East Tennessee high school football projections, week 6

Yet again, another solid week for the projection system – 26 wins and 5 losses (83.9%), 124-30 on the year (80.5%), 102-19 (84.3%) from Week 2 onward. Also, one week after the biggest upset of the season, that upset got one-upped – Soddy-Daisy was a 36 point underdog at Knoxville Catholic and won 17-7. No other upset comes close to that for the last two seasons.

As a reminder, you can keep track of the season via this spreadsheet:

Click over to your favorite team’s page for fully updated win projections throughout the season. Also, a new update: the Running Win Totals tab now also accounts for Region Wins throughout the season. I’ve reorganized the tab to show the projected standings in each region, though, of course, it only covers the 51 teams that this site covers.

Here’s this week’s games and their projected outcomes:

THURSDAY

• Greenback 37, Grace Christian 19

FRIDAY

• Maryville 35, Fulton 18
• Brentwood Academy 46, Knoxville Catholic 21
• Alcoa 41, Dobyns-Bennett 16
• Farragut 36, West 5
• Oak Ridge 42, Sevier County 0
• Jefferson County 30, William Blount 17
• Bearden 43, CAK 3
• Powell 32, Lenoir City 18
• Austin-East 29, Halls 18
• Coalfield 31, Marion County 27
• Gibbs 30, Morristown East 21
• Central 31, Clinton 4
• South-Doyle 42, Carter 4
• Harriman 35, Rockwood 22
• Morristown West 40, Cherokee 18
• Karns 30, Scott 28
• Gatlinburg-Pittman 38, Trinity Academy 21
• Anderson County 48, Heritage 14
• Cocke County 42, Pigeon Forge 16
• Oliver Springs 46, Claiborne 10
• Stone Memorial 38, Kingston 13
• Loudon 30, Northview 27
• Midway 32, Tellico Plains 23
• Wartburg 29, Sunbright 24
• Union County 38, Hancock County 13

Some notes on this week’s games…

• Grace Christian-Greenback is pretty fascinating. This is likely Greenback’s biggest remaining obstacle to a 10-0 season (Coalfield and Harriman may also be challenging), and their quality road win at Oliver Springs last week helps their odds. Grace Christian was on track to be about a ~10 point underdog in this before they got obliterated by an 0-4 Webb team.
• Maryville-Fulton is likely to be a better game than the score suggests. Fulton looks to be getting better every week, while Maryville’s got to figure out how to recover from their surprising loss to Alcoa. This will be only one of two games Fulton is currently projected to be an underdog in (Oak Ridge, week 11).
• Knoxville Catholic-Brentwood Academy would’ve potentially been the game of the week at this time last Thursday. Now, Catholic has to figure out how in the world they lost by two scores to a Soddy-Daisy team that lost at home to Lenoir City. Meanwhile, Brentwood Academy’s last four games: 43-3, 43-7, 49-0, 48-7.
• Dobyns-Bennett and Alcoa are playing, but it would be a surprise if this one’s too close. Two other top ten teams in the state have played D-B (Greeneville and Oak Ridge); they won by a combined score of 84-15.
• Farragut-West may end up being better than advertised, if only because West appears to have found their offense. Of course, no team other than Oak Ridge has kept it closer than 30 against Farragut this year. They’re at least on a similar level as the 2016 state championship team and may end up being better. That team trailed at halftime in four of their ten regular season games; this year’s edition has led by 13, 24, 28, 7, and 24 at halftimes so far.
• Other games of note: Harriman-Rockwood is the 99th edition of an old East Tennessee rivalry; Harriman has been a major surprise so far, while Rockwood has been surprising in a negative direction. Believe it or not, Anderson County-Heritage represents Heritage’s best remaining chance at a win (2.7%); Coalfield-Marion County is a close one; both Morristown East and Gibbs desperately need a win; Scott-Karns represents Karns’ best chance to grab a win in 2018; Northview-Loudon might get Loudon out of the defeated column, as they’re very small underdogs, but Northview’s win over Kingston improved their odds; Wartburg-Sunbright represents a great opportunity for Sunbright to turn their season around; lastly, Cocke County can move to 4-1 with a win over Pigeon Forge. They’ll be favored at Cherokee next week. A dream season appears to be in the making.

Now, for season-long updates. You can view the Running Win Totals on the spreadsheet above.

