There are some disclaimers that probably should be noted at the top of this post: the tagline you see on the site says ‘170 days of NBALP,’ or NBA League Pass. I love the NBA and primarily write about basketball, because it comes much easier for me. Writing about my other favorite sport, college football, has proven to be near impossible for me at times; the mythology and coverage of the sport is such that I’m afraid of mishandling it much more than I am confident in providing an original viewpoint.
Lucky for me, writing about college football schedules is no major frame of art on the level of a Picasso or a Kanye West; perhaps more on the level of a Tame Impala openly ripping off others to make a flaccid and mildly agreeable recipe. (Sorry, fans of this band who I have been subjected to excess marketing of for four years now. It is not your fault.) To make sure I tried to get the best of both stories, I used both a subjective and an objective take, neither my own view: Phil Steele’s end-of-year Top 40 rankings and Bill Connelly’s freely available S&P rankings.
To my joy and surprise, both came back with enough variance that I can provide both rankings. The top two weeks as judged by Connelly’s stats ranked fifth and seventh in the Steele rankings, while Steele’s #1 and #2 came in third and fifth with S&P. I have no idea why this makes me so fascinated, but I also plan out my weekends months in advance during football season so as to avoid unnecessary circumstances in which an important moment can be missed.
For the final calculation of weeks, I used a simple equation: Tier One games + 0.5(Tier Two games) = result. Tier One games are any game featuring two projected Top 25 opponents facing each other; Tier Two games are:
- Any game between projected Top 21-40 opponents
- A top 26-40 team playing a Top 25 team on the road
- A Top 50 home dog playing a Top 30 team within 7 projected points
Basically, Tier Two games are all about low-end Top 25 teams or teams solidly located in the Others Receiving Votes category. These games are still watchable, but certainly not on the level of the Tier One games.
Finally, I averaged the two calculations together to try and give you an average picture of what the best weeks of this season should end up being. This inspired an idea that I’ll go into on a subsequent post: what are the best weeks of college football (as judged by the AP Poll Archive) since 2005 (the last season that Matt Sarzyniak‘s site goes back to)? The three readers of this site will see that soon, with any luck.
Your weeks are ranked in ascending order below, so as to make an inverted pyramid as I was taught in high school and college journalism classes and so as to show that I learned something from said classes. Tiers are in parentheses, and (T1/T2) represents where one system believed a game was Tier One and the other determined Tier Two.
1. Week 13, November 22-26 (Average rating: 8.5 good or better games)
Phil Steele: 8.5, S&P: 8.5
I think Week 13 and Week 5 are the only two weeks that both systems came up with the same number of viewable games for, which makes sense to me. One week is agreeably great by everyone’s standards; the other is agreeably mediocre. Anyway, Week 13 is awesome and has a lot of awesome games spread throughout its long, Thanksgiving weekend:
- LSU at Texas A&M (T1), Thursday
- NC State at North Carolina (T2), Friday
- Arkansas at Missouri (T2), Friday
- TCU at Texas (T1/T2), Friday
- Nebraska at Iowa (T1/T2), Friday
- Florida at Florida State (T1), Saturday
- Michigan at Ohio State (T1), Saturday
- Michigan State at Penn State (T2), Saturday
- Notre Dame at USC (T1), Saturday
- Auburn at Alabama (T1), Saturday
- Mississippi State at Ole Miss (T1/T2), Saturday
That’s eleven games total worth watching in a 48-ish hour span, with 5 absolutely must-watch games and four of those occurring in one day. What a great weekend to be alive.
2. Week 11, November 8-12 (Average rating: 8)
Phil Steele: 9, S&P: 7
There are no true brightly-blinking MARQUEE GAMES!!! at this point in time, but it seems like there are about 12 A-minus games. Also, huge week for the Pac-12!
