Deeply weird week last week – every single game in the 60-69% range on S&P+ went for the underdog. There was a 1.66% chance that every single one of those underdogs would win. That’s the beauty of this sport – it’s still unpredictable just when we think we’ve got it nailed down. We went 16-7 overall, which moves us to 49-22 on the season for our picks.
50-59% (4 games, 15-8 on season): 2.09 wins-1.91 losses
60-69% (4 games, 2-9 on season): 2.6-1.4
70-79% (5 games, 10-2 on season): 3.75-1.25
80-89% (8 games, 9-2 on season): 6.78-1.22
90-99% (2 games, 14-1 on season): 1.83-0.17
First off, holy crap, it’s terrible to be a favorite of about 4.5 to 9 points: you’re gonna lose 9 of every 11 games so far. For this to happen is a massive statistical anomaly, and we’ll either have to wait on the system to shake itself out with more data or for regression to the mean. Same with 50-59%: its 15-8 record is a solid 2.35 games above expectation. That’s not nearly as bad as 60-69%. Together, these constitute a 17-17 record if you’re a 0 to 9 point favorite. The expected record of these groups is about 20-14 – flagging a bit behind, but not as major as they look when broken down otherwise.
If you’re a major favorite, you’re sitting fairly pretty: double-digit or greater favorites are 33-5 on the season, or just one game above expectation. The 70-79% group should regress a tiny bit, but both 80-89% and 90-99% are generally fine.
We’ve made it! Through the harsh 7.5 month winter, an offseason that was wild, and about 15 million other things. I couldn’t be more excited to share season two of Upset Spotting with you guys. Last year, our model finished above 50% on the season, a remarkable rate considering that, on average, underdogs win in Vegas about 20% of the time. I’m looking forward to seeing which ways we can progress forward consistently in 2017.
To start, we’ve added several new models to the mix. Welcome Edward Kambour, Doktor Entropy, and Sagarin Ratings to the mix. These three have consistently shown their worth and ability to predict college football a bit above everyone else’s expectations. They’ve all been around for a long time, and I’m excited to see if these models can help us spot upsets at a more accurate rate in 2017.
Here’s how Week One looks:
As you can see, this isn’t exactly the most exciting Week One in recent memory. I have just four games involving a Top 25 team where the favorite has less than a 70% likelihood of winning the game. It’s abysmal and disappointing, especially considering I also do Knoxville-area high school odds on the side now and Week Two of the high school season brought 22 of 27 games being under 80% win likelihood. Hopefully, opening weekend will be more balanced in 2018.
Let’s get to the win categories. (It feels GREAT to say this.)
50-59% (expected record of 1.13-0.87): #25 Tennessee (vs. Georgia Tech) (54.2%), #11 Michigan (vs. #17 Florida) (59.0%)
60-69% (expected record of 1.34-0.66): #21 Virginia Tech (vs. #22 West Virginia) (63.9%), #15 Georgia (vs. Appalachian State) (69.7%)
70-79% (expected record of 2.28-0.72): #1 Alabama (vs. #3 Florida State) (71.6%), #10 Oklahoma State (vs. Tulsa) (77.3%), #23 Texas (vs. Maryland) (78.9%)
80-89% (expected record of 2.56-0.44): #13 LSU (vs. BYU) (82.8%), #4 USC (vs. Western Michigan) (83.1%), #2 Ohio State (at Indiana) (89.6%)
90-99% (expected record of 10.62-0.38): every other game
Well, sorry, I’m not going to get into the boring Great Team vs. Awful Team games. The only teams that had a single model put them below 90% to win their game in the 90%+ category were #16 Louisville vs. Purdue (88.9% from Sagarin) and #20 Kansas State hosting FCS Central Arkansas (88.5% from Sagarin). It’s pretty unlikely that any 90%+ team loses a game this weekend, but if they do, it’s most likely one of those two teams. There! You’re caught up.
As for the games with outcomes in doubt, it appears we can expect one upset from each of the 50-59%, 60-69%, and 70-79% ranges. When you subtract games versus Top 25 teams from our model, it appears to expect about one loss from a Top 6-15 team to an unranked team and one from Top 16-25. Figuring out these games is as tough as it gets, so we’re going to take a pair of shots in the dark to start the season: Georgia Tech over #25 Tennessee and Appalachian State over #15 Georgia.
Why are we hating on the SEC East? Well, two reasons:
Tennessee is coached by Butch Jones.
Georgia is coached by Kirby Smart and somehow retained Jim Chaney as its offensive coordinator.
As I said, these are shots in the dark. I picked Appalachian State because they were given the highest chance of winning from a model among the teams facing Top 6-15 teams: a 48.9% chance (!!!!!) from Sagarin. As a Tennessee fan, I’ve feared a Georgia Tech win for six months. Might as well pick it here, too. Also, as it stands, there are 17 games with double-digit favorites from the Top 25 this weekend…and about 1.57 expected losses. Even if we lay the conservative side of this, you should expect at least one big-time shocker. It was either Georgia or Oklahoma State, and I have a feeling it’s not going to be the team with a great coach and an NFL QB/WR tandem.
For the third, we’ll need a Top 25 team to beat another Top 25 team. We exhausted our 50-59% games and 60-69% games…so why not pick one from 70-79%? If it ends up being wrong, it was worth a shot: #3 Florida State over #1 Alabama. As weird as that sounds, think of it like this: few teams in the entire nation can recruit in the same stratosphere as Alabama. Even crazier, two other teams in the nation have ten or more 5* players on their roster. Georgia’s one. Florida State is another. Let’s give it a shot.
Other upsets considered: #22 West Virginia over #21 Virginia Tech and Tulsa over #10 Oklahoma State. If our numbers are correct, three of the five upsets we’re looking at will happen.
Last week was tough because of all the close games – I believe I counted 22 of the 27 that were within the 50-79% range for the favorite, which is crazy. That almost never happens with what we do. So it wasn’t surprising for our model to go 17-10 (33-15 on the season) despite just eight expected losses. We’ve reworked and tweaked the methods used for the first two weeks in an attempt to get better numbers for week three. I’m excited to share it with you!
I love doing these, and I’m looking forward to seeing what else we can do this season. At some point, I’m hoping to debut individual team pages that show the most likely outcomes for each team for the rest of their season. I’ve already used up enough words, so here’s this week’s picks:
Hey, look at that! Right at the end, my model and Bill Connelly’s model predict the exact same likelihood of a win. That’s neat. Anyway, here’s how many close, middling, and blowout games we have this week, per S&P+:
50-59% (3 games): 1.65 wins-1.35 losses
60-69% (4 games): 2.56-1.44
70-79% (2 games): 1.48-0.52
80-89% (7 games): 6.01-0.99
90-99.9% (7 games): 6.66-0.34
In contrast to last week, this week looks like a lot of blowouts. I think we’ll see probably one pretty surprising upset – maybe Morristown West or Karns pull off a shocker? – and a few in the lower regions. Combining the models, we expect favorites to win 18.3 of the 23 games this week.