• Biggest overachievers versus preseason expectations: Harriman (+2.70 wins above expectation), Oliver Springs (+2.55), Cocke County (+2.49), Union County (+2.43), Powell (+2.24), Midway (+2.15).
• Biggest underachievers: Kingston (-3.57 wins below expectation), King’s Academy (-3.48), Loudon (-2.74), Pigeon Forge (-2.40), Rockwood (-2.34), Morristown East (-2.26), Campbell County (-2.02).
• About 3.56 undefeated teams expected this year. Only seven teams are still in contention: Greeneville (91.5% chance of 10-0), Alcoa (91.5%), Farragut (62.8%), Greenback (56.7%), Anderson County (49.8%), Fulton (3.7%), and Midway (0.1%). Keep going, Midway!
• Unfortunately, about 1.43 defeated teams are expected. Only five teams are still in contention: Heritage (95% chance of 0-10), King’s Academy (34.6%), Karns (10.5%), Loudon (2.3%), and Sunbright (0.2%).

That’s it for this week. Good luck to all teams involved, and have fun at the games this weekend.

East Tennessee high school football projections, week 5

Outside of one major upset that several people have yelled at me for calling an upset (it was an upset), this projection system went a solid 24-5 (82.8%) last week, bringing the season total to 98-25 (79.7%). After week one’s craziness where the projections only correctly predicted 22 of 33 games, it’s on a 76-14 (84.4%) tear over the last three weeks. I’m interested to see how long that holds.

As a reminder, you can keep track of the season via this spreadsheet:

Click over to your favorite team’s page for fully updated win projections throughout the season. Also, a new update: the Running Win Totals tab now also accounts for Region Wins throughout the season. I’ve reorganized the tab to show the projected standings in each region, though, of course, it only covers the 51 teams that this site covers.

Here’s this week’s games and their projected outcomes:

THURSDAY

• South-Doyle 28, Sevier County 14

FRIDAY

• Bearden 33, Science Hill 15
• Farragut 39, Jefferson County 3
• Greeneville 46, Pisgah (NC) 9
• Oak Ridge 27, West 10
• Knoxville Catholic 52, Soddy-Daisy 13
• Hardin Valley 30, Morristown West 19
• Ooltewah 39, William Blount 23
• Alcoa 75, Pigeon Forge 0
• Rhea County 27, Lenoir City 26.7*
• Chattanooga Christian 28, CAK 21
• David Crockett 32, Cocke County 23
• Greenback 36, Oliver Springs 21
• Grace Christian 33, Webb 19
• Fulton 51, Karns 2
• Halls 28, Carter 20
• Tennessee 35, Morristown East 19
• Anderson County 43, Howard 11
• Powell 31, Clinton 12
• Campbell County 32, Gibbs 21
• Central 29, Seymour 6
• Gatlinburg-Pittman 33, Scott 28
• Meigs County 43, Rockwood 8
• McMinn County 39, Heritage 14
• Signal Mountain 28, Loudon 26
• Kingston 32, Northview 20
• Mt. Juliet Christian 33, King’s Academy 18
• Union County 24, Sullivan East 22
• Harriman 47, Sunbright 10
• Coalfield 58, Oakdale 1
• Happy Valley 43, Cosby 4

Some notes on this week’s games…

• Obviously, I blew it on Alcoa. I personally thought the game would be closer than 29, simply because Alcoa-Maryville always appears to be close…but I also thought Maryville would win by 2-3 touchdowns. I do not make subjective adjustments to the ratings in any way, so I ran with the objective numbers that I figured would be more correct than my assumptions. Turns out that the early-season points boost Maryville got for beating Oakland might’ve been premature, and Alcoa absolutely wasn’t given enough credit in computer systems for obliterating their first three opponents. Anyway, Alcoa-Pigeon Forge is tomorrow night, and I already feel bad for what’s about to happen.
• Sevier County and South-Doyle isn’t the game of the week or anything, but it does represent a great opportunity for both schools: South-Doyle could use a rebound after their beatdown by Bearden last week, while Sevier County, even if it’s not a win, badly needs a good performance; they’ve been trending in the wrong direction ever since they led 21-0 Week One against Jefferson County.
• Had Science Hill-Bearden been held on August 13, I think most people would’ve expected a close Science Hill win. On September 13, Bearden is projected to win by 18. It took FOUR GAMES, but Bearden finally allowed double-digit first downs to an opponent…and then out-first-downed said opponent 23-12. Farragut-Bearden on October 11 is beginning to look like the best game left on the schedule at least in East Tennessee; only Oakland-Blackman projects to be a better game statewide.
• Oak Ridge-West has the most local buzz of any game this week, and it may be underrated by the sheet above: West, albeit against poor competition, has rebounded from an 0-2 start and looks to possibly be finding an offense, while Oak Ridge has to figure out how to return after a tough 20-14 loss at home to Farragut. I don’t even think this game hits the suggested 37 point total; West’s path to victory likely depends on holding OR to 14 or less in regulation, and it’s not that unreasonable to think they can.
• Rhea County-Lenoir City is the first projected tie of 2018. Of course, you can’t have ties in high school football, but the projected margin is Rhea County by 0.3 points. This actually represents a pretty huge opportunity for Lenoir City: Rhea County has been kind of disappointing so far, as what should’ve been a 3-0 start is now 2-1 with a tough road game coming up. A 1-3 start for Lenoir that peaked with a terrible loss at CAK last week could be redeemed by a win here, and it would get them back on the path to a playoff bid.
• Finally, two games that no one expected to be interested in a month ago, but here we are: Greenback-Oliver Springs and David Crockett-Cocke County. The first of these is almost entirely due to the stunning 3-0 start from Oliver Springs, their first since 2005. Greenback has played to expectation so far – AKA, blowing out three opponents and comfortably beating Loudon – but what looked like a cakewalk schedule a month ago has suddenly gotten tougher. If Greenback makes it through the next four games unscathed, a second straight 1A title feels like a formality. For the second game, Cocke County’s start is just as stunning: 3-0, but with two blowouts and a road win at Carter. Now, Cocke County is on its way to their first winning season since 1998, per athletic director A.C. Willis. (TSSAA suggests 1996, but I’m taking his word for it.) If they beat David Crockett, they’re looking at a strong likelihood of a 6-0 start.

