.46): #22 USF (vs. Illinois) (80.0%), #21 Washington State (vs. Oregon State) (85.8%), #20 TCU (vs. SMU) (88.3%)
- 90-99% (21-0 on the season, expected record of 8.70-0.30): every other game
Considering I’m 0 for 6 on the season so far, I might as well shoot for 0-7 or worse. Memphis defeating UCLA is a fairly realistic proposition (two of our eight models say it’ll happen and seven of eight give Memphis a 40% shot or greater), and I’ve no clue why UCLA is ranked other than people politely forgetting how absolutely, utterly awful they looked for 2.5 quarters against Texas A&M. Plus, if I screw this pick up, they play at noon so it can get over with early.
We need three more upsets, and, because I’m a hopeful person, we’re picking one from each group. On average, we’re looking at about 1.3 upsets from the top ten teams and 2.3 from 11-25. One of them is Memphis over UCLA; the other two are #14 Louisville over #3 Clemson and…wait, BYU over #10 Wisconsin? Uh…sure!
I’m rationalizing this with the following: the top 12 teams playing this week (FSU’s off) have an expected record of 10.45-1.55. The remaining nine favorites are expected to go about 6.95-2.05. If we’re to follow this, we need two top 12 upsets. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner gets a Clemson team at home that’s yet to force a turnover in front of a bonkers crowd. Good enough for me.
The other one’s borderline impossible to rationalize because BYU has looked like absolute butt thus far, but Wisconsin (minus Jonathan Taylor Tailback) has yet to look consistently good on offense thus far. This could just as easily be a Wisconsin blowout as it could be a weird, wonky 17-14 BYU win. It’s worth the risk.
Forcing in two top 12 upsets leads me to leave out the San Diego State over #19 Stanford pick I’d hoped to use. We need a new one, and, wildly enough, we’re going to go for an 80-89% game. The 80-99% games this week have an expected record of 11.25-0.75 and, combined, have about a 44.3% chance of going 12-0. That’s still pretty good, but it’s more likely than not we get a serious upset loss. It’s also significantly more likely it’s an 80-89% team.
I only seriously considered two games from this bracket: Oregon State-#21 Washington State and Illinois-#22 USF. We’re rolling with Illinois over #22 USF and I’m not confident. Oregon State really should be 0-3, because FCS Portland State completely outplayed them in every sense of the word. Illinois just beat what I thought could be a 12-0 Western Kentucky team and it wasn’t a fluke. By recruiting rankings, Illinois has more talent. By coaching rankings, Charlie Strong was one of the very worst by CFB Matrix Coach Effect in the last decade. Go Illini!
I very rarely pick a 90-99% upset, but if there’s going to be one it would have to be an absolute shocker: something like East Carolina over #16 Virginia Tech or Air Force beating #7 Michigan. Neither is going to happen in all likelihood, but both did have at least one model peg them as less than 90% favorites. Also interesting was the idea of Samford over #13 Georgia. Sagarin Ratings had that game at 83.5%, which is crazy, but also lends respect to a Samford team expected to be a strong contender in the Southern Conference.
Good luck on your picks this week, and wait for the first national college football writer to talk about how the worst weeks have the best games. Or something like that.
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