POSTSCRIPT: I’d like to shout out my high school, Warren County, located in McMinnville. For the first time since 2007, we’ve started out 2-0. This is important because Warren County has not finished a season with a winning record since 1990, the longest active streak in the state. This is harrowing to all who have come through the program, but there’s reasons to be excited about this start. In both games, the Pioneers have exceeded my pregame point spread by at least a touchdown (beat DeKalb Co. by 16, expected to win by 7.6; beat White Co. by 41, expected to win by 13.2).
This Friday, they play Cookeville at home in what could be a pivotal game en route to a winning season. I have Warren County favored in three more games – at Shelbyville, at Coffee Co., and at Fayetteville. Win those and 5-5 is on the table – tied for the best season of the last 27 years. All they have to do to get to 6-4 is beat Cookeville (16.2 point underdogs) or Siegel (12.3 point underdogs). Those are tall tasks, but Warren County has about a 37% chance of winning one or the other. That’s not bad at all, and it will likely go up with a good performance against Cookeville this weekend. Judging on their first two games, this may be the first team in a while to seriously exceed expectations. I’m hoping for the best. Good luck to my hometown!
We’re back for another week! The projection models combined for a solid 16-5 record last week, two games above the expected 14-7 record. We’ll see how well this holds up, but it’s a nice start. Below is the same intro from last week; the picks follow.
I’ve been working on a projection model for the last few months that, hopefully, will help make an unpredictable sport slightly more predictable. Using past performance, I’ve combined the two known projection models in Tennessee high school football: Sonny Moore’s Power Ratings and Cal Preps, which also operates as Max Preps. These are two very different models. The Cal Preps model covers all schools in the United States, so it adjusts ratings to the national average. By proxy, there are several more Tennessee schools considered below average than Sonny Moore’s ratings would suggest. Moore’s ratings are Tennessee exclusive.
With that in mind, we’ve blended a national and state model to attempt to produce a good product. I’m looking into creating my own model based on something resembling Bill Connelly’s S&P+, but it’s very hard to do so until coaches and teams begin to submit more fully-realized statistical data. Until then, we’re using this.
I’ve included my spreadsheet at the end so you can peruse some of the data I’ve got. Here’s a legend for reading everything you’ll see below:
Excitement Score: A score that calculates a team’s program quality and success based on wins over the last four years. Formula goes like this: 2016 wins + 2015 W*0.7 + 2014 W*0.4 + 2013 W*0.2 = total.
Power Score: The combined ratings of the two teams. Higher = better quality game.
Combined: Excitement Score + Power Score.
Projected Total: The amount of total points scored in the game per a projection combining last year’s data with adjustments based on returning production. We can’t get comprehensive production numbers for most of these teams, but I’ve tried to assemble projected points scored and allowed as best I can.
Projected Outcome: Projected scoring margin. If it has a minus/negative sign in front of it, that means the home team is favored.
Away, Home, and Favorite Win%: Based on a formula I whipped up and was able to test with solid success, the likelihood that the away or home team (and the favored team) will win the game.
S&P+ Win%: Using Bill Connelly’s S&P+ data, the projected likelihood of the favored team winning the game.
Last week’s results called 16 of 21 games correctly. They missed on David Crockett over Seymour (47.5% chance of happening per S&P+), Christ (NC) over CAK (44%), Austin-East over Gibbs (34.3%), Lenoir City over William Blount (31.4%), and Clinton over Scott (24.8%). At least four of those had solid potential to happen, and the only real surprise was the Clinton win. Here’s how each level of win probability fared:
50-59% (7 games, exp. record 3.75-3.25): 5-2
60-69% (3 games, exp. record 1.97-1.03): 1-2
70-79% (5 games, exp. record 3.68-1.32): 4-1
80-89% (3 games, exp. record 2.56-0.44): 3-0
90-99% (3 games, exp. record 2.95-0.05): 3-0
Not bad at all. We need at least five more weeks of data to see if we’re heading in the right direction.
Now, onto the games:
Thursday
Jefferson County 28.2, Morristown East 22.2 (Model 61%, S&P+ 63.5%) (Game already played; Jefferson County won 26-6.)
There are a TON of toss-up type games this week that could go either way. That’s awesome, because it means there should be very few blowouts. Here’s what the models expect this week:
This is yet another dumb idea I had late on a weekday night, based on a recent podcast from the guys at the Solid Verbal. They offhandedly mentioned their still-to-come hipster college football teams for 2017. I love dumb stuff like this, because it helps me waste time and think about my favorite four months of the year. However, this is the first time I’ve gotten into it to this extent. Below, I’ve created Rules to even be considered a Hipster Team in the first place and Preferences to narrow down our true champion for 2017. Consider this the preamble to a much larger post coming down the pipe ranking the watchability of teams this season.
There are several rules and regulations in this post to try and create a list of teams that casual college football fans probably don’t know much about. Some entries will obviously surprise you (Louisville? Houston?) but a large amount of these teams are effortlessly lovable. Kind of like my new favorite band of the year. Below, your eleven 2017 Hipster Teams.
Rules:
Must not be ranked in the preseason AP Top 10. We’re currently assuming this to be ten of the following 12 teams: Alabama, Florida State, Clemson, Ohio State, USC, Penn State, Auburn, Washington, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Michigan, and LSU.
Must have won less than 10 games in the regular season in 2016. I hate to do this, but once a team hits double digits in wins, the secret’s sort of out. True hipsters hate when the secret’s out and they have to deal with these dumb normals being fans. We’re allowing a 9-3 record with a bowl win under special circumstances – you didn’t finish in the AP Top 10 (if you’re a G5 team, the Top 25), which means you weren’t that popular. Sorry, USF and San Diego State – the Bulls will crush in the 2017 ESPN GamePlan Power Rankings of the most relentlessly watchable teams.
Must have appeared in a bowl game in 2016. Sorry, Oregon and Texas Tech. It’s not your fault. Well, it is, but you get the point. Even hipsters like winners.
Must be projected to be a top-20 scoring offense in the nation (38 PPG or higher). I’m using Phil Steele’s guide for this, which is based predominantly on returning production and past performance. It’s a good resource.
Preferences:
Group of Five status preferred, but not a requirement. We’ll accept Power Five conference teams that meet our requirements.
Quirky or otherwise attractive coaches preferred. I get it if you like Paul Chryst because he’s a good coach (he is). No one likes him because he has an unusual personality.
Electric or exciting QBs preferred. Must be projected for 1,000 rushing yards or more.
Have a ridiculously fast or shifty punt returner/utility guy? Perfect! We love guys that see the field eight times per game. Required: 4 punt returns of 30+ yards OR 4 kick returns of 40+ yards.
Top-25 per-play offense in 2016.