Now, for season-long updates.

• Biggest overachievers versus preseason expectations: Bearden (+2.76 wins above expectation), Cocke County (+2.64), Oliver Springs (+2.46), Harriman (+2.37), Powell (+2.04).
• Underachievers: Webb (-3.06), Pigeon Forge (-2.95), King’s Academy (-2.80), Loudon (-2.10).
• Still looking at about four undefeated teams, most likely. The top contenders to go undefeated are Alcoa (97% chance of 10-0), Greeneville (89.3%), Anderson County (70.1%), Farragut (52.4%), and Greenback (46.8%). Second-tier contenders: Bearden (15.7%). Teams on the periphery: Fulton (2.9%), Oliver Springs (2.8%), Cocke County (1.4%).
• Unfortunately, there’s a good chance that we get an 0-10 team. Heritage is now 81% likely to go 0-10.

That’s it for this week. Good luck to all teams involved, and have fun at the games this weekend.

East Tennessee high school football projections, week 4

Last week was almost all chalk – a 27-2 record for this system’s projected favorites, with only a couple small upsets: Carter (+1.5) over Seymour and Brainerd (+2.5) over Loudon. Generally, this will happen when the vast majority of the games feature large favorites, but to see every team that was expected to win by a healthy amount take care of business was pleasing. This brings the projection system’s record to 74-20 (78.7%) on the season, which is a little ahead of my goal of 75%.

As a reminder, you can keep track of the season via this spreadsheet:

Click over to your favorite team’s page for fully updated win projections throughout the season.

Here’s this week’s games and their projected outcomes:

THURSDAY

• Anderson County 40, Clinton 13

FRIDAY

• Farragut 26, Oak Ridge 22
• Maryville 41, Alcoa 12
• Bearden 28, South-Doyle 15
• Greeneville 45, Science Hill 13
• Knoxville Catholic 45, Cleveland 20
• Hardin Valley 24, Central 17
• Fulton 33, Austin-East 14
• McCallie 43, Webb 16
• Dobyns-Bennett 39, Sevier County 11
• Campbell County 31, Morristown East 24
• David Crockett 28, Gibbs 17
• West 27, Halls 13
• Jefferson County 30, Carter 9
• Oneida 35, Harriman 23
• Gatlinburg-Pittman 37, Hampton 30
• Lenoir City 34, CAK 19
• William Blount 39, Heritage 20
• Sequoyah 33, Loudon 28
• Rockwood 28, Kingston 24
• Powell 42, Karns 9
• Seymour 28, Cherokee 23
• Oliver Springs 33, Northview 18
• Union County 28, Claiborne 27
• Coalfield 43, Sunbright 12
• Midway 45, Unaka 0
• Wartburg 40, Oakdale 16 (!)
• Cosby 25, North Greene 20