- Utah at Arizona State (T2), Thursday
- Michigan at Iowa (T1/T2), Saturday
- Pittsburgh at Clemson (T2), Saturday
- Baylor at Oklahoma (T1), Saturday
- West Virginia at Texas (T2), Saturday
- Stanford at Oregon (T1), Saturday
- USC at Washington (T1), Saturday
- Auburn at Georgia (T1), Saturday
- Mississippi State at Alabama (T1/T2), Saturday
- LSU at Arkansas (T1/T2), Saturday
- Ole Miss at Texas A&M (T1), Saturday
Also eleven games worth watching and five must-watch games, but the best game of this week (either Stanford at Oregon or USC at Washington) would be about the third-best game of Week 13.
3. Week 3, September 15-17 (Average rating: 7.75)
Phil Steele: 6.5, S&P: 9
There’s a lot of good games that could become great here as well, but there is a ton of name power to be found.
- Florida State at Louisville (T1), Saturday
- Alabama at Ole Miss (T1), Saturday
- Oregon at Nebraska (T1/T2), Saturday
- Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State (T2), Saturday
- Texas A&M at Auburn (T1), Saturday
- Mississippi State at LSU (T1/T2), Saturday
- Michigan State at Notre Dame (T1), Saturday
- Ohio State at Oklahoma (T1), Saturday
- USC at Stanford (T1), Saturday
- UCLA at BYU (T2), Saturday
Look at all those high-profile and very important games! Six Tier One games, which I believe is the most of any week. If nothing else, this will be my personal favorite week of the year…that I have to miss for a wedding between two people I love very much. Can’t win them all.
4. Week 1, September 1-5 (Average rating: 7.75)
Phil Steele: 8, S&P: 7.5
It’s very remarkable that an opening weekend called one of the greatest weekends of all time slots fourth in these rankings, but some context is required. In my friend group, there was instant surprise to the announcement of Oklahoma-Houston, a game between two 2015 top ten teams, being a noon game. However: neither ranking system I used seems to particularly buy into Houston very much (Phil Steele 30th in Power Poll, S&P 54th) and both really love Oklahoma as a legitimate top 5 team, which may lend some credence to my growing thought that this is a blowout-in-waiting. The other factor in this being a somewhat overhyped weekend: there are no Tier One or Two games until Saturday at noon, only Oklahoma-Houston in the noon slot is really worth watching, and games like Notre Dame-Texas and BYU-Arizona (I’m serious) are suffering from just a little too much name recognition. But! It’s still a very good schedule.
- Oklahoma vs. Houston (T2), Saturday
- LSU vs. Wisconsin (T2), Saturday
- UCLA at Texas A&M (T1), Saturday
- North Carolina vs. Georgia (T1/T2), Saturday
- USC vs. Alabama (T1), Saturday
- Clemson at Auburn (T1), Saturday
- Notre Dame at Texas (T1/T2), Sunday
- Florida State vs. Ole Miss (T1), Monday
5. Week 4, September 22-24 (Average rating: 7.25)
Phil Steele: 5.5, S&P: 9
This week had easily the largest variance in rankings, and I think the explanation of why lacks much difficulty. Look at the below list of games and tell me how many you could go from “somewhat interested” to “very interested” in depending on the results of prior games:
- USC at Utah (T2), Friday
- Nebraska at Northwestern (T2), Saturday
- Pittsburgh at North Carolina (T2), Saturday
- Oklahoma State at Baylor (T1/T2), Saturday
- BYU vs. West Virginia (T2), Saturday
- Penn State at Michigan (T2), Saturday
- Wisconsin at Michigan State (T2), Sautrday
- Stanford at UCLA (T1), Saturday
- Florida at Tennessee (T1), Saturday
- LSU at Auburn (T1), Saturday
- Georgia at Ole Miss (T1), Saturday
- Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (T1/T2), Saturday
There are a lot of games just prior to these that have massive implications on this week’s national importance: USC-Alabama, USC-Stanford, Nebraska-Oregon, North Carolina-Georgia, Oklahoma State-Pittsburgh (yes), Penn State-Pittsburgh (also yes), LSU-Wisconsin, Michigan State-Notre Dame, UCLA-Texas A&M, Tennessee-Virginia Tech, Clemson-Auburn, Florida State-Ole Miss, Arkansas-TCU. This weekend could be one of the greatest of the last decade, or it could be Just Another Weekend. I have no idea how this shakes out right now, but a Saturday in October (otherwise a dead month) with a potential six Top 25 vs. Top 25 matchups is a fantastic thing to hope for.