If G5, game vs. Power Five on national TV. For P5s, game vs. projected Top 10 team.
Head coach is at his first job. Half-point for second job if at Group of Five school.
Prolific QB through the air. Must be projected for 3,600 passing yards or more.
Team averaged 3+ sacks per game in 2016. Sacks are dope.
Team forced 27+ turnovers in 2016.
Projected as Top 15 team in total offense.
Projected as Top 15 team in passing offense.
If you meet the Rules, you get three points each. Preferences earn you one point each, and Preference #6 earns you one point for each game or occurrence.
11. Kansas State (15.5 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Interesting head coach, 1,000+ rushing yard QB.
Kansas State met all four conditions we required just to make this list of rankings: not a top 10 team, went 9-3 or worse in the 2016 regular season, appeared in a bowl game (and won!), and is projected to be a top-20 offense by scoring. Good enough! Seriously, Kansas State football is never anything less than interesting, has a literal wizard as a head coach, and has beaten Top 25 opponents often enough (though not since 2014) for us to always be on alert. It’s worth noting that despite losing their last nine against Top 25 competition, four came by one possession. Against non-Top 25 teams in games decided by one possession from 2012 on? 10-3 (2-4 vs. Top 25). Kansas State has a weird ability to make nearly any game entertaining, and having a quarterback who led the team in rushing last year in Jesse Ertz (1,184 non-sack yards on 183 carries) helps. Worth noting: Bill Snyder is 30-11 ATS as an underdog of any kind since 2009 and is 42-12 at home in the same span. Guess who comes to Manhattan in 2017? Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. Not bad.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Texas (October 7), TCU (October 14), Oklahoma (October 21), at Oklahoma State (November 18)
T-9. Tulsa (16.75 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Potentially fun QB, multiple Top 25 opponent opportunities, rising star coach
You last saw Tulsa obliterating a Central Michigan team that kind of beat Oklahoma State. They were secretly one of the most fun teams in college football last year: dumped 42.5 points per game on opponents, posted 40+ points in 10 of 13 games, played Tom Herman and Houston down to literally the final yard of the game, and crescendoed with a wild comeback against Cincinnati and a 55-10 bowl win. They lose a lot – no more Dane Evans (3,348 yards), James Flanders (1,629 rushing yards), or two 1,000 yard receivers. But: the presumed starting QB is named Chad President, their coach does some weird yoga stuff with his wife, D’Angelo Brewer (1,435 rushing yards) returns, and including his time as the lone offensive coordinator at Baylor (co-OC 2008-2011), there’s yet to have been even a good Philip Montgomery offense. They’ve all been great or elite.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Oklahoma State (August 31), at USF (November 16)
T-9. Louisiana Tech (16.75 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Top 25 per-play offense, 3+ sacks per game, top 15 passing offense
Louisiana Tech closed a quietly extremely fun season where nearly every game either had a ridiculous scoreline or a crazy finish with a game that had both – the Armed Forces Bowl against Navy. The Bulldogs won 48-45 in what might’ve been the most purely fun game of the postseason not involving Penn State or USC. Anyway, it’s with regret that I note they lost the three top producers from an insane offense: QB Ryan Higgins (4,617 yards) and receivers Trent Taylor (1,803 yards) and Carlos Henderson (1,535 yards). The good news: Tech could have their best running QB in some time if J’Mar Smith starts and overcame similar issues last year (9 returning starters in 2016). Supposedly, their offense will decline slightly while their defense will be better. So, yet again, a terribly frustrating team no one wants to play and everyone gets to enjoy. Fine by me! The Week 2-4 stretch of Mississippi State/WKU/South Carolina will be a delight, and the chances they pick off one of the two SEC teams seems fairly high. Get in before those late to the party do, and try to stay on board when they inevitably drop a game to North Texas or Rice.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: Mississippi State (September 9)
8. TCU (17.25 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Interesting coach, 3+ sacks per game, top 15 total yardage
2016 TCU oscillated wildly between irrelevance and straight-up wild. Back-to-back-to-back weeks produced this: a listless overtime loss to a garbage Texas Tech team, a 62-22 road blowout of 6-1 Baylor, and a 31-6 home loss to Oklahoma State. Also, they gave up 41 to South Dakota State, lost in overtime to Arkansas in a super entertaining game, lost 52-46 to Oklahoma in a throwback of 2012 Bonkers Big 12, beat Kansas by a point, and beat Texas 31-9 out of nowhere in between 31-6 and 30-6 losses. It’s a very strong version of Young Team Things. TCU is now Older and won’t be as prone to this, but their SEO is down a bit thanks to last year’s 6-7 run that concluded with a loss to the worst Georgia team since 2009. However, let me submit the following: Kenny Hill quietly ran for 813 non-sack yards last year and threw for 3,208 yards. TCU brings back their top eight receivers. Their defense dropped 43 sacks on opponents last year and returns 22.5 of those this season. Gary Patterson is wildly entertaining and a great coach. Plus, if you’re looking for a team that is guaranteed to play in an instant classic, TCU’s pulled it off in eight of the last nine seasons. On the negative side, I doubt TCU fans are enthralled with left politics.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Oklahoma State (September 23), vs. Texas (November 4), at Oklahoma (November 11)
T-6. Pittsburgh (17.5 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Electric return man, top 25 yards per play, rising star coach, 3+ sacks per game
I hate to do this, but when you think of Pittsburgh, you don’t think excitement. You either think about (no longer!) boring, title-winning football or boring, title-winning hockey. (Sorry, Pirates.) Or you think of food. Anyway, you don’t really think about an exciting, unknown college football team. That changed in the span of a few seconds last fall.