Some notes on this week’s games…

• Farragut-Oak Ridge is the game of the week, though Alcoa-Maryville will steal headlines. A win on either side, despite this not being a Region game, is quietly pretty huge: pre-Week 5 rating adjustments, Farragut would become 56% likely to go undefeated with a win. It’s even bigger for Oak Ridge: about 76% odds of 10-0 with a victory. The season-ender with Fulton still looms large for OR, as does Farragut’s Week 9 road game at Bearden, but the path is clearing for both.
• Alcoa-Maryville is probably a blowout in waiting, but that’s fine; it won’t change the fact that Alcoa currently is favored by at least 25 points in every Region game and that their worst realistic record heading into November is 8-2. Maryville is 92% likely to go 10-0, and this is the toughest remaining challenge on the schedule, besides questionably Fulton.
• South-Doyle and Bearden probably wasn’t in the top six or seven games for this week at the start of the season, but it’s the best of the undercard. S-D has run through their first three opponents with ease – an average score of 48-10 – while Bearden simply might have the best defense by a non-Maryville/Oakland team in 6A. It’s still yet to be seen if Bearden’s offense can produce points when needed, which makes this game pretty interesting to me. Also, it’s a game between two teams outperforming their preseason expectations massively; both were expected to go 6-4 or so, but S-D is now favored to start 7-1 and Bearden 6-1.
• On the flip side, Science Hill-Greeneville was expected to be a much better game a few weeks back. While Greeneville has wrecked everything in their path, SCHS has gone 1-2 in coin-flip games, getting upset by Elizabethton in Week One, upsetting Ooltewah in Week Two, and then receiving another upset from 0-2 Dobyns-Bennett in Week Three. They seem to possess the ability to make any game close, but until further notice, it’s hard to envision a Greeneville game being close.
• Hardin Valley-Central should be fun: a team with its back against the wall staring down a 1-3 start in Central trying to squeak out a win over an HVA team that just obliterated Heritage. (More on poor Heritage later.)
• Other lower-tier games with close expected finals: Morristown East-Campbell County (two 1-2 teams that could use a win), Gatlinburg-Pittman and Hampton (GP has been impossible to figure out week-to-week, while Hampton is trending sharply upward right now), Sequoyah-Loudon (two teams that have looked worse each week), Rockwood-Kingston (a rivalry of sorts), Cherokee-Seymour (Cherokee badly needs a win after three straight double-digit losses), Claiborne-Union County, and Cosby-North Greene.

You can access it above, but here’s the season-long win projections page for discussion.

Quick statistics to catch you up:

• Biggest risers versus their preseason expectations: Cocke County (+3.07 wins), Midway (+2.45), South-Doyle (+2.35), Bearden (+2.29), and Powell (+2.01). More on Cocke in a minute.
• Biggest underachievers: Kingston (-3.21), King’s Academy (-2.83), Webb (-2.67), Pigeon Forge (-2.65). Brutal year for local private schools and 3A-2 teams not named Alcoa.
• Still looking at about four undefeated teams, most likely. The top contenders to go undefeated are Maryville (91.9% chance of finishing 10-0), Greeneville (91%), Greenback (46.3%), Anderson County (44.5%), Farragut (33%), and Oak Ridge (31.4%). Other contenders on the fringe (1%-10%): South-Doyle (10.5%), Bearden (8%), Cocke County (3.6%), Alcoa (3.4%), and Oliver Springs (1.1%).
• There is only one team with a serious chance of going Defeated right now, and unfortunately, it’s pretty high: Heritage has a 38.9% chance of going 0-10. Karns (8.39%) and Cosby (16.7%) are on notice.

Lastly, I want to discuss a story that we’re going to watch develop this year. No one locally has covered it yet, so let me be the first: Cocke County is in great position to find their first winning season in 22 years. The Fighting Cocks (yes, their real name) are 3-0 on the season, with an expected final record of 7.67 wins and 2.33 losses, or 7-3/8-2. (Massey expects about 6.3 wins, for the record.) At the very least, they’re staring down just the second .500 regular season finish in 17 seasons. If all breaks as projected, they’re on track to have the best season at the school since the 1996 Fighting Cocks team that went 8-2 and lost to Greeneville in overtime in the first round of the 4A playoffs.

Yes, Cocke County started 3-0 last year, defeating the same three teams…but their schedule was quite a bit tougher last year, too. I have them projected as double-digit favorites in at four remaining games, with Morristown East the only one of those that could drop below a 10-point expected win. Even better, no game is out of their hands, as they aren’t more than an eight-point underdog in any game at the moment (Daniel Boone, week 9). This is more of a “keep it on your periphery” thing at the moment, and Cocke doesn’t even play this week. But: if week seven rolls around and Cocke County is sitting at 5-1 after beating Pigeon Forge and Cherokee, take note – this is potentially the best story in East Tennessee high school football in 2018.

Good luck to all teams this week, and remember to check back in next week.