6. Week 6, October 5-8 (Average rating: 6.5)
Phil Steele: 7, S&P: 6
This one, in comparison, looks easy to see the highs and lows of.
- Texas vs. Oklahoma (T1/T2), Saturday
- Notre Dame at NC State (T2), Saturday
- Florida State at Miami (T1/T2), Saturday
- Virginia Tech at North Carolina (T2), Saturday
- BYU at Michigan State (T2), Saturday
- Washington at Oregon (T1), Saturday
- UCLA at Arizona State (T2), Saturday
- LSU at Florida (T1), Saturday
- Alabama at Arkansas (T1/T2), Saturday
- Auburn at Mississippi State (T1/T2), Saturday
- Tennessee at Texas A&M (T1), Saturday
A massive Saturday for the SEC West. (And the East too, if you think about it.) Also a good Saturday for could-be-very-important ACC games!
7. Week 10, November 1-5 (Average rating: 5.75)
Phil Steele: 6, S&P: 5.5
One massively important game to the entire college football landscape and then a lot of A-minus games. However, they could be pretty important if the ball bounces their way.
- Iowa at Penn State (T2), Saturday
- Nebraska at Ohio State (T2), Saturday
- Florida State at NC State (T2), Saturday
- Pittsburgh at Miami (T2), Saturday
- TCU at Baylor (T1/T2), Saturday
- Oregon at USC (T1), Saturday
- Florida at Arkansas (T1/T2), Saturday
- Alabama at LSU (T1), Saturday
- Texas A&M at Mississippi State (T1/T2), Saturday
The misfortune of CBS typically demanding (correctly so) that Alabama-LSU be broadcast in 8 PM Eastern prime time is the likelihood of Oregon-USC being a direct competitor at 8 PM that night on ABC. This isn’t going to be USC’s year of a return to dominance, but for them to be 6-2 and in the top 15 facing a top 8 Oregon team at 7-1 and in direct and heated competition for the Pac-12 North title would be a very important game for many teams. PlusThe solution: multiple televisions, or a laptop.
8. Week 9, October 27-29 (Average rating: 5.75)
Phil Steele: 5.5, S&P: 6
Less exciting than the next week, but more exciting than the previous…I think. This is generally what your average week will look like this season:
- Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh (T2), Thursday
- Miami (FL) at Notre Dame (T1/T2), Saturday
- Georgia vs. Florida (T1/T2), Saturday
- Nebraska at Wisconsin (T2), Saturday
- Clemson at Florida State (T1), Saturday
- West Virginia at Oklahoma State (T2), Saturday
- Baylor at Texas (T1/T2, Saturday)
- Michigan at Michigan State (T1), Saturday
- Washington at Utah (T2), Saturday
- Auburn at Ole Miss (T1), Saturday
It’s really almost perfect: decent ACC game on Thursday? Check. Presumably freezing Tier Two Big Ten game late in the day for no reason? Check. Historically competitive rivalries with at least one of the two teams underperforming their projected talent? Double check! Likely late-night overload of promising games between likely Top 15 (or 10) teams that have strong humiliation potential for one or both teams involved? CHECK!!!!!! Oh, and multiple Big 12 games throughout the day that go down to the last possession and shed years off of the lives of devoted fans? Check and check. West Virginia-Oklahoma State is this year’s dark horse candidate for best Vine game.
9. Week 8, October 20-22 (Average rating: 5.25)
Phil Steele: 4.5, S&P: 6
Oddly good Thursday slate to be found here, plus some other solid viewing experiences.