Never gets old. We really thought Clemson was done in the title race! (For about three hours.) Anyway, that was just one of a bunch of bizarro classics Pitt played in, in order: 42-39 W against Penn State, 45-38 L to Oklahoma State, 37-36 L to North Carolina, 37-34 W against Georgia Tech, 39-36 L to Virginia Tech, and the highest-scoring FBS game in regulation of all time, a 76-61 W over Syracuse. With a defensive head coach and not much name power, this was one of the last teams you’d expect to be aggressively watchable, and yet they were. Now, they have to figure out how to replace future NFL bench guy Nathan Peterman and excellent OC Matt Canada, which means fans are preemptively abstaining from jumping on the bandwagon. Screw ’em. They’ve still got maybe the most fun kick returner in college football who can do anything at any time, a coach that could be taking a major job in the near future in Pat Narduzzi, and a defense that dropped 43 sacks last year. Will they be as good as last year’s edition? Probably not. But what if things come together quickly and Narduzzi’s as good as some think? Then you’ll want to say you were there when they were playing shows to 17 people.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Penn State (September 9), vs. Oklahoma State (September 16), vs. Miami (FL) (November 24)
T-6. Houston (17.5 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Coach at first job, 3+ sacks per game, top 15 pass offense
Houston was the most interesting team in college football for about six weeks last year. They dumped Oklahoma on the side of the road to start the year, came back in waves against Cincinnati, and avoided any sort of letdown…until October 8, when they went to Navy and the Midshipmen blasted them with an unstoppable option game. Then the wheels fell off in proportion with Tom Herman’s coaching rumors shooting up: a goal-line stand to beat Tulsa the next week. A 38-16 loss to SMU. A near-collapse at home against UCF. They came out of nowhere to obliterate Louisville, but then lost at Memphis the next week. After that, Herman was gone. Now, for me, they might be more interesting to start the year: Major Applewhite’s in his first year as a head coach. They had a great defense last year that sacked QBs relentlessly and bring back seven starters from it, including future first round pick Ed Oliver. The offense brings back eight, with the new QB being a former five-star recruit who was fine in his one year at Texas A&M. They’ll go from a rushing-dominant offense to one that can light up opponents through the air – subjectively way more fun. No one will be paying attention to them to start.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Arizona (September 9), vs. Texas Tech (September 23), at USF (November 4)
5. Colorado St. (17.75 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Top 25 yards per play, coach at first job, QB with 3,600+ pass yards, top 15 total offense
As someone who has written postgame columns about Tennessee football for two seasons, I was taken aback by how ridiculously efficient their clogged-toilet offense became out of nowhere in November. A team that languished around the 40s and 50s for efficiency was suddenly the #1 per-play offense in the nation for a month. More shocking to me was #2: the Colorado State Rams. There was basically no reason for national commentators to care or know about Colorado State football last year thanks to a slow start (3-4, including a 44-7 loss to rival Colorado) and a bland and boring team. Nothing stood out about them until a six-game offensive run to end the year like this: 42, 37, 46, 49, 63, and 50 points. Suddenly, the Rams lit up every team they played. Why was this? A thrilling quarterback in Nick Stevens who was hurt earlier in the season, a very underrated offensive coach in Mike Bobo, and a team much better than their record showed. No one seems to know this, but the Rams will likely be favored in 10 of their 12 games this year and possibly 11. Might be time to see them while the shows are still cheap.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: Oregon State (August 26), Colorado (September 1), at Alabama (September 16), vs. Boise State (November 11)
4. Louisville (18 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Interesting coach, fun QB, top 25 yards per play, multiple Top 10 opponent opportunities
It really can’t be said enough that Louisville rehired a coach who left them without warning to run the Atlanta Falcons for 13 games and had a mistress on a motorcycle. Bobby Petrino is as fascinating as they come. He’s also really good at coaching! I know what you’re thinking: wasn’t Louisville in the Top 10 for most of last season? Weren’t they in the national conversation for three months? Didn’t their incredibly fun quarterback win the Heisman Trophy?!?!? Yes, all of this is true. What’s also true is they lost their final three games to go 9-4. They qualify for this, and just barely. Think of it like your favorite band getting onto a major label and having a phenomenal album followed by a stinker that causes people to stop paying attention. Or something. Anyway, people aren’t paying as much attention to what will be a very fun team that will be on TV often. Plus, Louisville’s still an underrated city and they were very close to ranking second or first on this list.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: Clemson (September 16), at Florida State (October 21)
3. Memphis (18.25 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Rising star coach, QB with 3,600+ pass yards, top 15 total offense, top 15 pass offense
Memphis was quietly fun last year and then became very fun right at the end: a lot gelled together in November and bowl season, and they closed the final five games with 51, 42, 34, 48, and 31 points. Not bad! Even better: they beat Houston on Black Friday, smashed Cincinnati, and pushed 11-win South Florida to the brink. This was a really fun team that had the misfortune of losing some SEO after Justin Fuente left for Virginia Tech, but Mike Norvell appears to be pretty good in his own right. Memphis secretly had the top Group of Five recruiting class this past offseason, and their days as a confusingly bad program seem to be over. They return Riley Ferguson, a Tennessee transfer who dropped 3,698 yards and 30 TDs last year. The offense is projected to be top 15 in total yardage and pass offense. They’ll have a few opportunities to prove themselves on a national stage, including what could be an Absolutely Giant Game for the Tigers on September 16th at home against UCLA (the biggest-name non-Tennessee opponent to visit Memphis since potentially 1996 Miami). The schedule sets itself up for a 5-1 or 6-0 start hinging on the UCLA game. Both of their high-end AAC games are played on weeknights for higher visibility. It’s a real from-the-ground-up opportunity.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: UCLA (September 16), Houston (October 19), Tulsa (November 3)
2. Oklahoma St. (18.5 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Interesting coach, top 25 yards per play, QB with 3,600+ pass yards, top 15 total offense, top 15 pass offense
Everyone’s favorite Hipster Team was so, so close to being #1. Subjectively, this might be the team I watch the most this year: there’s no better mix of intoxicating offense, beloved coach, rapid-fire attacks, and schedule both on this list and maybe in all of college football. They’ll play a Top 10 team at home on November 4th in Oklahoma. That concludes a four-week run of epic offensive competition: Baylor, Texas, West Virginia, and the Sooners. Those four games may combine for 300+ points. They play three of the teams on this list in the first four weeks: Tulsa, Pittsburgh, and TCU. They play a fourth in November (Kansas State). Mason Rudolph may be a Top 5 pick in the next NFL Draft. They have one of the best receivers in football, known only as Junkyard Jim. I would eliminate precisely one testicle if it meant Mike Gundy would coach my beloved Tennessee. And they came up just shy. They’re #1 on my subjective list, but coming up second to our first-place team is no dishonor. These Cowboys will be a favorite of many.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: Every game but South Alabama, Iowa State, and Kansas.
1. Western Kentucky (18.75 points)
SCORED HIGHLY IN: Interesting coach, electric return man, top 25 yards per play, rising star coach, QB with 3,600+ pass yards, top 15 pass offense
Yes, the following’s all true:
Western Kentucky won 23 games in the last two seasons.
Their coach just left for Purdue.
Most people know about Western Kentucky football by now, right?
WRONG. If you asked casual football fans about Western Kentucky, their response would be one of the following: “the team that gave up the weird Hail Mary?”, “yeah, they play Alabama sometimes”, or “of course! 34 bowl confidence points last year!” I guarantee that almost none of them know how great Western Kentucky has been. That’s what makes WKU insanely attractive at all times: it feels like you’re being let in on a secret you’re not supposed to know about. The Toppers are the best program to come through Conference USA in a very long time. They get to bring back Mike White at QB, who tossed a pretty 4,363 yards/37 TD/7 INT combo last year. Here’s an insane and true stat: Western Kentucky didn’t score less than 44 points in any of their final ten games. Oh, and they have a legitimate contender for the most electric kickoff returner in college football. Lastly – and this one ashamedly put them even higher for me, personally – Mike Sanford, Jr. is easily the hottest coach on this list. Easily. WKU will be favored in at least 11 of their 12 games – all that stands between them and Normie Love are road wins at Illinois and Vanderbilt.