East Tennessee high school football projections, week three

Welcome back for another week! Week two was much better for the projection system: a record of 25-7, one game above expectation, which brings it to 47-18 (.723) after two weeks, or about 1.75 games below expectation. Not too bad! As noted after week one, it’s not surprising to see a lot of bugs being worked out and a lot of uncertainty surrounding various teams. After a couple more weeks, the projections should be pretty steady.

This week, unfortunately, doesn’t promise many exciting games. Of the 29 games on the schedule, just six are expected to have an outcome within single digits; 18 of the 29 are 90% favorites (22.2 points) or better. The highest-rated Game Score this week is a game where the favorite is expected to win by 64 points. The closest game is between two teams with expected final records of 5-5. Don’t expect too many fireworks this week, though anything can happen.

Here’s this week’s games, in spreadsheet form:

A note: obviously, you cannot score negative digits in football games. If it were possible, Tennessee would’ve done it last season. So those numbers are rounded up to 0. What’s left of the negatives is added to the favorite’s score to fulfill the total expected points in the game. As usual, all projected scores are rounded to the nearest whole.

THURSDAY

• Maryville 64, McMinn County 0
• Gatlinburg-Pittman 30, Northview 26
• Cocke County 42, South Greene 18

FRIDAY

• Bearden 26, Jefferson County 10
• Farragut 44, Morristown West 7
• Fulton 32, Powell 17
• Oak Ridge 45, Campbell County 5
• Central 18, Sevier County 17
• Ensworth 39, Webb 13
• Cleveland 42, William Blount 18
• South-Doyle 33, Gibbs 15
• Greeneville 77, Union County 0
• Alcoa 64, Scott 0
• Coalfield 34, Harriman 29
• Notre Dame 40, CAK 14
• Hardin Valley 41, Heritage 11
• Morristown East 32, Cherokee 28
• Seymour 21, Carter 20
• Grace Christian 32, Boyd-Buchanan 12
• Austin-East 39, Kingston 9
• West 35, Karns 8
• Loudon 31, Brainerd 28
• Anderson County 51, Hixson 8
• Middle Tennessee Christian 36, The King’s Academy 14
• Greenback 54, Sunbright 2
• Oneida 47, Wartburg 7
• Midway 47, Oakdale 9
• Sullivan North 50, Cosby 0

SATURDAY

• Rockwood 39, Tellico Plains 12

Quick observations:

• This is…not the most competitive week I’ve ever seen. Thirteen! of the 29 games have teams projected to score 10 or fewer points. Hopefully, that’s not the case, because if it is, this is going to be a pretty dreadful week of football. That’s a shame for the first week of Region play.
• Also, some of these point spreads are going to be terribly difficult to cover. A lot of these 20+ point favorites should win (though the system expects about 0.56 losses from 90% or higher likelihood teams), but some of these will be closer than expected.
• Anyway, actual games. Central-Sevier County is easily the “best” and most interesting of these, with Central coming in at 0-2 in a coin-flip Region 5A-2 game against a Sevier County team that painfully blew a 21-0 lead in Week One but followed it up with a tidy 34-14 win over Heritage. Three games into a ten-game season, I hate to call anything a “must-win game,” but a third straight Central loss heading into a home duel with Hardin Valley where they’ll be small underdogs would make for a nightmare start. Central was a team I thought was clearly the best in 5A-2 heading into this season; we’ll see if they can find that potential.
• Another good game is Northview-Gatlinburg Pittman on Thursday. You might not confuse these two for world-beaters at this moment (the two teams are projected for 4-6 and 5-5), but it’s a huge battle for the latter two 3A-2 playoff bids. Alcoa should win the division and Austin-East should finish second, but all five teams (including Scott) are in serious contention for third and fourth. A win by either would be a big step in the right direction, especially with both coming off of bad Week Two performances.
• The other four close games, in order, are Harriman-Coalfield (both have smashed Wartburg, while Harriman upset Kingston and Coalfield fell to York Institute), Morristown East-Cherokee (both need a win in the worst way), Seymour-Carter (Seymour is coming off of a huge win over Clinton, while Carter fell at home to Cocke County), and Loudon-Brainerd (both teams have suffered two double-digit losses).
• Others: Bearden-Jefferson County actually could be really fun, but this seems like the best Bearden team in several years; Fulton-Powell is interesting because Fulton played about a C-plus game against Central and can’t afford the same against a Powell team that has looked seriously good through two games; South Doyle-Gibbs could be good.

And here’s the season-long projections, now with a new feature: plus-minus expected wins versus the preseason expectation.