- Miami at Virginia Tech (T2), Thursday
- BYU at Boise State (T2), Thursday
- Ohio State at Penn State (T2), Saturday
- TCU at West Virginia (T2), Saturday
- Wisconsin at Iowa (T2), Saturday
- Utah at UCLA (T2), Saturday
- Texas A&M at Alabama (T1), Saturday
- Arkansas at Auburn (T1/T2), Saturday
- Ole Miss at LSU (T1), Saturday
Thanks to the SEC West for saving this week. Not sure what we’d do without you! There’s something oddly fascinating about a likely 7 PM LSU start where Hugh Freeze beats an undefeated Tigers team then loses at home to Auburn a week later. Subjectively, this would rank in my bottom three.
10. Week 12, November 15-19 (Average rating: 5.25)
Phil Steele: 5, S&P: 5.5
Blah week. I don’t have much to say about these, honestly.
- Louisville at Houston (T2), Thursday
- Virginia Tech at Notre Dame (T2), Saturday
- Miami at NC State (T2), Saturday
- Oklahoma State at TCU (T2), Saturday
- Oklahoma at West Virginia (T2), Saturday
- Ohio State at Michigan State (T1), Saturday
- USC at UCLA (T1), Saturday
- Oregon at Utah (T2), Saturday
- Arkansas at Mississippi State (T1/T2), Saturday
11. Week 5, September 29-October 1 (Average rating: 5)
Phil Steele: 5, S&P: 5
As a Tennessee fan, it gives me great joy (and great concern) to report that Tennessee’s three most visible games will be on the three worst weeks of the season. Better not screw it up. Someone please tell Butch Jones to hire a fourth-down coach.
- Stanford at Washington (T1), Friday
- Louisville at Clemson (T1), Saturday
- North Carolina at Florida State (T2), Saturday
- Texas at Oklahoma State (T2), Saturday
- Oklahoma at TCU (T1/T2), Saturday
- Wisconsin at Michigan (T2), Saturday
- Tennessee at Georgia (T1/T2), Saturday
What I’m saying is that if you have to get married in the fall and your team is not playing in one of these seven games…I won’t hold it totally against you. But I will also allow those in the audience to check their phones throughout the night in a semi-polite manner.
12. Week 7, October 13-15 (Average rating: 3.75)
Phil Steele: 3, S&P: 4.5
This is a good example of a weekend that looks very thrilling on the surface – three of these games will directly affect the national title race – but you’ll be very bored otherwise, especially at noon. A good weekend to actually go to a game, in case you’ve forgotten that’s doable.
- Mississippi State at BYU (T2), Friday
- Stanford at Notre Dame (T1), Saturday
- Ohio State at Wisconsin (T1), Saturday
- North Carolina at Virginia Tech (T2), Saturday
- Alabama at Tennessee (T1), Saturday
- Ole Miss at Arkansas (T1/T2), Saturday
Outside of the obvious three (and maybe a fourth with OM-Arkansas), not much to get excited about here. A couple games outside the national realm that could be fun but were solid Tier Three games: Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee (Saturday) and West Virginia at Texas Tech (Saturday).
13. Week 2, September 8-10 (Average rating: 2.5)
Phil Steele: 3, S&P: 2
This is simply horrific, and probably a crime against someone to follow up a very good opening weekend with easily the worst week of the season.
- Penn State at Pittsburgh (T2), Saturday
- Arkansas at TCU (T2), Saturday
- BYU at Utah (T2), Saturday
- Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (T2), Saturday
By my personal system, VT-Tennessee is the only game that could be reasonably pushed to Tier One…and it’s only because it’s in the middle of a NASCAR track. But the actual game will be poor – people are underestimating the effects that the distance of the stands and the overall odd layout of the field and track will have on quarterbacks. The team that runs better wins…which is very obviously Tennessee. Anyway, that’s beside my ultimate point: this week is horrid, skip it if you need to.
The aforementioned top 10 weeks ranking of the last 10 seasons will come soon.
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