GAMES IN WHICH THIS TEAM WILL PLAY THE SPORT OF COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL AGAINST HIGH-END COMPETITION: at Illinois (September 9), at Vanderbilt (November 4)
This is a 2017-18 update of a simple and easy project I did last year: take the five projected starters for all 30 NBA teams, average their projected Box Plus-Minus by CARMELO, and rank the teams in each conference.
Teams’ projected over/unders for wins by Las Vegas are in parentheses:
Eastern Conference
Cleveland (56.5)
Boston (N/A)
Milwaukee (42.5)
Toronto (47.5)
Charlotte (40.5)
Philadelphia (40.5)
Washington (45.5)
Detroit (40.5)
Orlando (40.5)
Miami (40.5)
Indiana (30.5)
New York Knicks (34.5)
Brooklyn (21.5)
Atlanta (34.5)
Chicago (29.5)
Western Conference
Golden State (67.5)
Houston (55.5)
Oklahoma City (46.5)
San Antonio (55.5)
Minnesota (46.5)
New Orleans (43.5)
Denver (42.5)
Utah (N/A)
Los Angeles Clippers (34.5)
Portland (38.5)
Memphis (42.5)
Dallas (34.5)
Phoenix (25.5)
Sacramento (N/A)
Los Angeles Lakers (36.5)
Some observations:
Systems such as this will overvalue the impact one player may have in a lineup of duds. I believe this to be the case with the New Orleans Pelicans, who, on the surface, were still bad even after the DeMarcus Cousins trade. In fact, this small sample size treasure exists: post-Cousins trade, the Pelicans went 4-4 without Cousins playing and 7-10 with. Together, that’s 11-14 (36-46 pace full season), which isn’t much different from the average 25-game sample before (10-15). However, New Orleans outscored their opponents (+0.3 per 100 possessions) over those final 25 games, a stark improvement from the -3.2 Net Rating they posted in the first 57. They were average-ish defensively (108.1 DRtg, 11th full season), but much better on offense – 108.4 ORtg (16th full season) over the final 25 games compared to 104.7 (28th) in the first 57. If they’re average offensively and defensively, they probably won’t make the playoffs. But the chance of them making the playoffs is much higher than most think.
The Eastern Conference version of this is Orlando, who actually ranks 8th in non-minutes-adjusted starting lineups. This seems very wrong, considering this same team with minimal adjustments went 29-53 last year and should’ve been much worse (24-58 by Pythagorean W-L). But – HOWEVER! – there’s reasons to be optimistic.
None of Orlando’s top five minute-getters in 2016-17 were older than 26.
Terrence Ross is somehow still only 26, too.
The projected starting lineup in 2017-18 for Orlando, by age: 23, 25, 26, 27, 22.
No projected starter for Orlando ranks worse in Box Plus-Minus than -0.5. Pretty good! That’s better than all but three teams in the Eastern Conference.
Of course, Orlando’s best player by BPM (Aaron Gordon) comes in at a projected +1.2. That’s the fourth-worst top player in the conference. We’ll see on this one, but it makes me a lot more curious about the Magic than I was previously. My early guess is that it’ll take around 38-40 wins to make the playoffs in the East next year, and Orlando’s O/U is 40.5. Why not take a stab here?
Here’s a couple teams these rankings see as major sells: Washington and the Los Angeles Lakers. (I’m letting Memphis slide, because 42.5 is pretty absurd for a team with no Randolph/Allen/JaMychal Green.) My system likes John Wall and Bradley Beal, of course, but it sees two problems: Otto Porter’s departure to Brooklyn single-handedly takes their small forward position from fourth-best in the conference to second-worst (Oubre Jr. still can’t shoot from three) and is really disenchanted with the Morris/Gortat frontcourt. Porter was a major reason why the Wizards didn’t finish closer to their true expected wins of 45-37/46-36, and his departure could cost Washington as many as six wins if Wall/Beal don’t take yet another step upward. 42 or 43 wins may still get Washington the 5 seed, but I’m not in love with this lineup.
The Lakers are a lot simpler to figure out: the best player in the lineup (Brook Lopez) is the only positive BPM projection they’ve got. Lonzo Ball’s -0.8 projected BPM is #2. I think Lonzo will be quite a bit better than that, but I can’t quantify that right now. Plus, they’ll be starting Jordan Clarkson (has gotten worse every year), Brandon Ingram (the list of players who started their career with a -3.5 BPM or worse and went on to succeed is very small), and Julius Randle (probably about league average right now, but no real shooting range past 10 feet). If LaVar Ball’s prophecy comes true and the Lakers do make the playoffs, it’ll be primarily because of Lonzo and a massive Year 2 jump from Ingram.
In the Western Conference, there’s about ten teams that can make the playoffs. The cutoff is Portland; the starting lineup dropoff from Portland to Memphis was more than 4 points per 100 possessions. The top seven teams would all rank higher than the second-best team (Boston) in the East. That’s wild.
In the Eastern Conference, there appears to be 11 or 12 teams that can realistically make the playoffs. The cutoff is either Miami or the Knicks depending on how you look at it: Miami ranks about 1.6 points on average behind Orlando and Detroit on average, which can be made up with some end-of-game luck. The Knicks are closer to a 2.5 point deficit, which is very tough, but I’ll let it slide on the idea that Porzingis could continue to improve and carry the team.
The projected top five teams in the 2018 NBA Draft: Chicago, LA Lakers, Atlanta, Sacramento, Brooklyn.
90-99%: #17 Florida State (at Syracuse) (90.3%), #4 Clemson (at Wake Forest) (93.8%), #2 Ohio State (at Michigan State) (94%), #6 Washington (vs. Arizona State) (94.1%), #8 Penn State (at Rutgers) (95.3%), #20 Boise State (vs. UNLV) (96.1%), #7 Wisconsin (at Purdue) (96.6%), #3 Michigan (vs. Indiana) (96.8%), #25 Texas A&M (vs. UT-San Antonio) (97.7%), #21 Western Michigan (vs. Buffalo) (99.1%), #1 Alabama (vs. Chattanooga) (99.8%), #15 Auburn (vs. Alabama A&M) (100%)
An automatic rule on this site is that any higher-ranked team listed as the underdog is an automatic bet, so we’ll take TCU over #11 Oklahoma State for one of our upsets. After that, there’s 2.69 expected losses by favorites, so we’ll see if we can find three more. First off, the bottom half of this – #9 Oklahoma, #10 Colorado, and #13 USC, or the 50-75% group – promise 1.145 expected losses, or 1.