Some quick statistics:

• Your biggest surprises after two weeks are Midway (+2.68 expected wins), Cocke County (+2.36), Jefferson County (+2.17), Bearden (+2.15), and Powell (+2.06). Midway went from a 4-6 projection to 7-3 and are 85% likely to start 5-0.
• On the flipside, the biggest disappointments to date: Kingston (-3.24 expected wins), Pigeon Forge (-2.70), Webb (-2.36), King’s Academy (-2.10), and Central (-2.09). If they’d like, the two 3A-2 teams that head this list can simply blame it on Alcoa.
• We’re now looking at an expectation of four undefeated teams, thanks to Maryville’s huge win over Oakland last Friday. Your most likely 10-0 teams this year: Maryville (93.82% chance of 10-0), Greeneville (91.73%), Anderson County (58.71%), Greenback (55.31%), Farragut (37.11%), and Oak Ridge (23.31%). Keep an eye on Bearden (6.44%), South-Doyle (5.04%), and Alcoa (2.89%).
• The most interesting regional race of the week is 1A-2, where Greenback will win the region and four (!) teams are projected from 3.28 to 3.86 region wins. One of Coalfield, Oliver Springs, Harriman, and Midway will have to miss the playoffs, and it won’t be very fair to any of them.

Good luck to all of the teams this week, and I look forward to seeing everyone back next Thursday.

East Tennessee high school football projections, week one

Look at that: we’re back, and football’s back, and everything is automatically better now. High school football’s return is the marking of a greater shift, one that brings cooler temperatures and, generally, warmer feelings.

In East Tennessee, we’re especially blessed to have the quality of football we’ve had for the last few years. Of the six public school championships available to win in 2017, East Tennessee schools won five, an astounding and applause-worthy number. Not since 2009 has East Tennessee failed to capture at least two of the six championships. On the private side, Webb won three straight championships from 2012 to 2014 and five of six titles from 2009 to 2014. One of the greatest high school dynasties of the last 20 years resides in Maryville.

It goes without saying that, as the season returns, we should all be thankful for the football we’ll get to watch this season, regardless of how the University itself performs. Plenty of young athletes here will never play at UT, and it doesn’t matter: for at least 10 nights every fall, they get to play their hearts out and their butts off for their friends, families, and coaches. That’s what’s meaningful.

Anyway, you didn’t come here for a sermon. As a reminder, the season-long win totals are available here:

As noted last week, you can keep track of those all season long, including the individual team sheets, which will automatically update weekly. For Week One, here’s every game listed, with projected winners in bold. A new feature: all point totals are rounded to the nearest whole point to limit potential confusion. In the case of a whole-point tie, it will be italicized. For full numbers, including win percentage likelihoods, the Week 1 sheet is available at the bottom.

THURSDAY (all games at 7:30 PM Eastern unless otherwise listed)

• Oak Ridge 25, Hardin Valley 21 (7:00 PM, WVLT-CBS)
• Alcoa 43, Grace Christian 7
• Central 34, Tennessee 10
• Northview Academy 29, West Greene 17
• Rockwood 35, Midway 19
• Kingston 36, Harriman 22

FRIDAY (all games at 7:30 PM Eastern unless otherwise listed)

• Maryville 37, Knoxville Catholic 27
• Farragut 30, Bradley Central 23
• Greeneville 35, Dobyns-Bennett 27
• Bearden 24, West 12
• Jefferson County 18, Sevier County 17
• Halls 26, Powell 23
• Webb 32, Evangelical Christian 21 (7 PM)
• Austin-East 30, Gibbs 16
• Morristown West 32, Morristown East 19
• South-Doyle 32, Heritage 20
• Campbell County 38, Cherokee 25
• William Blount 29, Lenoir City 28
• Greenback 44, Loudon 18
• Christ (NC) 38, CAK 12
• Karns 32, Cocke County 31
• David Crockett 24, Seymour 15
• Gatlinburg-Pittman 38, Cloudland 27
• Clinton 29, Scott 20
• King’s Academy 30, Silverdale Academy 15
• Oliver Springs 23, Bledsoe County 19
• Coalfield 47, Wartburg 12
• Pigeon Forge 38, Chuckey-Doak 13
• Cumberland Gap 26, Union County 22
• Sunbright 34, Sale Creek 16
• Cosby 26, Hancock County 23
• Oakdale 35, Pickett County 25

SATURDAY

• Anderson County 43, Carter 14 (7:30 PM)

