playoffs – gyrateplus: the website

This is the state-wide projections post for the first round of the 2018 TSSAA football playoffs. To read projections only for East Tennessee, click here.

All games will be played on Friday at 7 PM local time. If this is not correct, please first contact TSSAA, then contact me. I work independently, and these schedules are from the state themselves. Public schools first, from 1A to 6A, followed by private schools, from II-A to II-AAA. Games are listed from Region 1 to 8, with the road team’s region listed first. My schedule is below, but for a full bracket, here’s all of TSSAA’s brackets.

As with the regular season work I do, all scores are rounded to the nearest whole number. This leads to some wonky-looking scores. Pay attention to the projected scoring margin, not as much the exact point totals themselves. In games decided by less than 0.5 points, decimals are used to emphasize the winner.

Coalfield 49, Jellico 0
Greenback 1, Unaka 0 (Unaka ineligible to play; Greenback gets Round of 16 bye)
Oliver Springs 42, Hancock County 0
Midway 23.3, Cloudland 23.0*
Jo Byrns 22, Lookout Valley 17
Gordonsville 42, Sale Creek 6
South Pittsburg 39, Monterey 2
Whitwell 50, Clay County 0
Wayne County 27.3, Huntland 26.9*
Huntingdon 46, Moore County 12
Mount Pleasant 30, Collinwood 17
Cornersville 49, McEwen 5
West Carroll 21.4, Hillcrest 20.9*
Freedom Prep Academy 41, South Fulton 12
Greenfield 21, MASE 19
Lake County 39, Westwood 13

Oneida 31, Happy Valley 15
Meigs County 50, Sullivan North 0
Rockwood 20, Hampton 15
South Greene 30, Wartburg 23
Trousdale County 35, Marion County 12
Watertown 40, Bledsoe County 4
Polk County 26, Westmoreland 19
Tyner Academy 45, East Robertson 5
Riverside 28, Eagleville 20
Waverly Central 40, Forrest 20
Columbia Academy 33, Hickman County 8
Lewis County 39, Houston County 7
Mitchell 22, Trinity Christian 17
Fairley 30, Gibson County 17
Union City 27, Frederick Douglass 17
Peabody 38, MAHS 5

Austin-East 49, Chuckey-Doak 3
Alcoa 70, Claiborne 0
Kingston 26, Unicoi County 20
Johnson County 23.1, Gatlinburg-Pittman 22.9*
Sequatchie County 34, Brainerd 18
Upperman 41, Loudon 5
York Institute 27, Signal Mountain 24
Red Bank 38, Smith County 10
Camden Central 25, Stratford 21
Fairview 44, Whites Creek 7
East Nashville 45, Sycamore 1
Pearl-Cohn 53, Cheatham County Central 0
McNairy Central 24, Raleigh-Egypt 22
Wooddale 26, South Gibson 22
Milan 37, Trezevant 18
Covington 45, Melrose 4

Chattanooga Central 25, Sullivan South 23
Anderson County 47, Union County 12
Elizabethton 39, Howard Tech 10
Greeneville 47, East Hamilton 0
Tullahoma 30, Livingston Academy 10
Maplewood 46, DeKalb County 1
Nolensville 30, Macon County 12
Stone Memorial 25, Marshall County 21
Jackson South Side 27, Creek Wood 15
Jackson North Side 36, Portland 13
Hardin County 23, Montgomery Central 22
Springfield 38, Chester County 14
Crockett County 33, Craigmont 16
Millington Central 27, Ripley 26
Haywood 49, Fayette Ware 0
Dyersburg 60, Memphis East 0

South-Doyle 28.0, Tennessee 27.5*
Knoxville Central 40, Cocke County 12
Daniel Boone 34, Gibbs 16
David Crockett 38, Halls 9
Knoxville Catholic 24, Knoxville West 14
Soddy-Daisy 32, Clinton 21
Oak Ridge 39, Rhea County 12
Fulton 45, Lenoir City 4
Beech 27, Summit 17
Hillsboro 36, Lincoln County 13
Shelbyville Central 34, Gallatin 17
Page 45, Hillwood 14
Ridgeway 37, Dyer County 18
Kirby 35, Kenwood 9
Clarksville 32, Southwind 18
Henry County 43, Munford 9

Ooltewah 29, Hardin Valley 27
Maryville 33, Bearden 14
Science Hill 28, Bradley Central 27
Farragut 40, Cleveland 11
Hendersonville 34, Riverdale 20
Mount Juliet 37, Cookeville 11
Blackman 34, Lebanon 10
Oakland 42, Rossview 5
Ravenwood 34, Nashville Overton 8
Brentwood 35, McGavock 13
Smyrna 30, Independence 23
Cane Ridge 32, Franklin 16
Whitehaven 34, Collieville 12
Germantown 47, Arlington 9
Cordova 24, Memphis Central 21
Houston 34, White Station 16

II-A

Clarksville Academy 35, King’s Academy 23
Middle Tennessee Christian 31, Jackson Christian 16
Grace Baptist Academy 31, Tipton-Rosemark Academy 23
Nashville Christian 39, Ezell-Harding 17

II-AA

Lausanne Collegiate 50, Goodpasture Christian 11
Evangelical Christian 31, Lipscomb Academy 12
Christ Presbyterian Academy 44, University School of Jackson 5
St. George’s 28.3, Harding Academy 28.1*
Notre Dame 39, CAK 13
Franklin Road Academy 32, Grace Christian 18
Battle Ground Academy 41, Silverdale Academy 5
Webb 29, Chattanooga Christian 13

II-AAA

Briarcrest Christian 38, St. Benedict at Auburndale 8
Ensworth 32, Father Ryan 13
Baylor 26, Pope John Paul 18

Some notes on games:

55 games have expected scoring margins of 20 points or more. The expected win rate in these games is about 96.3%, which means about two of these large favorites should be expected to lose. These would constitute some pretty shocking losses, so keep your eyes out.
29 of the 110 games on Friday are projected to have single-digit scoring margins, including six in 3A alone.
Of last year’s nine class champions, about 2.46 of these teams are expected to repeat. Those with the highest odds: Alcoa (3A, 69.7% odds of title), Greeneville (65.6%), and Greenback (31.4%).
There’s a 61% chance that a top-five team in one of the public school divisions loses. The most likely favorites to lose are Fairley (2A, 78.4% odds of winning), Maryville (86.7%), and Blackman (91.7%).
About 2.67 of the projected six public school champions are expected to actually win the title; 1.8 of the three private school champions should do the same.
Projected public school championships by region: East Tennessee 3.12, Middle Tennessee 1.74, West Tennessee 1.14.
Projected private school championships by region: Middle Tennessee 2.12, West Tennessee 0.67, East Tennessee 0.21.

Here’s the full probabilities for each round for ALL 231 TEAMS in the field:

Good luck to all teams this week, and check back next week for Round of 16 projections.