I like #22 Washington State over #10 Colorado for the following reasons: while Colorado’s pass defense is indeed excellent, they’ve played just three games against passing offenses in the 75th percentile or higher in college football (Washington State currently ranks 13th of 128, or around the 90th percentile). Those three teams (Michigan, USC, Oregon) posted these numbers: 63-100 (63%), 880 yards (8.8 YPA), 6 TD, 2 INT, and a 152.72 QB rating. That would be good enough for the 78th-best passing offense against teams with winning records (we’re using this to assume quality teams) and 51st-best against ranked opponents. I’m not convinced, Buffaloes.
Now, from the top group, there’s 1.5475 expected upsets left. I’m obviously on the fence for if there will be one or two, but in tradition with a season that had favorites performing far above average but has recently crashed back down to earth, let’s find two. In the true spirit of “why not,” here’s California over #24 Stanford. Rivalry games are weird, and Stanford’s offense has been below average all season long. I think a bad Cal defense can change that, but Stanford’s pass defense is unusually pedestrian – 55th in QB rating allowed, 58th in yards per attempt. Plus, California is playing with their backs against the wall for a bowl bid. It’s worth a shot, I guess.
Lastly, a weird one: Maryland over #18 Nebraska. It’s not that Maryland is at all good, but Tommy Armstrong will be out for Nebraska and Maryland’s pretty good rushing attack will go up against a very average Nebraska run defense. Why not. I gave strong thought to Houston over #5 Louisville but thought this was a slightly more likely event, though Houston’s run defense ranks #4 nationally against teams with winning records. This would make for a game similar to Auburn-Georgia last week, though I still think Louisville has enough to overcome a run game deficiency.
This week’s picks: TCU over #11 Oklahoma State, #22 Washington State over Colorado, California over #24 Stanford and Maryland over #18 Nebraska.
2-3 last week, sorry for no post. Whatever, no one reads these. 19-14 on the year. Let’s get rolling.
We only have to deal with favorites this week. Top 25 teams included. Win expectancy levels:
50-59% (1-1 last week, 5-5 overall): #16 West Virginia (at Texas) (52.3%), #15 Utah (at Arizona State) (59%)
60-69% (2-0 last week, 12-3 overall): #8 Texas A&M (vs. Ole Miss) (65.4%), #19 Nebraska (vs. Minnesota) (66.6%)
70-79% (5-2 last week, 18-5 overall): #24 LSU (at #25 Arkansas) (70.3%), #13 Oklahoma State (vs. Texas Tech) (74.3%), #10 Penn State (at Indiana) (74.9%), #17 UNC (at Duke) (75.3%), #4 Washington (vs. #20 USC) (75.4%), #14 Virginia Tech (vs. Georgia Tech) (79.2%), #11 Oklahoma (vs. Baylor) (79.5%)
80-89% (5-0 last week, 17-6 overall): #9 Auburn (at Georgia) (81.4%), #23 Washington State (vs. California) (83.7%), #12 Colorado (at Arizona) (84.4%), #22 Boise State (at Hawaii) (87.9%)
90-99% (6-0 last week, 50-1 overall): #2 Clemson (vs. Pitt) (90.8%), #3 Michigan (at Iowa) (91.3%), #21 Western Michigan (at Kent State) (92.1%), #18 Florida State (vs. Boston College) (92.8%), #7 Wisconsin (vs. Illinois) (94.1%), #6 Louisville (vs. Wake Forest) (96.8%), #1 Alabama (vs. Mississippi State) (97%)
You can find the usual expected losses/undefeated likelihood numbers in the image above.
There’s about 4.4 anticipated losses from Top 25 favorites this week, including two at the 70-79% range. We already have one with Duke over #17 UNC, and for the second one, I’m going against my anti-Washington/LSU instincts. The most powerful indicator of 70-79% upsets the last few weeks has been Atomic Football, which was the lowest model on both Texas A&M and Baylor last week. (Perhaps they hate Texas schools.) They suggest that both Oklahoma State losing to Texas Tech and Penn State to Indiana are worth a look. On the other hand, my spreadsheet suggested a -13.5 point spread for Penn State and Indiana. It’s at -7, which feels both bizarre and an indicator of something to come. (Oklahoma State’s point spread is about 2 points higher than I would’ve anticipated. The other notable spread: LSU -7, around 3 points lower than anticipated.)
I feel pretty comfortable in stating that one of these two will be your other likely 70-79% upset this weekend. I’m personally rolling with Indiana over #10 Penn State because I believe it’s the safest bet.
Time to find two more. The easy one now is Texas over #16 West Virginia in yet another Charlie Strong late-season special to top off our 50-59% range. Now, a disclaimer: from the 50-79% range, we have 3.278 expected losses. This means we need to find the 1.127 in the 80-99% range. It feels weird to go out on a limb and do this, but let’s find one. This feels gross, too, but why not: there’s a 9% greater chance the 80-89% group doesn’t go undefeated compared to 90-99%, so that’s the direction I’m going in. We’re missing one expected loss from the Top 6-15, so that narrows our decision down to #9 Auburn losing to Georgia or #12 Colorado losing to Arizona.
Why not go with a rivalry game with weird energy on both ends? Auburn needed a second-half appearance by their supposedly injured quarterback to defeat Vanderbilt, and Georgia, odd as it may seem, has heavily improved on defense over the last month, posting the 7th-best yards per play rate in October. This is the best defense Auburn will have played since an 18-13 win over LSU where they needed LSU’s final play to be about 0.3 seconds late to win. I’m liking this more and more, or maybe I’m just stupid: Georgia over #9 Auburn.
This week’s picks: Duke over #17 UNC, Texas over #16 West Virginia, Indiana over #10 Penn State, and Georgia over #9 Auburn.
All things fun have to end eventually. In this blog’s case, it ended with crashing through the floor and an 0-3 record on upsets last week despite two of our picks leading their games with 30 seconds to play. Football is beautiful, dumb, and frustrating. Let’s try to get back on track. Here’s this week’s spreadsheet…
I’ve included the Top 25 picks as a bonus because I want to get into those later, but the more I look at this, the more I think we could see upsets in pure numbers this week more so than anything truly shocking. I have extreme doubts that any of the top 10 teams playing an unranked opponent will lose this week, and I don’t think there’s even a feasible potential loss until you get to #15 Miami playing a somewhat difficult Georgia Tech team on the road. (More on that later.)
The Top 25 picks will help more as a guide to show what we were missing when we didn’t include them: without the T25 v. T25 games included, I wasn’t giving you the complete picture of how many Top 25 teams were likely to lose on a given weekend. That’s now fixed.
Anyway, the numbers you care most about: the models individually expect 3.85 upsets (S&P+), 3.71 (FPI), and 3.73 (Massey), creating a total number of around 3.76 anticipated losses. We can round that to the nearest whole number somewhat easily (four), so let’s find four upsets.