Notes on Individual Games

• Oak Ridge-Hardin Valley doesn’t necessarily mean a ton for the season, because it’s not a regional game and it doesn’t really effect season-long win totals for either by much. (With a win, Hardin Valley’s most likely final record goes from 5-5 to 6-4, while Oak Ridge would go from 7-3 to 8-2.) However, it’s potentially a good referendum for both schools. Oak Ridge enters the year as a top three team in 5A, and while Catholic and Fulton will get more publicity, they’ll be a serious contender to take the title home in December. Hardin Valley, meanwhile, might not even be a top half team in 6A, but that’s more because it’s an insanely difficult conference. For them to defeat a future state championship contender on the new turf field in Week One would be a serious boost to the program’s credibility and could potentially signal an overachieving year after a just-okay 2017 where they missed the playoffs.
• Likewise, Maryville-Knoxville Catholic doesn’t really mean that much beyond bragging rights, but it’s two of the five best teams in the state and the defending 5A and 6A champions facing off to start the high school season. You really can’t beat that, and it’s great that the two agreed to the home-and-home series. Last year’s 49-42 classic will be tough to match, but it’s fair to expect a very good and entertaining game. Catholic figuring out to replace their top two receivers from 2017’s title run coupled with Maryville having to start a new QB/RB tandem makes for a fascinating chess match.
• Greeneville and Dobyns-Bennett feels like a serious contender for Game of the Week. The Green(e) Devils roll out four legitimate FBS prospects (and a few likely FCS ones, too), including a pair of ACC commits in WR Dorien Goddard (Virginia) and TE Cameron Hite (Wake Forest). (Long snapper Will Albright is committed to Tennessee, and WR Cade Ballard to Army.) Their 15-0 run to a championship in 2017 featured only one serious 60-minute challenge, from Anderson County in the playoffs. Dobyns-Bennett returns most of the production from an eight-win team that made the second round of the playoffs last year and features two likely FBS players in OG Cade Salyers (Air Force and Army offers, Appalachian State likely next) and QB Lendon Redwine (6’4″ pro-style with interest from several FBS schools). It’s going to be fun. Of special note: Greeneville goes from 58% likelihood of a 10-0 season to 80% with a win.
• Same with Bradley Central-Farragut, a really fun early game with two teams figuring out how to replace their 2017 stars (Jay Person and Lameric Tucker for Bradley, Jacob Warren and Braden Collins for Farragut). Farragut simply gets to give other future D-1 players their shot at stardom – WR Jaden Gibbs (UT-Martin), WR Tanner Corum (Southern Illinois), and RB Isaiah Gibbs (UT-Martin). Both teams are returning a lot of 2017 production, and both, more so Farragut, are likely to make a lot of November (and possibly December) noise.
• Other games of note: West-Bearden features a pair of great defenses, so much so that I feel the suggested total of 36.5 might be high; Grace Christian-Alcoa is very likely to be a blowout, but it shouldn’t distract from either Alcoa going for a fourth straight 3A title or Grace Christian being in a quasi-rebuild mode (7 total starters return) with their sights still set on a playoff run; Jefferson County-Sevier County is both the closest projected game of the week and the lowest projected total of the week – first to 10 wins?; Halls-Powell is a sneaky good game that I expect to be close and personally think Powell wins; Carter-Anderson County begins Anderson County’s run for a second straight undefeated regular season; Greenback starts their 1A title defense (second in program history) against Loudon; keep an eye on Morristown West-Morristown East and Heritage-South-Doyle, where both favorites were impossible to figure out a year ago.

Good luck to all teams this week, and I hope you’ll be back for more analysis next week.

East Tennessee high school football predictions, week one

I’ve been working on a projection model for the last few months that, hopefully, will help make an unpredictable sport slightly more predictable. Using past performance, I’ve combined the two known projection models in Tennessee high school football: Sonny Moore’s Power Ratings and Cal Preps, which also operates as Max Preps. These are two very different models. The Cal Preps model covers all schools in the United States, so it adjusts ratings to the national average. By proxy, there are several more Tennessee schools considered below average than Sonny Moore’s ratings would suggest. Moore’s ratings are Tennessee exclusive.

With that in mind, we’ve blended a national and state model to attempt to produce a good product. I’m looking into creating my own model based on something resembling Bill Connelly’s S&P+, but it’s very hard to do so until coaches and teams begin to submit more fully-realized statistical data. Until then, we’re using this.