First up, your list of Top 25 teams versus unranked opponents, as ranked by win likelihood:
40-49% (1-0 last week, 2-1 through 3 weeks): #22 Texas (at Oklahoma State) (40.3%), #21 TCU (vs. Oklahoma) (49.2%)
Now the expected number of wins for each category:
40-49%: 0.895 of 2 (19.8% chance of 2-0)
50-59%: 0.505 of 1 (50.5% chance of 1-0)
60-69%: 1.283 of 2 (41% chance of 2-0)
70-79%: 1.538 of 2 (59.1% chance of 2-0)
80-89%: 4.259 of 5 (44.7% chance of 5-0)
90-99%: 2.905 of 3 (90.7% chance of 3-0)
Just like we’ve done each week so far, let’s bring in each category of the Top 25 (Top 1-5, 6-10, etc.) and check their likelihoods:
Top 1-5: 1.965 of 2 (96.6% chance of 2-0)
Top 6-10: 1.811 of 2 (81.9% chance of 2-0)
Top 11-15: 3.141 of 4 (37.3% chance of 4-0)
Top 16-20: 3.757 of 5 (20.7% chance of 5-0)
Top 21-25: 2.56 of 4 (13.8% chance of 4-0)
This is a pretty easy curve to look at, and one that’s just very obvious. The likelihood of the category going undefeated decreases significantly past the top 10, and gets worse the further down you go. At the very least, we can expect about one upset each from the three lowest categories. This week’s three top upset picks are Oklahoma State over #22 Texas, California over #18 Utah, and Indiana over #17 Michigan State.
Reasoning for each: Oklahoma State could have cashed last week if Mike Gundy knew how to run a fourth-and-goal play call and/or didn’t fumble; Cal appears to be this year’s Team No One on Earth Enjoys Playing, and it seems pretty obvious that Michigan State is in rebuilding mode. More quantifiable, they all host the lowest chances of winning in their individual pods. I’d like to hunt down one in the Top 11-15 range, but I don’t like any of the situations the underdogs are in at all: Georgia Tech looked positively woeful offensively against Clemson last week and Miami’s had two weeks to prep for the triple option; Baylor losing to Iowa State seems unfathomable, no matter what season; Illinois is atrocious; UNC has easily the best odds of an upset, but this is a situationally poor game for them (emotional comeback victory over Pitt previous week and playing against a pissed-off Florida State team that can run like crazy).
To find a fourth upset, let’s look back at those win categories. Notice anything interesting? My eyes immediately jump to that 80-89% win range, which has the third-lowest likelihood of going undefeated. Pretty shocking, no? That means someone’s looking at a major haul of an upset. Again, we base this on likelihood, so you can rule the Top 16-20 out, which has no 80-89% range teams. The Top 11-15 has two in Baylor and Nebraska, but the likelihood of that group losing one of those plus the Miami game is just 4.5%.
Let’s roll back to the Top 21-25, which already fell alarmingly close to two upset losses. There’s two options here: a Florida team that just gave up 38 in a row to Tennessee or a Boise State team that is fine, but nothing beautiful. Neither one really excites me as an upset pick, either: Florida looked pretty great for one half against the Vols, and Boise’s already beaten two teams significantly superior to Utah State. The best pick I’ve got is situational here: Florida just came off of a major rivalry loss to a team that hadn’t beaten them in nearly 12 years, is missing their starting quarterback, and is about to play a team whose defense has looked pretty good in three of four games. (Georgia Tech is nearly always forgivable.) So, in true “throwing your hands up” fashion, eff it: Vanderbilt over #23 Florida is the stretch pick by the metrics this week, as it’s the most likely event of the 80-89% group. There are two things I love about this game: the under on 40.5 (neither offense will top 21 by themselves) and situationally both ways. Florida finished the Tennessee game on the losing end of a 38-7 run, while Vanderbilt just beat a solid Western Kentucky team on the road by scoring a TD on the final play then stopping WKU’s two-point attempt in overtime. They’ll be riding high while Florida will be travelling to Nashville to play a game they likely have little interest in on a noon kickoff.
Last week’s picks went 0-3, making us 5-4 on the year. This week’s upset picks for Top 25 teams playing unranked opponents: Oklahoma State over #22 Texas, California over #18 Utah, Indiana over #17 Michigan State, and Vanderbilt over #23 Florida as the stretch pick of the week per the metrics.
Now, let’s look at the Top 25 games. By the numbers, we’re looking at a composite total of 1.52 upsets from these four games – basically a coin flip between one or two upsets, and we met the expected total of 1.81 (2) last week. If we’re being honest, some won’t really even be upsets, but I digress.
Again, the Top 25 categories for each involved higher-ranked team:
Top 1-5: 0.753 expected losses
Top 6-10: 0.486 expected losses
Top 11-15: 0.278 expected losses
So, if you’re a betting man, the obvious immediate look is to either #3 Louisville or #4 Michigan losing. Let’s take the much more likely event, both subjectively and objectively: #5 Clemson over #3 Louisville. If you need a second one, it seems that the Top 6-10 is a lot more likely than Tennessee losing to what smells distinctly like an 8-4 Georgia team. If there’s going to be a second upset this week, it’s likely #10 Washington over #7 Stanford. But, again, if I’m looking to bet, I lean away from looking at a second upset. We’ll see. By the metrics, our picks to meet the 1.52 (rounded up to 2) “upsets” are #10 Washington over #7 Stanford and #5 Clemson over #3 Louisville. If you’re just picking one, take #5 Clemson over #3 Louisville.
We’re rolling large! After a Thursday night stumble in which Houston soundly defeated my Cincinnati upset pick (though Cincinnati did lead entering the fourth quarter), all three upsets singled out by my model rang true on Saturday. The two weeks I’ve ran out the Excel-based metrics model that draws from Bill Connelly’s S&P+, ESPN’s FPI, and the Massey Ratings, the model has nailed all five upsets that have happened between a Top 25 opponent and an unranked opponent. It even sold me on North Dakota State over formerly #13 Iowa, which is a gigantic deal! Thanks to Mark Helfrich being a poor head coach, we came through on Nebraska over #22 Oregon. Even California and Sonny Dykes beat #11 Texas.
As a note, the normal Las Vegas underdog win rate is around 21%. I’m at 83% after two weeks and six games (5-1). This is meaningless because small sample sizes are terribly meaningless, but if I can end up breaking 60% by season’s end, we might have something really special here.
This week, the models expect anywhere from 3.55 losses in 12 games (S&P+) to 3.04 (Massey). Collectively, they average an expectation of 3.3 upsets this weekend. We finished one below expectation last weekend, so just as it was last week, we’ll include three upset picks and a fourth stretch pick as sort of a regression to the mean.
For the first time, I’m including my metrics below, with Top 25 v. Top 25 teams included and highlighted:
And without, which is much more important to this article.
Spreadsheet legend for the numbers on the top right: the top number is the total number of expected wins from that group; the bottom number is the percentage likelihood that the noted group goes undefeated.
As usual, the groups by win percentage are listed below:
40-49% (1-1 last week): #24 Utah (vs. USC) (47.3%)
60-69% (3-0 last week): #16 Baylor (vs. Oklahoma State) (62.1%), #20 Nebraska (at Northwestern) (65.2%), #13 Florida State (at South Florida) (66.2%)
70-79% (1-0 last week): #9 Washington (at Arizona) (75.8%), #5 Clemson (at Georgia Tech) (79.9%)
80-89% (0-1 last week): #4 Michigan (vs. Penn State) (82.4%), #3 Louisville (at Marshall) (85.5%)
90-99% (8-0 last week): #6 Houston (at Texas State) (91.6%), #1 Alabama (vs. Kent State) (99.4%)
The expected win totals for each of these groups:
40-49%: 0.473 of 1
50-59%: 1.144 of 2 (32.7% chance of 2-0)
60-69%: 1.935 of 3 (26.8% chance of 3-0)
70-79%: 1.557 of 2 (60.6% chance of 2-0)
80-89%: 1.679 of 2 (70.5% chance of 2-0)
90-99%: 1.91 of 2 (91.1% chance of 2-0)
Now, let’s note that the 60-69% group went 3-0 last week. That’s unlikely to happen again, not least because Georgia needed a fourth and 10 touchdown from a true freshman QB with a minute left to beat Missouri, but also because of these probabilities. The odds of this group going 3-0 last week were just 25.3%; the chances of the group moving to 6-0 over two weeks would be 6.7%.
Anyway, let’s make some picks. Based on the above probabilities in the Excel spreadsheet, here’s the expected number of wins for each fifth of the Top 25, broken down further:
Top 1-5: 3.47 of 4 (56% chance of 4-0)
Top 6-10: 2.23 of 3 (38.6% chance of 3-0)
Top 11-15: 0.662 of 1 (66.2% chance of 1-0)
Top 16-20: 1.86 of 3 (23.8% chance of 3-0)
Top 21-25: 0.473 of 1 (47.3% chance of 1-0)
If we’re looking for three upsets, we’re going to hit the following categories, as they’re the most likely to find upsets: Top 6-10, Top 16-20, and Top 21-25. Adjusting this for the above win probability categories and composite ratings that show us one upset win for each of the three lowest groups in win percentage (40-49%, 50-59%, and 60-69%), we get the following most likely upsets: USC over #24 Utah, UCLA over #7 Stanford, and Oklahoma State over #16 Baylor.
Let’s rationalize these as best as we can, starting with the pick I hate the most. USC has looked about as excited to start the Clay Helton regime as I am when my friend group decides on Regional Tex-Mex Restaurant of the Week. This isn’t quite as much about USC’s strengths as it is about Utah’s very prominent weaknesses. The Utes currently rank 98th in offensive S&P+ and have yet to drop more than 34 points on any opponent despite drawing Southern Utah and San Jose State in two of their first three games. New QB Troy Williams has already thrown four interceptions, and he’ll be playing a USC secondary that is far and away the least-awful part of a very disappointing defense thus far. If Utah wins this, it’ll be because they topped 200 yards on the ground, not because of anything Williams does or doesn’t do. I don’t see at all how Utah can score enough to put USC away, so I’m taking Sam Darnold and company on the road here.
UCLA, much like their crosstown partners, are also waiting to post an impressive performance of some kind, though at least UCLA forced overtime with their opening week SEC sparring partner. UCLA’s offensive points per game is lagging far behind their statistical expected output, which usually means a breakout is nigh. Why not against a Stanford defense performing far ahead of what the stats expect? Regression to the mean is very real in sports, and I think this might be a great test case for it. Critical to UCLA’s success: force Ryan Burns to pass and you will win. He’s yet to attempt more than 18 passes in either of Stanford’s first two games, and Christian McCaffrey has yet to really look like Christian McCaffrey.
Oklahoma State is a great buy-low. They came out flat in a weird noon home game against a secretly good Central Michigan team, won a close one anyway, then lost on a play that shouldn’t have happened. They play a Baylor defense that allowed 36.3 points per game to top 25 offenses in 2015 and likely isn’t any better. Oklahoma State rebounded from the CMU loss by dumping 45 points on a Pat Narduzzi defense against Pittsburgh. I think people are selling this OSU team in the wrong spot because of the wacky loss; win this and they have a great October schedule to get back in the national conversation.
Now, if we’re anticipating a fourth upset to make up for the lack of a fourth last weekend, we need to go big again. We found gold in the 80-89% range with North Dakota State last weekend, but it was situationally perfect: Iowa at home with a mediocre offense against a great coach and team that was underrated because of being in the FCS. I would prefer to fade that this week, as expecting the rough equivalent of a 1 in 7 event to happen two weeks in a row is fool’s gold. That’ll rule out #4 Michigan and #3 Marshall. We’ve already picked out the three groups most likely to find an upset with one upset from each level of confidence, so that takes away #18 LSU, #20 Nebraska, and #13 Florida State. It is incredibly unlikely that a 90+% team loses, so remove #6 Houston and #1 Alabama. That leaves us with 70-79% and two games: #9 Washington at Arizona and #5 Clemson at Georgia Tech.
Let’s go back and look at that AP Top 25 breakdown: we’ve already bought our upsets from Top 6-10, Top 16-20, and Top 21-25. By taking out Florida State from consideration, we’re ruling out Top 11-15. That leaves the Top 5. Which one of these teams is the most likely team to lose from the Top 5, though it’s far from a certainty? Clemson. Let’s throw a dart and have some fun with a game in a weird and uncomfortable situation for the favorite: Georgia Tech over #5 Clemson on a Thursday night in Atlanta.
Here’s my rationale: Clemson technically has all of four days to run and prepare for a triple option offense. They finally looked like the Clemson everyone anticipated seeing this year on Saturday, but it was against woeful South Carolina State. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, dropped 38 points and 516 yards on a top 20 Vanderbilt defense. Paul Johnson is quietly pretty successful against Clemson and Swinney, having more wins against the Tigers than anyone not named Florida State. ACC favorites in Thursday night games are also just 7-6 over the last three years. I’m not totally positive this one happens, but after upsets coming from the 90-99% and 80-89% groups the last two weeks with one per week, it looks like it’s 70-79%’s turn this time out. Sorry, Clemson. (Alternately, if this one misses: sorry, Washington.) As the metrics only see three upsets, I don’t advise this one, but it’s worth a roll of the dice towards the season total. We’ll use this as a subjective test vs. the metrics, and I will still count it to my total.
To recap, our picks last week: Houston over #6 Cincinnati (miss), California over #11 Texas (make), North Dakota State over #13 Iowa (make), and Nebraska over #22 Oregon (make). Through two weeks, we’re 5-1.
This week: Utah over #24 USC, UCLA over #7 Stanford, Oklahoma State over #16 Baylor, and Georgia Tech over #5 Clemson (stretch pick, subjective choice).
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