I’ve included my spreadsheet at the end so you can peruse some of the data I’ve got. Here’s a legend for reading everything you’ll see below:

• Excitement Score: A score that calculates a team’s program quality and success based on wins over the last four years. Formula goes like this: 2016 wins + 2015 W*0.7 + 2014 W*0.4 + 2013 W*0.2 = total.
• Power Score: The combined ratings of the two teams. Higher = better quality game.
• Combined: Excitement Score + Power Score.
• Projected Total: The amount of total points scored in the game per a projection combining last year’s data with adjustments based on returning production. We can’t get comprehensive production numbers for most of these teams, but I’ve tried to assemble projected points scored and allowed as best I can.
• Projected Outcome: Projected scoring margin. If it has a minus/negative sign in front of it, that means the home team is favored.
• Away, Home, and Favorite Win%: Based on a formula I whipped up and was able to test with solid success, the likelihood that the away or home team (and the favored team) will win the game.
• S&P+ Win%: Using Bill Connelly’s S&P+ data, the projected likelihood of the favored team winning the game.

Now, onto the games:

Thursday

Alcoa 42.7, Grace Christian 6.6 (Combo Model 99.9%; S&P+ 98.5%)
Carter 38, Anderson Co. 28.9 (Combo Model 66.7%; S&P+ 70%)
Central 41.3, Tennessee 9.3 (Combo Model 99.9%; S&P+ 96.8%)

Friday

Maryville 37.9, Knoxville Catholic 26.1 (Combo Model 71.6%, S&P+ 75.2%)
Farragut 34.5, Bradley Central 25.0 (Combo Model 67.4%, S&P+ 70.9%)
Oak Ridge 26.1, Hardin Valley 22.2 (Combo Model 57.1%, S&P+ 58.9%)
Gibbs 31.3, Austin-East 24.4 (Combo Model 62.7%, S&P+ 65.7%)
Heritage 26.8, South-Doyle 26.5 (Combo Model 50.5%, S&P+ 50.8%)
Morristown West 34.4, Morristown East 18.5 (Combo Model 79.1%, S&P+ 82.2%)
Campbell County 40.9, Cherokee 18.9 (Combo Model 90.4%, S&P+ 89%)
Greenback 42.2, Loudon 8.4 (Combo Model 99.9%, S&P+ 99.4%)
Jefferson County 24.9, Sevier County 24.1 (Combo Model 51.4%, S&P+ 51.7%)
Seymour 25.0, David Crockett 24.0 (Combo Model 51.9%, S&P+ 52.5%)
Kingston 31.4, Harriman 25.7 (Combo Model 60.4%, S&P+ 63.0%)
William Blount 29.7, Lenoir City 21.3 (Combo Model 65.4%, S&P+ 68.6%)
Cloudland 33.0, Gatlinburg-Pittman 31.4 (Combo Model 52.8%, S&P+ 53.8%)
Powell 36.5, Halls 23.8 (Combo Model 73.2%, S&P+ 76.9%)
Pigeon Forge 32.3, West Greene 14.8 (Combo Model 82.1%, S&P+ 84.5%)
CAK 29.6, Christ (NC) 27.0 (Combo Model 54.7%, S&P+ 56.0%)
Scott 36.3, Clinton 24.5 (Combo Model 71.6%, S&P+ 75.2%)

Saturday

Bearden 21.9, West 21.2 (Combo Model 51.3%, S&P+ 51.7%)

Programming notes:

• The best of these games is clearly Catholic-Maryville for several reasons. For one, the two teams combined have more Division I prospects than potentially the other 20 games combined. For another, Catholic must replace tons of talent while Maryville has to replace possibly the greatest coach in East Tennessee high school history.
• Under-the-radar good game: Farragut at Bradley Central. The defending state champs travel to Cleveland for game one, and Bradley Central’s been very good for a while now.
• The third good game: Hardin Valley at Oak Ridge. Oak Ridge must replace Tee Higgins; Hardin Valley had the best season in school history last year (9-4 and a quarterfinals run), but they only return eight starters from that team and have to replace basically every option in the passing game. Aaron Dykes (2* RB, committed to Furman) had nearly 1,500 yards on the ground last year.

Lastly, win probabilities for percentage categories, using both our model and S&P. My model first:

• 50-59% (7 games): 3.7 wins-3.3 losses
• 60-69% (5 games): 3.23-1.77
• 70-79% (4 games): 2.96-1.04
• 80-89% (1 game): 0.82-0.18
• 90-99.9% (4 games): 3.9-0.1

And S&P+:

• 50-59% (7 games): 3.75-3.25
• 60-69% (3 games): 1.97-1.03
• 70-79% (5 games): 3.68-1.32
• 80-89% (3 games): 2.56-0.44
• 90-99.9% (3 games): 2.95-0.05

On average, we can expect around six upsets this weekend, all most likely between 50-79%. If it comes to what is inferred by the original model, look for three 50-59% upsets, two from 60-69%, and one from 70-79%. We’ll see how this shakes out, with an update next week.